Degerfors IF
vs
Hammarby FF
Allsvenskan prediction
Our model says: Degerfors IF 0–1 Hammarby FF
The model makes it 30% Degerfors IF, 34% draw, 36% Hammarby FF — fair odds of 3.33, 2.94 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Degerfors IF 0.84, Hammarby FF 1.01.
Both teams to score: 37%. Over 2.5 goals: 28%, under 2.5: 72%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Degerfors IF vs Hammarby FF
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16 | 15 | 8 | 3 | ||
| 1 | 13 | 14 | 7 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 6 | 6 | 3 | |||
| 3 | 2 | 2 | ||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Degerfors IF wins, grey are draws, red are Hammarby FF wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Hammarby FF at 36% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Degerfors IF vs Hammarby FF
Degerfors IF
- L0-2away to Sirius14 September 2026
- W2-0Halmstad5 September 2026
- L0-2away to IF Elfsborg29 August 2026
- L0-2away to IF Brommapojkarna23 August 2026
- W3-0IFK Goteborg16 August 2026
Hammarby FF
- W3-1IF Brommapojkarna13 September 2026
- D1-1away to Orgryte IS6 September 2026
- L2-3away to AIK Stockholm30 August 2026
- W2-0Gais23 August 2026
- W4-0away to Kalmar FF16 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Allsvenskan table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Degerfors IF | 21 | 5 | 4 | 12 | 19 | 33 | -14 | 19 |
| 3 | Hammarby FF | 21 | 12 | 4 | 5 | 48 | 20 | +28 | 40 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Degerfors IF vs Hammarby FF
- 19 July 2026Hammarby FF 4–0 Degerfors IFAllsvenskan
- 3 November 2025Degerfors IF 1–1 Hammarby FFAllsvenskan
- 26 May 2025Hammarby FF 1–0 Degerfors IFAllsvenskan
- 25 May 2023Degerfors IF 2–2 Hammarby FFAllsvenskan
- 2 April 2023Hammarby FF 3–1 Degerfors IFAllsvenskan
- 22 August 2022Hammarby FF 5–1 Degerfors IFAllsvenskan
Leading scorers: Degerfors IF and Hammarby FF
Degerfors IF
No player in Allsvenskan's leading scorers — 19 league goals as a side.
Hammarby FF
- P. Abraham13 goals3 assists
- V. Lind9 goals11 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Degerfors IF carry a model rating of 6.37 against 6.59 for Hammarby FF. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 0.84 goals for Degerfors IF and 1.01 for Hammarby FF. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Degerfors IF rate 0.47 in attack and 1.31 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Hammarby FF rate 0.64 and 1.10.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Degerfors IF a 0% chance of the title and Hammarby FF 8%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Hammarby FF the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.84 expected goals for Degerfors IF against 1.01 for Hammarby FF. Degerfors IF's attack/defence rating is 0.47/1.31 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.64/1.1 for Hammarby FF.