Maritimo vs Academico Viseu Primeira Liga prediction & result
Final score: Maritimo 2-2 Academico Viseu.
Before kick-off the model made it 77% Maritimo, 14% draw, 9% Academico Viseu — fair odds of 1.30, 7.14 and 11.11.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Maritimo at 77%: of 501 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.5% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Maritimo vs Academico Viseu
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 13Alfonso PastorG
- 2Igor JuliãoD
- 4Rafael FernandesD
- 44Romain CorreiaD
- 23Paulo HenriqueD
- 6Rodrigo AndradeM
- 18Vladan DanilovićM
- 11Simo BouzaidiM
- 14Raphael GuzzoM
- 10Martín TejónM
- 17Adrián ButzkeF
- 1Gonçalo TabuaçoG
- 30Francisco VieitesG
- 22Gábor SzalaiD
- 16Francisco SilvaM
- 68Nelio BatistaM
- 21Ibrahim AlaniM
- 66Israel AyumaM
- 35Bryan LimbombeF
- 15Tomás TavaresD
- 98EwertonG
- 75RobinhoD
- 41Anthony CorreiaD
- 2Nikolaos MichelisD
- 5Pedro BarcelosD
- 8Cihan KahramanM
- 6André CeitilM
- 14Soufiane MesseguemM
- 31João GuilhermeF
- 33André ClóvisF
- 47Lorougnon GohiF
- 58Matheus SampaioG
- 1Marcos LavínG
- 57Gu CostaD
- 44Rúben PereiraD
- 7Luís SilvaM
- 29Andro BabićM
- 21Tomás DomingosD
- 22Nils MortimerF
- 10Álvaro ZamoraF
Form going into Maritimo vs Academico Viseu
Maritimo
All competitions we cover
- W2-1away to Famalicao16 August 2026
- W1-0Casa Pia8 August 2026
Academico Viseu
All competitions we cover
- L0-1Santa Clara15 August 2026
- D2-2away to Benfica9 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Maritimo | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 21 | -12 | 8 |
| 6 | Academico Viseu | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 13 | +2 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Maritimo vs Academico Viseu
- 1 March 2026Academico Viseu 3–1 MaritimoSegunda Liga
- 3 October 2025Maritimo 2–2 Academico ViseuSegunda Liga
- 9 March 2025Maritimo 1–1 Academico ViseuSegunda Liga
- 13 October 2024Academico Viseu 0–2 MaritimoSegunda Liga
- 19 May 2024Academico Viseu 2–2 MaritimoSegunda Liga
Leading scorers: Maritimo and Academico Viseu
Maritimo
No player in Primeira Liga's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Academico Viseu
GoalsAssists
- André Clóvis51
- S. Messeguem31
- João Guilherme30
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Maritimo and Academico Viseu drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Maritimo at 77% and given a draw 14%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 7 matches like this one. The goals: Andre Clovis 25' for Academico Viseu, S. Messeguem 45+1' for Academico Viseu, P. Henrique 70' for Maritimo, A. Butzke (penalty) 88' for Maritimo. On expected goals it finished 0.26–1.02.