Sarmiento Junin
vs
Huracan
Liga Profesional Argentina prediction
The model makes it 47% Sarmiento Junin, 21% draw, 32% Huracan — fair odds of 2.13, 4.76 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (8%).
Expected goals: Sarmiento Junin 2.16, Huracan 1.77.
Both teams to score: 74%. Over 2.5 goals: 75%, under 2.5: 25%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Leading scorers
Sarmiento Junin
- J. Marabel9 goals3 assists
Huracan
- J. Caicedo9 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Sarmiento Junin carry a model rating of 6.6 against 6.64 for Huracan. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Sarmiento Junin L-L-L-W-W; Huracan L-D-W-L-D.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.16 goals for Sarmiento Junin and 1.77 for Huracan. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Sarmiento Junin rate 0.90 in attack and 1.52 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Huracan rate 0.83 and 1.27.
That points to 75% for over two and a half goals and 74% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (8%), 1-1 (8%), 2-2 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sarmiento Junin the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.16 expected goals for Sarmiento Junin against 1.77 for Huracan. Sarmiento Junin's attack/defence rating is 0.9/1.52 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.83/1.27 for Huracan.