Budapest Honved vs Ujpest NB I prediction & result
Final score: Budapest Honved 1-1 Ujpest.
Before kick-off the model made it 39% Budapest Honved, 24% draw, 37% Ujpest — fair odds of 2.56, 4.17 and 2.70.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Hungarian NB I predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Budapest Honved at 39%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Budapest Honved vs Ujpest
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 31O. HadžikićG
- 33O. SafronovD
- 44Á. BakiD
- 4A. SzabóD
- 11S. HangyaD
- 7A. ZuigeberM
- 99I. PekárM
- 5D. CsontosM
- 40Adam SzamosiM
- 30T. SomogyiF
- 45Alberto MaríF
- 52D. BoldorD
- 15Bonifac CsonkaD
- 1G. DúzsG
- 80R. EddarrajM
- 9Á. GyurcsóF
- 49B. PauljevićD
- 17P. PinteF
- 71K. KantorF
- 3P. GarciaD
- 1P. SzappanosG
- 36Ferenc UjvaryD
- 3HeitorD
- 94P. StronatiD
- 20M. ZekeD
- 88M. LjujićM
- 8N. SzendreiM
- 17A. MatkoM
- 14E. AmenyidoM
- 11K. HorváthM
- 26M. TijaniF
- 27Á. KrajcsovicsF
- 10A. MaierM
- 15M. MátéM
- 5A. FiolaD
- 38K. SarkadiM
- 21T. ScharmerM
- 39G. VlijterF
- 2J. BodnárD
- 23D. BanaiG
Form going into Budapest Honved vs Ujpest
Budapest Honved
All competitions we cover
- L1-3away to Puskas Academy18 September 2026
- L2-3away to Gyori ETO FC6 September 2026
- W1-0Zalaegerszegi TE29 August 2026
- L1-2Vasas14 August 2026
- D2-2away to Paks9 August 2026
Ujpest
All competitions we cover
- W2-1Zalaegerszegi TE20 September 2026
- D2-2away to Ferencvarosi TC6 September 2026
- W3-1Vasas29 August 2026
- L0-2away to Paks21 August 2026
- D1-1MTK Budapest15 August 2026
What these results say
- Budapest Honved scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Budapest Honved failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Budapest Honved conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Ujpest conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Ujpest scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Ujpest.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
NB I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Budapest Honved | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 16 | 19 | -3 | 14 |
| 6 | Ujpest | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 21 | 20 | +1 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Budapest Honved vs Ujpest
- 21 April 2023Budapest Honved 0–1 UjpestNB I
- 29 January 2023Ujpest 2–1 Budapest HonvedNB I
- 1 September 2022Budapest Honved 0–0 UjpestNB I
- 20 March 2022Ujpest 0–2 Budapest HonvedNB I
- 27 November 2021Budapest Honved 1–2 UjpestNB I
Leading scorers: Budapest Honved and Ujpest
Budapest Honved
No player in NB I's leading scorers — 16 league goals as a side.
Ujpest
GoalsAssists
- A. Matko63
- E. Amenyido45
- G. Vlijter32
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Budapest Honved and Ujpest drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Budapest Honved at 39% and given a draw 24%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Gleofilo Vlijter 70' for Ujpest, Patrik Pinte 73' for Budapest Honved. On expected goals it finished 1.34–1.34.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Budapest Honved a 48.9% chance to finish in the bottom three: 42.3% after a win, 50.2% after a draw, 54.1% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 50.2%, 1.3 points higher than before the match.
For Ujpest the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 41.1% going in: 48.3% after a win, 38.0% after a draw, 34.6% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 38.0%, 3.1 points lower than before the match.
Read from our NB I season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Budapest Honved v Ujpest has moved
First published on 27 Sep at 37% / 26% / 37% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 39% / 24% / 37%: the biggest move is Budapest Honved's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Budapest Honved win39%▲ +2
- Draw24%▼ −2
- Ujpest win37%=
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.