Valencia vs Celta Vigo La Liga prediction & result
Final score: Valencia 0-0 Celta Vigo.
Before kick-off the model made it 64% Valencia, 17% draw, 19% Celta Vigo — fair odds of 1.56, 5.88 and 5.26.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Valencia at 64%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Valencia vs Celta Vigo
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1S. DimitrievskiG
- 21J. VazquezD
- 5C. TarregaD
- 18PepeluD
- 12J. De HaasD
- 14J. GayaD
- 39R. SatoM
- 23F. UgrinicM
- 2G. RodriguezM
- 8J. GuerraM
- 7A. DanjumaF
- 13C. RiveroG
- 24P. MaffeoD
- 4M. DiakhabyD
- 41M. NavarroD
- 36I. CordobaD
- 15A. DiengM
- 10A. AlmeidaM
- 38J. DuraM
- 6U. SadiqF
- 13I. RaduG
- 20J. RodriguezD
- 29Y. LagoD
- 3M. AlonsoD
- 5S. CarreiraM
- 8M. RomanM
- 14A. FebasM
- 22J. GalanM
- 39J. El AbdellaouiF
- 9F. JutglaF
- 23H. AlvarezF
- 1A. BayindirG
- 2C. StarfeltD
- 17J. RuedaD
- 15A. NunezD
- 4A. FayeD
- 6I. MoribaM
- 30H. BurcioM
- 16H. GonzalezM
- 19W. SwedbergM
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Valencia | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 20 | -12 | 9 |
| 11 | Celta Vigo | 12 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Valencia vs Celta Vigo
- 5 April 2026Valencia 2–3 Celta VigoLa Liga
- 3 January 2026Celta Vigo 4–1 ValenciaLa Liga
- 2 February 2025Valencia 2–1 Celta VigoLa Liga
- 23 August 2024Celta Vigo 3–1 ValenciaLa Liga
- 26 May 2024Celta Vigo 2–2 ValenciaLa Liga
The result against the call
Valencia and Celta Vigo drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Valencia at 64% and given a draw 17%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 6 matches like this one. On expected goals it finished 0.58–0.66.