Orgryte IS
vs
Sirius
Allsvenskan prediction
Our model says: Orgryte IS 1–0 Sirius
The model makes it 41% Orgryte IS, 30% draw, 29% Sirius — fair odds of 2.44, 3.33 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Orgryte IS 1.41, Sirius 0.99.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 43%, under 2.5: 57%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Orgryte IS vs Sirius
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 12 | 13 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 9 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Orgryte IS wins, grey are draws, red are Sirius wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Orgryte IS at 41% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Orgryte IS vs Sirius
Orgryte IS
- L1-4away to Malmo FF13 September 2026
- D1-1Hammarby FF6 September 2026
- L0-1away to IFK Goteborg30 August 2026
- D1-1Halmstad22 August 2026
- L1-3away to IF Brommapojkarna16 August 2026
Sirius
- W2-0Degerfors IF14 September 2026
- W1-0away to Vasteras SK FK5 September 2026
- L0-1Malmo FF31 August 2026
- L0-3BK Hacken21 August 2026
- L3-4away to Mjallby AIF15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Allsvenskan table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Orgryte IS | 21 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 24 | 47 | -23 | 15 |
| 1 | Sirius | 21 | 15 | 3 | 3 | 50 | 27 | +23 | 48 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Orgryte IS vs Sirius
- 11 May 2026Sirius 2–0 Orgryte ISAllsvenskan
- 17 October 2016Sirius 4–1 Orgryte ISSuperettan
- 15 May 2016Orgryte IS 1–2 SiriusSuperettan
Leading scorers: Orgryte IS and Sirius
Orgryte IS
- N. Christoffersson8 goals1 assists
Sirius
- R. Ure15 goals2 assists
- I. Bjerkebo13 goals5 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Orgryte IS carry a model rating of 6.32 against 6.3 for Sirius. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.41 goals for Orgryte IS and 0.99 for Sirius. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Orgryte IS rate 0.56 in attack and 1.61 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sirius rate 0.51 and 1.55.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Sirius, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Orgryte IS a 0% chance of the title and Sirius 77.9%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Orgryte IS the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Orgryte IS against 0.99 for Sirius. Orgryte IS's attack/defence rating is 0.56/1.61 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.51/1.55 for Sirius.