Lanus vs Independiente Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result
Final score: Lanus 1-3 Independiente.
Before kick-off the model made it 58% Lanus, 25% draw, 17% Independiente — fair odds of 1.72, 4.00 and 5.88.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Lanus at 58%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Lanus vs Independiente
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 26Nahuel LosadaG
- 33Tomás GuidaraD
- 24Carlos IzquierdozD
- 35Ronaldo De JesusD
- 6Sasha MarcichD
- 5Felipe Peña BiaforeM
- 30Agustín CardozoM
- 11Eduardo SalvioM
- 23Ramiro CarreraM
- 25Dylan AquinoM
- 20Allan WlkF
- 16Matías SepúlvedaM
- 19Yoshan ValoisF
- 77Lucas BesozziF
- 3Nicolás MorgantiniD
- 38Benjamin AcostaF
- 1Franco PetroliG
- 40Tomás LópezD
- 4Gonzalo PerezD
- 13José CanaleD
- 33Rodrigo ReyG
- 4Santiago AriasD
- 26Kevin LomónacoD
- 35Juan Miguel ArrayagoD
- 22Facundo ZabalaD
- 23Iván MarconeM
- 7Santiago MontielM
- 16Mateo Perez CurciM
- 14Lautaro MillánM
- 24Josias PalaisM
- 9Gabriel ÁvalosF
- 32David MartínezM
- 8Maxi MezaF
- 28Maximiliano GutiérrezF
- 19Matías AbaldoF
- 20Facundo CruzM
- 77Santiago MeleG
- 39Ramiro MartinoD
- 40Joshua VelárdezD
- 21Fernando ClosterD
Form going into Lanus vs Independiente
Lanus
All competitions we cover
- W3-0away to Talleres Cordoba12 August 2026
- L1-2away to Union Santa Fe6 August 2026
- L0-1Instituto Cordoba3 August 2026
- W1-0San Lorenzo26 July 2026
Independiente
All competitions we cover
- L0-1Platense9 August 2026
- L0-1away to Velez Sarsfield3 August 2026
- W1-0Newell's Old Boys31 July 2026
- W2-0away to Estudiantes La Plata26 July 2026
What these results say
- Lanus scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Independiente had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Lanus | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 19 | 12 | +7 | 26 |
| 7 | Independiente | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 15 | 16 | -1 | 23 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Lanus vs Independiente
- 13 February 2026Independiente 2–0 LanusLiga Profesional Argentina
- 13 October 2025Independiente 0–2 LanusLiga Profesional Argentina
- 6 April 2025Lanus 1–1 IndependienteLiga Profesional Argentina
- 18 October 2024Lanus 0–2 IndependienteLiga Profesional Argentina
- 27 May 2023Independiente 1–1 LanusLiga Profesional Argentina
Leading scorers: Lanus and Independiente
Lanus
No player in Liga Profesional Argentina's leading scorers — 19 league goals as a side.
Independiente
GoalsAssists
- G. Ávalos115
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Independiente won 3–1 at Lanus. The model had leaned towards a win for Lanus at 58% and given a win for Independiente 17%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 6 matches like this one. The goals: L. Millan 37' for Independiente, L. Millan 47' for Independiente, A. Wlk 50' for Lanus, M. Gutierrez 90' for Independiente. On expected goals it finished 1.87–1.16.