Sport Boys
vs
Alianza Atletico
Primera División prediction & result
Final score: Sport Boys 1-3 Alianza Atletico.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% Sport Boys, 29% draw, 31% Alianza Atletico — fair odds of 2.50, 3.45 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Sport Boys 1.41, Alianza Atletico 1.18.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%, under 2.5: 52%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
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Model insights: Sport Boys vs Alianza Atletico
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sport Boys at 40% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Sport Boys vs Alianza Atletico
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 22D. MeliánG
- 17E. SabaD
- 3C. ZambranoD
- 26H. RiojasD
- 13M. LlontopD
- 24O. MoraM
- 10J. AlarcónM
- 11L. UrrutiM
- 77Y. CeliM
- 99C. CuevaM
- 30P. LizaF
- 14R. DíazF
- 4R. AlfaniD
- 5F. IllanesM
- 29N. LoyolaD
- 61J. NolascoG
- 36Nicolas PazM
- 47M. TraucoD
- 2Luciano Francesco Zambrano AliagaD
- 37Adrián Jesús Santana ValenzuelaM
- 95D. PrietoG
- 16S. FernándezD
- 25W. GuzmánD
- 6J. LujánD
- 24A. GordilloD
- 15H. LupúM
- 23A. MuñozM
- 10Germán DíazM
- 22J. del CastilloM
- 17C. PenillaM
- 27J. IngrattiF
- 29J. MolinaF
- 21E. PerlecheD
- 20Jimmy PérezM
- 40J. QuiñónesD
- 9V. RobaldoF
- 28J. RossiG
- 19J. MendietaD
- 11G. LariosF
- 8F. FloresM
Form going into Sport Boys vs Alianza Atletico
Sport Boys
- D1-1away to FBC Melgar20 September 2026
- W1-0Deportivo Garcilaso13 September 2026
- L1-2away to Sport Huancayo5 September 2026
- W1-0Sporting Cristal30 August 2026
Alianza Atletico
- W2-1Comerciantes Unidos18 September 2026
- L1-3away to Atletico Grau13 September 2026
- W3-2UTC Cajamarca4 September 2026
- W4-1away to UCV Moquegua30 August 2026
What these results say
- Sport Boys scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Sport Boys had two goals or fewer.
- Alianza Atletico scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Alianza Atletico conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Alianza Atletico had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Sport Boys | 28 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 30 | 29 | +1 | 38 |
| 7 | Alianza Atletico | 28 | 12 | 7 | 9 | 43 | 36 | +7 | 43 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Sport Boys vs Alianza Atletico
- 11 October 2026Sport Boys 1–3 Alianza AtleticoPrimera División
- 6 October 2026Alianza Atletico 3–0 Sport BoysCopa De La Liga
- 27 September 2026Sport Boys 3–0 Alianza AtleticoCopa De La Liga
- 19 April 2026Alianza Atletico 0–1 Sport BoysPrimera División
- 16 November 2025Sport Boys 0–1 Alianza AtleticoPrimera División
- 12 July 2025Alianza Atletico 1–0 Sport BoysPrimera División
Leading scorers: Sport Boys and Alianza Atletico
Sport Boys
No player in Primera División's leading scorers — 30 league goals as a side.
Alianza Atletico
GoalsAssists
- C. Penilla84
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.41 goals for Sport Boys and 1.18 for Alianza Atletico; the game produced 1 and 3.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Percy Liza 16' (Sport Boys), Jorge del Castillo 59' (Alianza Atletico), Jorge del Castillo 68' (Alianza Atletico), Guillermo Larios 90' (Alianza Atletico).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sport Boys the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Sport Boys against 1.18 for Alianza Atletico. Sport Boys's attack/defence rating is 0.53/1.4 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.7/1.63 for Alianza Atletico.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.