Atletico Madrid
vs
Villarreal
La Liga prediction
The model makes it 64% Atletico Madrid, 17% draw, 19% Villarreal — fair odds of 1.56, 5.88 and 5.26. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (8%).
Expected goals: Atletico Madrid 2.87, Villarreal 1.57.
Both teams to score: 75%. Over 2.5 goals: 82%, under 2.5: 18%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Head-to-head: Atletico Madrid vs Villarreal
- 24 May 2026Villarreal 5–1 Atletico MadridLa Liga
- 13 September 2025Atletico Madrid 2–0 VillarrealLa Liga
- 25 January 2025Atletico Madrid 1–1 VillarrealLa Liga
- 19 August 2024Villarreal 2–2 Atletico MadridLa Liga
- 1 April 2024Villarreal 1–2 Atletico MadridLa Liga
- 12 November 2023Atletico Madrid 3–1 VillarrealLa Liga
The two sides
Atletico Madrid carry a model rating of 7.11 against 6.94 for Villarreal. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.87 goals for Atletico Madrid and 1.57 for Villarreal. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Atletico Madrid rate 1.55 in attack and 0.96 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Villarreal rate 1.17 and 0.98.
That points to 82% for over two and a half goals and 75% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (8%), 3-1 (7%), 2-2 (6%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Atletico Madrid the highest probability at 64%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.87 expected goals for Atletico Madrid against 1.57 for Villarreal. Atletico Madrid's attack/defence rating is 1.55/0.96 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.17/0.98 for Villarreal.