Vasteras SK FK
vs
Malmo FF
Allsvenskan prediction
Our model says: Vasteras SK FK 1–0 Malmo FF
The model makes it 51% Vasteras SK FK, 28% draw, 21% Malmo FF — fair odds of 1.96, 3.57 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (12%).
Expected goals: Vasteras SK FK 1.88, Malmo FF 0.80.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Vasteras SK FK vs Malmo FF
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 12 | 11 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 12 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 8 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Vasteras SK FK wins, grey are draws, red are Malmo FF wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Vasteras SK FK at 51% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 630 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Vasteras SK FK vs Malmo FF
Vasteras SK FK
- W4-1away to AIK Stockholm12 September 2026
- L0-1Sirius5 September 2026
- W3-1away to BK Hacken29 August 2026
- D0-0Kalmar FF23 August 2026
- L0-3away to IF Elfsborg14 August 2026
Malmo FF
- W4-1Orgryte IS13 September 2026
- D0-0AIK Stockholm7 September 2026
- W1-0away to Sirius31 August 2026
- L0-3Djurgardens IF24 August 2026
- W1-0away to Gais16 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Allsvenskan table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Vasteras SK FK | 21 | 9 | 5 | 7 | 32 | 35 | -3 | 32 |
| 5 | Malmo FF | 21 | 10 | 3 | 8 | 37 | 31 | +6 | 33 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Vasteras SK FK vs Malmo FF
- 24 May 2026Malmo FF 2–3 Vasteras SK FKAllsvenskan
- 2 March 2025Malmo FF 3–0 Vasteras SK FKSvenska Cupen
- 19 October 2024Vasteras SK FK 1–1 Malmo FFAllsvenskan
- 20 April 2024Malmo FF 1–0 Vasteras SK FKAllsvenskan
- 21 February 2021Malmo FF 1–2 Vasteras SK FKSvenska Cupen
Leading scorers: Vasteras SK FK and Malmo FF
Vasteras SK FK
- M. Ladefoged9 goals2 assists
- A. Taonsa6 goals
Malmo FF
- E. Botheim10 goals3 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Vasteras SK FK carry a model rating of 6.66 against 6.4 for Malmo FF. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.88 goals for Vasteras SK FK and 0.80 for Malmo FF. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Vasteras SK FK rate 0.88 in attack and 1.30 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Malmo FF rate 0.51 and 1.31.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Malmo FF, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Vasteras SK FK the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.88 expected goals for Vasteras SK FK against 0.8 for Malmo FF. Vasteras SK FK's attack/defence rating is 0.88/1.3 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.51/1.31 for Malmo FF.