Atletico Madrid vs Villarreal La Liga prediction & result
Final score: Atletico Madrid 2-2 Villarreal.
Before kick-off the model made it 58% Atletico Madrid, 19% draw, 23% Villarreal — fair odds of 1.72, 5.26 and 4.35.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Atletico Madrid at 58%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Atletico Madrid vs Villarreal
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 13Jan OblakG
- 18Marc PubillD
- 24Robin Le NormandD
- 17Dávid HanckoD
- 22Alejandro GrimaldoD
- 20Giuliano SimeoneM
- 6KokeM
- 23Morten HjulmandM
- 4Rodrigo MendozaM
- 11Ademola LookmanF
- 7Kang-in LeeF
- 10Alex BaenaM
- 1Juan MussoG
- 14Marcos LlorenteM
- 2José María GiménezD
- 30Dani MartinezD
- 27Jorge DomínguezD
- 8Pablo BarriosM
- 5Johnny CardosoM
- 16Arnau OrtizF
- 1Luiz JúniorG
- 15Santiago MouriñoD
- 8Juan FoythD
- 12Renato VeigaD
- 20Carlos RomeroD
- 19Nicolas PépéM
- 14Santi ComesañaM
- 18Pape GueyeM
- 10Alberto MoleiroM
- 22Ayoze PérezF
- 9Georges MikautadzeF
- 17Tajon BuchananF
- 7Gerard MorenoF
- 25Péter GulácsiG
- 6Pau NavarroD
- 3Alexander FreemanD
- 23Sergi CardonaD
- 2Logan CostaD
- 30Cheikh Tidiane ThiamM
- 27Nizar El JmiliF
Form going into Atletico Madrid vs Villarreal
Atletico Madrid
All competitions we cover
- W2-0Malaga19 August 2026
Villarreal
All competitions we cover
- D2-2away to Racing Santander16 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Atletico Madrid | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 23 | 10 | +13 | 28 |
| 8 | Villarreal | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 17 | 15 | +2 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Atletico Madrid vs Villarreal
- 24 May 2026Villarreal 5–1 Atletico MadridLa Liga
- 13 September 2025Atletico Madrid 2–0 VillarrealLa Liga
- 25 January 2025Atletico Madrid 1–1 VillarrealLa Liga
- 19 August 2024Villarreal 2–2 Atletico MadridLa Liga
- 1 April 2024Villarreal 1–2 Atletico MadridLa Liga
Leading scorers: Atletico Madrid and Villarreal
Atletico Madrid
GoalsAssists
- Álex Baena53
- G. Simeone42
Villarreal
No player in La Liga's leading scorers — 17 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Atletico Madrid and Villarreal drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Atletico Madrid at 58% and given a draw 19%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goals: M. Pubill 59' for Atletico Madrid, G. Moreno (penalty) 66' for Villarreal, G. Mikautadze (penalty) 78' for Villarreal, G. Simeone 85' for Atletico Madrid. Sent off: R. Le Normand (Atletico Madrid) 76'. On expected goals it finished 0.65–3.14.