Valencia
vs
Celta Vigo
La Liga prediction
The model makes it 61% Valencia, 19% draw, 20% Celta Vigo — fair odds of 1.64, 5.26 and 5.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Valencia 2.54, Celta Vigo 1.44.
Both teams to score: 71%. Over 2.5 goals: 76%, under 2.5: 24%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Head-to-head: Valencia vs Celta Vigo
- 5 April 2026Valencia 2–3 Celta VigoLa Liga
- 3 January 2026Celta Vigo 4–1 ValenciaLa Liga
- 2 February 2025Valencia 2–1 Celta VigoLa Liga
- 23 August 2024Celta Vigo 3–1 ValenciaLa Liga
- 26 May 2024Celta Vigo 2–2 ValenciaLa Liga
- 17 January 2024Valencia 1–3 Celta VigoCopa del Rey
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Valencia carry a model rating of 6.89 against 6.77 for Celta Vigo. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.54 goals for Valencia and 1.44 for Celta Vigo. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Valencia rate 1.06 in attack and 0.98 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Celta Vigo rate 1.05 and 1.27.
That points to 76% for over two and a half goals and 71% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (9%), 3-1 (7%), 1-1 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Valencia the highest probability at 61%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.54 expected goals for Valencia against 1.44 for Celta Vigo. Valencia's attack/defence rating is 1.06/0.98 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.05/1.27 for Celta Vigo.