BK Hacken
vs
Halmstad
Allsvenskan prediction
The model makes it 51% BK Hacken, 28% draw, 21% Halmstad — fair odds of 1.96, 3.57 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (14%).
Expected goals: BK Hacken 1.47, Halmstad 0.85.
Both teams to score: 45%. Over 2.5 goals: 41%, under 2.5: 59%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
BK Hacken
- L0-3away to Hammarby FF9 August 2026
- D1-1Kalmar FF1 August 2026
- D0-0AIK Stockholm27 July 2026
- W2-0away to Halmstad19 July 2026
- L3-4away to Orgryte IS11 July 2026
Halmstad
- L0-2Gais9 August 2026
- L0-2Sirius3 August 2026
- D1-1away to Gais26 July 2026
- L0-2BK Hacken19 July 2026
- L0-3away to Djurgardens IF13 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Allsvenskan table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | BK Hacken | 16 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 28 | 26 | +2 | 25 |
| 16 | Halmstad | 15 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 11 | 31 | -20 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
BK Hacken
- G. Lindgren7 goals
Halmstad
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
BK Hacken carry a model rating of 6.2 against 6.11 for Halmstad. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): BK Hacken L-W-D-D-L; Halmstad L-L-D-L-L.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.47 goals for BK Hacken and 0.85 for Halmstad. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
BK Hacken rate 0.47 in attack and 1.74 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Halmstad rate 0.35 and 1.66.
That points to 41% for over two and a half goals and 45% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-0 (14%), 1-1 (13%), 2-0 (11%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives BK Hacken the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.47 expected goals for BK Hacken against 0.85 for Halmstad. BK Hacken's attack/defence rating is 0.47/1.74 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.35/1.66 for Halmstad.