Athletic Club vs Sevilla La Liga prediction & result
Final score: Athletic Club 1-3 Sevilla.
Before kick-off the model made it 44% Athletic Club, 27% draw, 29% Sevilla — fair odds of 2.27, 3.70 and 3.45.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Athletic Club at 44%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Athletic Club vs Sevilla
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Unai SimónG
- 12Jesús AresoD
- 5Yeray ÁlvarezD
- 4Aitor ParedesD
- 17Yuri BerchicheD
- 24Beñat GerenabarrenaM
- 28Peio CanalesM
- 9Iñaki WilliamsM
- 8Oihan SancetM
- 7Álex BerenguerM
- 11Gorka GuruzetaF
- 13Alex PadillaG
- 19Adama BoiroD
- 15Hugo RincónD
- 31Johaneko Louis JeanD
- 14Aymeric LaporteD
- 20Alejandro Rego MoraM
- 10Nico WilliamsF
- 16Iñigo Ruiz de GalarretaM
- 18Mikel JauregizarM
- 1Odysseas VlachodimosG
- 2Juan IglesiasD
- 12Arouna SanganteD
- 5Andres CastrinD
- 17Gabriel SuazoD
- 6Lucien AgouméM
- 18Jon GuridiM
- 30Miguel SierraM
- 10Peque FernándezM
- 19OsoM
- 9Robbie UreF
- 13Fran GonzálezG
- 33Rafa RomeroG
- 34Iker MuñozD
- 3Julio DíazD
- 22José Ángel CarmonaD
- 27Nico GuillénM
- 37Ibra SowF
- 28Manu BuenoM
- 8Giorgi KochorashviliM
Form going into Athletic Club vs Sevilla
Athletic Club
No earlier matches on record this season.
Sevilla
All competitions we cover
- W2-1Rayo Vallecano15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Athletic Club | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 11 | +4 | 16 |
| 6 | Sevilla | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 19 | -2 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Athletic Club vs Sevilla
- 24 January 2026Sevilla 2–1 Athletic ClubLa Liga
- 17 August 2025Athletic Club 3–2 SevillaLa Liga
- 16 March 2025Sevilla 0–1 Athletic ClubLa Liga
- 29 September 2024Athletic Club 1–1 SevillaLa Liga
- 19 May 2024Athletic Club 2–0 SevillaLa Liga
Leading scorers: Athletic Club and Sevilla
Athletic Club
GoalsAssists
- Álex Berenguer44
Sevilla
No player in La Liga's leading scorers — 17 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Sevilla won 3–1 at Athletic Club. The model had leaned towards a win for Athletic Club at 44% and given a win for Sevilla 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Oso 15' for Sevilla, C. Ejuke 50' for Sevilla, I. Romero 57' for Sevilla, A. Paredes 70' for Athletic Club. Sent off: Y. Berchiche (Athletic Club) 11'. On expected goals it finished 0.03–0.00.