Lanus
vs
Independiente
Liga Profesional Argentina prediction
The model makes it 52% Lanus, 28% draw, 20% Independiente — fair odds of 1.92, 3.57 and 5.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (14%).
Expected goals: Lanus 1.48, Independiente 0.82.
Both teams to score: 44%. Over 2.5 goals: 40%, under 2.5: 60%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Lanus
- L1-2away to Union Santa Fe6 August 2026
- L0-1Instituto Cordoba3 August 2026
- W1-0San Lorenzo26 July 2026
- L0-2away to Argentinos Juniors10 May 2026
- D0-0Deportivo Riestra2 May 2026
Independiente
- L0-1Platense9 August 2026
- L0-1away to Velez Sarsfield3 August 2026
- W1-0Newell's Old Boys31 July 2026
- W2-0away to Estudiantes La Plata26 July 2026
- L1-3away to Rosario Central10 May 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Lanus | 16 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 18 | 15 | +3 | 24 |
| 5 | Independiente | 16 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 24 | 20 | +4 | 24 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Lanus
No league goals recorded yet.
Independiente
- G. Ávalos11 goals5 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Lanus carry a model rating of 6.78 against 6.56 for Independiente. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Lanus D-L-W-L-L; Independiente L-W-W-L-L.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.48 goals for Lanus and 0.82 for Independiente. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Lanus rate 0.59 in attack and 0.79 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Independiente rate 0.74 and 1.33.
That points to 40% for over two and a half goals and 44% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-0 (14%), 1-1 (13%), 2-0 (11%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Independiente, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Lanus a 4.5% chance of the title and Independiente 2.6%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Lanus the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Lanus against 0.82 for Independiente. Lanus's attack/defence rating is 0.59/0.79 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.74/1.33 for Independiente.