Budapest Honved
vs
Ujpest
NB I prediction
Our model says: Budapest Honved 2–1 Ujpest
The model makes it 37% Budapest Honved, 26% draw, 37% Ujpest — fair odds of 2.70, 3.85 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Budapest Honved 1.85, Ujpest 1.82.
Both teams to score: 71%. Over 2.5 goals: 71%, under 2.5: 29%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Budapest Honved and Ujpest are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Budapest Honved vs Ujpest
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Budapest Honved at 37% here. Across 2888 settled matches, 2241 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Budapest Honved vs Ujpest
Budapest Honved
- L1-3away to Puskas Academy18 September 2026
- L2-3away to Gyori ETO FC6 September 2026
- W1-0Zalaegerszegi TE29 August 2026
- L1-2Vasas14 August 2026
- D2-2away to Paks9 August 2026
Ujpest
- W2-1Zalaegerszegi TE20 September 2026
- D2-2away to Ferencvarosi TC6 September 2026
- W3-1Vasas29 August 2026
- L0-2away to Paks21 August 2026
- D1-1MTK Budapest15 August 2026
What these results say
- Budapest Honved scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Budapest Honved failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Budapest Honved conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Ujpest conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Ujpest scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Ujpest.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
NB I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Budapest Honved | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 6 |
| 4 | Ujpest | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 13 | +4 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Budapest Honved vs Ujpest
- 21 April 2023Budapest Honved 0–1 UjpestNB I
- 29 January 2023Ujpest 2–1 Budapest HonvedNB I
- 1 September 2022Budapest Honved 0–0 UjpestNB I
- 20 March 2022Ujpest 0–2 Budapest HonvedNB I
- 27 November 2021Budapest Honved 1–2 UjpestNB I
- 15 August 2021Ujpest 1–1 Budapest HonvedNB I
Leading scorers: Budapest Honved and Ujpest
Budapest Honved
No player in NB I's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.
Ujpest
- A. Matko5 goals3 assists
- E. Amenyido3 goals3 assists
- G. Vlijter2 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Budapest Honved carry a model rating of 6.37 against 6.44 for Ujpest. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.85 goals for Budapest Honved and 1.82 for Ujpest. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Budapest Honved rate 0.67 in attack and 1.76 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Ujpest rate 0.73 and 1.66.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Ujpest, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Budapest Honved a 1% chance of the title and Ujpest 18.8%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1344 correct results out of 2888 settled predictions (47%), with 275 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Budapest Honved the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.85 expected goals for Budapest Honved against 1.82 for Ujpest. Budapest Honved's attack/defence rating is 0.67/1.76 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.73/1.66 for Ujpest.