19 September 2026, 13:00 UTC

Vasteras SK FK vs Malmo FF Allsvenskan prediction & result

Hitachi Energy Arena, Westeros
Full time2 – 0

Final score: Vasteras SK FK 2-0 Malmo FF.

Before kick-off the model made it 64% Vasteras SK FK, 21% draw, 15% Malmo FF — fair odds of 1.56, 4.76 and 6.67. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Vasteras SK FK at 64% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 1,294 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 57.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Vasteras SK FK99%Draw1%Malmo FF0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Axel Sountonoma Taonsaassist: jens magnusson
14'
karl gunnarsson
39'
45'
🔁Otto Rosengrenout: Mayckel Lahdo
⚽Axel Sountonoma Taonsaassist: jens magnusson
52'
61'
🔁Theodor Lundberghout: Jovan Milosavljević
🔁Ismet Lushakuout: Mattias Hellisdal
64'
🔁karl gunnarssonout: Abdelrahman Saidi
65'
73'
🔁Daniel Gudjohnsenout: Viggo Jeppsson
🔁Jack Tagessonout: Frédéric Nsabiyumva
81'
82'
🔁Stian Gregersenout: Bleon Kurtulus
82'
🔁Sead Hakšabanovićout: Malte Vilhelm Frejd Pålsson
🔁jens magnussonout: Jonny Melvin Ljungqvist
87'
🔁Herman·Magnussonout: Peter Amoran
87'

Match stats — Vasteras SK FK vs Malmo FF

38%Possession62%
10Shots22
4On target4
3Corners7

Line-ups

Vasteras SK FK 3-4-3
  • 34E. JägerG
  • 2H. MagnussonD
  • 4P. BondeD
  • 24J. TagessonD
  • 11S. GefvertM
  • 14I. LushakuM
  • 8M. DiagneM
  • 15J. KarlssonM
  • 19J. MagnussonF
  • 17A. TaonsaF
  • 5K. GunnarssonF
Substitutes
  • 23P. AmoranD
  • 7A. BoudahF
  • 1A. FagerströmG
  • 30M. HellisdalM
  • 28Madiou KeitaD
  • 20M. LjungqvistD
  • 18F. NsabiyumvaD
  • 9C. RisbjergF
  • 21V. WernerssonD
Coach: Alexander Rubin
Malmo FF 4-3-3
  • 1R. OlsenG
  • 17J. Stryger LarsenD
  • 5A. ĐurićD
  • 2S. GregersenD
  • 25BusanelloD
  • 7O. RosengrenM
  • 37A. SkogmarM
  • 47Theodor LundberghM
  • 45A. HoogF
  • 32D. GuðjohnsenF
  • 29S. HakšabanovićF
Substitutes
  • 50William Nieroth LundgrenG
  • 28J. MilosavljevićM
  • 15M. LahdoF
  • 4B. KurtulusD
  • 42V. JeppssonM
  • 44M. PålssonD
  • 6Y. KarabelyovM
  • 27J. DahlinG
  • 51V. HidalgoD
Coach: G. Helstrup

Form going into Vasteras SK FK vs Malmo FF

Vasteras SK FK

All competitions we cover

  • W4-1away to AIK Stockholm12 September 2026
  • L0-1Sirius5 September 2026
  • W3-1away to BK Hacken29 August 2026
  • D0-0Kalmar FF23 August 2026
  • L0-3away to IF Elfsborg14 August 2026

Malmo FF

All competitions we cover

  • W4-1Orgryte IS13 September 2026
  • D0-0AIK Stockholm7 September 2026
  • W1-0away to Sirius31 August 2026
  • L0-3Djurgardens IF24 August 2026
  • W1-0away to Gais16 August 2026

What these results say

  • Vasteras SK FK conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Allsvenskan table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6Vasteras SK FK2612593938+141
7Malmo FF26124104134+740

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Vasteras SK FK vs Malmo FF

  • 24 May 2026Malmo FF 2–3 Vasteras SK FKAllsvenskan
  • 2 March 2025Malmo FF 3–0 Vasteras SK FKSvenska Cupen
  • 19 October 2024Vasteras SK FK 1–1 Malmo FFAllsvenskan
  • 20 April 2024Malmo FF 1–0 Vasteras SK FKAllsvenskan
  • 21 February 2021Malmo FF 1–2 Vasteras SK FKSvenska Cupen

Leading scorers: Vasteras SK FK and Malmo FF

Vasteras SK FK

GoalsAssists

  • A. Taonsa101
  • M. Ladefoged92

Malmo FF

GoalsAssists

  • E. Botheim103

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Vasteras SK FK beat Malmo FF 2–0. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Vasteras SK FK at 64%. The goals: Axel Sountonoma Taonsa 14' for Vasteras SK FK, Axel Sountonoma Taonsa 52' for Vasteras SK FK.

How the call on Vasteras SK FK v Malmo FF has moved

First published on 5 Sep at 46% / 28% / 26% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 9 updates, it read 64% / 21% / 15%: the biggest move is Vasteras SK FK's chance of winning, up 18 points.

  1. Vasteras SK FK win64%▲ +18
  2. Draw21%▼ −7
  3. Malmo FF win15%▼ −11

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.