22 August 2026, 17:00 UTC

Estoril vs Rio Ave Primeira Liga prediction & result

Estadio Antonio Coimbra da Mota, Estoril
Full time0 – 2

Final score: Estoril 0-2 Rio Ave.

Before kick-off the model made it 54% Estoril, 23% draw, 23% Rio Ave — fair odds of 1.85, 4.35 and 4.35.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Estoril at 54%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Estoril0%Draw1%Rio Ave99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

15'
⚽J. Blesaassist: Diogo Bezerra
52'
🔁R. Galcikout: A. Ntoi
53'
•Jalen Blesa
Fernando Medrano
68'
🔁T. Britoout: F. Garcia
68'
🔁F. Medranoout: T. Parente
69'
🔁R. Sanchezout: P. Carvalho
69'
72'
⚽Tambleassist: J. Blesa
🔁A. Tsounguiout: J. Arnolin
76'
🔁R. Guitaneout: Peixinho
76'
76'
🔁N. Abbeyout: M. Vrousai
81'
🔁J. Brabecout: Gustavo Mancha
81'
🔁Tambleout: D. Spikic
86'
Andreas Ndoj

Match stats — Estoril vs Rio Ave

55%Possession45%
18Shots3
6On target3
6Corners3
1.16xG0.7

Goals against chances

Estoril0 from 1.16 xGless than the chances were worth
Rio Ave2 from 0.70 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Estoril 4-2-3-1
  • 1J. RoblesG
  • 2R. SanchezD
  • 4FerroD
  • 15I. SierraD
  • 3F. MedranoD
  • 90T. BritoM
  • 5A. TsounguiM
  • 99R. GuitaneM
  • 12J. CarvalhoM
  • 7A. LacximicantM
  • 14Y. BegraouiF
Substitutes
  • 16M. TurkG
  • 23D. DiasG
  • 18G. CostaD
  • 25S. AndreouD
  • 19T. ParenteD
  • 22P. CarvalhoD
  • 42J. ArnolinD
  • 6JandroM
  • 80L. GomesM
Coach: Vasco Matos
Rio Ave 4-2-3-1
  • 99E. van der GouwG
  • 54G. LiavasD
  • 23F. PetrassoD
  • 14J. BrabecD
  • 6N. AbbeyD
  • 44T. NikitscherM
  • 90D. NascimentoM
  • 30R. Galcik
  • 11J. BlesaM
  • 7Diogo Bezerra
  • 9TambleF
Substitutes
  • 22K. ChamorroG
  • 17M. VrousaiF
  • 5A. NtoiD
  • 13J. LombotoD
  • 39Gustavo ManchaD
  • 60CaikeD
  • 79M. PatricioF
  • 70A. WenckM
  • 27T. MedinaM
Coach: Sotiris Sylaidopoulos

Form going into Estoril vs Rio Ave

Estoril

All competitions we cover

  • L0-2away to Nacional16 August 2026
  • D1-1Famalicao7 August 2026

Rio Ave

All competitions we cover

  • L0-2FC Porto15 August 2026
  • L0-1away to GIL Vicente9 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Primeira Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
18Estoril10028519-142
17Rio Ave11218924-157

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Estoril vs Rio Ave

  • 22 March 2026Estoril 1–2 Rio AvePrimeira Liga
  • 1 November 2025Rio Ave 0–4 EstorilPrimeira Liga
  • 22 February 2025Estoril 2–1 Rio AvePrimeira Liga
  • 21 September 2024Rio Ave 2–2 EstorilPrimeira Liga
  • 31 January 2024Rio Ave 1–1 EstorilPrimeira Liga

The full Estoril vs Rio Ave record →

The result against the call

Rio Ave won 2–0 at Estoril. The model had leaned towards a win for Estoril at 54% and given a win for Rio Ave 23%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: J. Blesa 15' for Rio Ave, Tamble 72' for Rio Ave. On expected goals it finished 1.16–0.70.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.