Athletic Club
vs
Sevilla
La Liga prediction
The model makes it 47% Athletic Club, 29% draw, 24% Sevilla — fair odds of 2.13, 3.45 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (14%).
Expected goals: Athletic Club 1.34, Sevilla 0.87.
Both teams to score: 44%. Over 2.5 goals: 38%, under 2.5: 62%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Head-to-head: Athletic Club vs Sevilla
- 24 January 2026Sevilla 2–1 Athletic ClubLa Liga
- 17 August 2025Athletic Club 3–2 SevillaLa Liga
- 16 March 2025Sevilla 0–1 Athletic ClubLa Liga
- 29 September 2024Athletic Club 1–1 SevillaLa Liga
- 19 May 2024Athletic Club 2–0 SevillaLa Liga
- 4 January 2024Sevilla 0–2 Athletic ClubLa Liga
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Athletic Club carry a model rating of 6.92 against 6.87 for Sevilla. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.34 goals for Athletic Club and 0.87 for Sevilla. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Athletic Club rate 0.90 in attack and 0.80 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sevilla rate 0.78 and 0.79.
That points to 38% for over two and a half goals and 44% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-0 (14%), 1-1 (13%), 0-0 (12%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Athletic Club the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Athletic Club against 0.87 for Sevilla. Athletic Club's attack/defence rating is 0.9/0.8 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.78/0.79 for Sevilla.