Argentinos Juniors
vs
Aldosivi
Liga Profesional Argentina prediction
The model makes it 59% Argentinos Juniors, 23% draw, 18% Aldosivi — fair odds of 1.69, 4.35 and 5.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Argentinos Juniors 1.94, Aldosivi 1.00.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
The two sides
Argentinos Juniors carry a model rating of 6.77 against 6.61 for Aldosivi. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Argentinos Juniors W-W-W-W-W; Aldosivi D-L-L-L-D.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.94 goals for Argentinos Juniors and 1.00 for Aldosivi. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Argentinos Juniors rate 0.96 in attack and 1.12 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Aldosivi rate 0.64 and 1.07.
That points to 56% for over two and a half goals and 55% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (10%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 400 correct results out of 828 settled predictions (48%), with 78 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Argentinos Juniors the highest probability at 59%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.94 expected goals for Argentinos Juniors against 1 for Aldosivi. Argentinos Juniors's attack/defence rating is 0.96/1.12 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.64/1.07 for Aldosivi.