Maritimo
vs
Academico Viseu
Primeira Liga prediction
The model makes it 77% Maritimo, 15% draw, 8% Academico Viseu — fair odds of 1.30, 6.67 and 12.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (13%).
Expected goals: Maritimo 2.54, Academico Viseu 0.70.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 63%, under 2.5: 37%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Maritimo
- W1-0Casa Pia8 August 2026
Academico Viseu
No earlier matches on record this season.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maritimo | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
Where they stand. Academico Viseu has not started the league season yet. Full tables
Head-to-head: Maritimo vs Academico Viseu
- 1 March 2026Academico Viseu 3–1 MaritimoSegunda Liga
- 3 October 2025Maritimo 2–2 Academico ViseuSegunda Liga
- 9 March 2025Maritimo 1–1 Academico ViseuSegunda Liga
- 13 October 2024Academico Viseu 0–2 MaritimoSegunda Liga
- 19 May 2024Academico Viseu 2–2 MaritimoSegunda Liga
- 14 January 2024Maritimo 1–1 Academico ViseuSegunda Liga
Leading scorers
Maritimo
- Raphael Guzzo1 goals
Academico Viseu
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Maritimo carry a model rating of 7.17 against 6.71 for Academico Viseu. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Maritimo W.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.54 goals for Maritimo and 0.70 for Academico Viseu. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Maritimo rate 1.46 in attack and 0.77 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Academico Viseu rate 0.65 and 0.92.
That points to 63% for over two and a half goals and 47% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-0 (13%), 3-0 (11%), 1-0 (10%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Maritimo the highest probability at 77%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.54 expected goals for Maritimo against 0.7 for Academico Viseu. Maritimo's attack/defence rating is 1.46/0.77 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.65/0.92 for Academico Viseu.