IF Brommapojkarna
vs
IFK Goteborg
Allsvenskan prediction
Our model says: IF Brommapojkarna 3–1 IFK Goteborg
The model makes it 63% IF Brommapojkarna, 20% draw, 17% IFK Goteborg — fair odds of 1.59, 5.00 and 5.88. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 3-1 (8%).
Expected goals: IF Brommapojkarna 3.32, IFK Goteborg 1.20.
Both teams to score: 68%. Over 2.5 goals: 83%, under 2.5: 17%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: IF Brommapojkarna vs IFK Goteborg
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 1 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 4 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are IF Brommapojkarna wins, grey are draws, red are IFK Goteborg wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts IF Brommapojkarna at 63% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 630 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into IF Brommapojkarna vs IFK Goteborg
IF Brommapojkarna
- L1-3away to Hammarby FF13 September 2026
- W2-1IF Elfsborg6 September 2026
- L0-4away to Gais31 August 2026
- W2-0Degerfors IF23 August 2026
- W3-1Orgryte IS16 August 2026
IFK Goteborg
- W2-1Halmstad12 September 2026
- W4-1away to Mjallby AIF7 September 2026
- W1-0Orgryte IS30 August 2026
- D1-1IF Elfsborg23 August 2026
- L0-3away to Degerfors IF16 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Allsvenskan table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | IF Brommapojkarna | 21 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 30 | 35 | -5 | 27 |
| 9 | IFK Goteborg | 21 | 8 | 5 | 8 | 30 | 41 | -11 | 29 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: IF Brommapojkarna vs IFK Goteborg
- 17 July 2026IFK Goteborg 2–1 IF BrommapojkarnaAllsvenskan
- 21 September 2025IFK Goteborg 0–1 IF BrommapojkarnaAllsvenskan
- 1 June 2025IF Brommapojkarna 1–3 IFK GoteborgAllsvenskan
- 27 July 2024IFK Goteborg 3–4 IF BrommapojkarnaAllsvenskan
- 29 April 2024IF Brommapojkarna 0–3 IFK GoteborgAllsvenskan
- 16 September 2023IFK Goteborg 1–0 IF BrommapojkarnaAllsvenskan
Leading scorers: IF Brommapojkarna and IFK Goteborg
IF Brommapojkarna
- M. Hansen7 goals6 assists
IFK Goteborg
- S. Larsson7 goals2 assists
- T. Heintz6 goals5 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
IF Brommapojkarna carry a model rating of 6.44 against 6.1 for IFK Goteborg. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 3.32 goals for IF Brommapojkarna and 1.20 for IFK Goteborg. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
IF Brommapojkarna rate 0.73 in attack and 1.69 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; IFK Goteborg rate 0.59 and 2.80.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour IFK Goteborg, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives IF Brommapojkarna the highest probability at 63%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 3.32 expected goals for IF Brommapojkarna against 1.2 for IFK Goteborg. IF Brommapojkarna's attack/defence rating is 0.73/1.69 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.59/2.8 for IFK Goteborg.