Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
vs
Atletico Tucuman
Liga Profesional Argentina prediction
The model makes it 27% Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto, 27% draw, 46% Atletico Tucuman — fair odds of 3.70, 3.70 and 2.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto 1.07, Atletico Tucuman 1.47.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Leading scorers
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
No league goals recorded yet.
Atletico Tucuman
- L. Díaz7 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto carry a model rating of 6.37 against 6.71 for Atletico Tucuman. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto L-W-L-D-L; Atletico Tucuman W-D-W-D-L.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.07 goals for Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto and 1.47 for Atletico Tucuman. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto rate 0.60 in attack and 1.57 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Atletico Tucuman rate 0.67 and 0.94.
That points to 47% for over two and a half goals and 51% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (13%), 0-1 (11%), 1-2 (9%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Atletico Tucuman the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto against 1.47 for Atletico Tucuman. Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto's attack/defence rating is 0.6/1.57 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.67/0.94 for Atletico Tucuman.