Orgryte IS vs Sirius Allsvenskan prediction & result
Final score: Orgryte IS 1-2 Sirius.
Before kick-off the model made it 39% Orgryte IS, 30% draw, 31% Sirius — fair odds of 2.56, 3.33 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Orgryte IS at 39% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Orgryte IS vs Sirius
Line-ups
- 44H. GustafssonG
- 18A. AnderssonD
- 33S. LagerlundD
- 25J. HammarD
- 6M. DyrestamD
- 19A. AndreassonD
- 14D. PaulsonM
- 23O. Parker-PriceM
- 8B. LaturnusM
- 22T. SanaM
- 17W. HofvanderF
- 3J. AzulayD
- 29Marlon EbietomereD
- 21W. KenndalM
- 2M. ParkerD
- 34A. RahmG
- 5C. StyffeD
- 7C. VindehallM
- 11David ObouF
- 9L. AnderssonF
- 34D. CelicG
- 5H. CastegrenD
- 2Mohamed SoumahD
- 4T. AnkerD
- 22O. KrusnellD
- 24V. SvenssonM
- 10M. HeierM
- 6M. LindbergM
- 30Z. VancsaF
- 9J. UnekenF
- 11I. BjerkeboF
- 29Ake AnderssonF
- 1I. DiawaraG
- 17N. JönssonF
- 21C. NildénM
- 7J. PerssonF
- 15S. SandbergD
- 18A. WikmanM
- 25O. AdinduF
- 20V. EkströmD
Form going into Orgryte IS vs Sirius
Orgryte IS
All competitions we cover
- L1-4away to Malmo FF13 September 2026
- D1-1Hammarby FF6 September 2026
- L0-1away to IFK Goteborg30 August 2026
- D1-1Halmstad22 August 2026
- L1-3away to IF Brommapojkarna16 August 2026
Sirius
All competitions we cover
- W2-0Degerfors IF14 September 2026
- W1-0away to Vasteras SK FK5 September 2026
- L0-1Malmo FF31 August 2026
- L0-3BK Hacken21 August 2026
- L3-4away to Mjallby AIF15 August 2026
What these results say
- Orgryte IS did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Orgryte IS conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Orgryte IS scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Allsvenskan table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Orgryte IS | 26 | 4 | 7 | 15 | 32 | 58 | -26 | 19 |
| 1 | Sirius | 26 | 17 | 4 | 5 | 56 | 34 | +22 | 55 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Orgryte IS vs Sirius
- 11 May 2026Sirius 2–0 Orgryte ISAllsvenskan
- 17 October 2016Sirius 4–1 Orgryte ISSuperettan
- 15 May 2016Orgryte IS 1–2 SiriusSuperettan
Leading scorers: Orgryte IS and Sirius
Orgryte IS
GoalsAssists
- N. Christoffersson81
Sirius
GoalsAssists
- R. Ure152
- I. Bjerkebo146
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Sirius won 2–1 at Orgryte IS. The model had leaned towards a win for Orgryte IS at 39% and given a win for Sirius 31%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Henrik Castegren 7' for Sirius, Victor Svensson 62' for Sirius, S.Lagerlund 90+4' for Orgryte IS.
How the call on Orgryte IS v Sirius has moved
First published on 5 Sep at 45% / 28% / 27% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 10 updates, it read 39% / 30% / 31%: the biggest move is Orgryte IS's chance of winning, down 6 points.
- Orgryte IS win39%▼ −6
- Draw30%▲ +2
- Sirius win31%▲ +4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.