Silkeborg vs AC Horsens Superliga prediction & result
Final score: Silkeborg 3-3 AC Horsens.
Before kick-off the model made it 37% Silkeborg, 24% draw, 39% AC Horsens — fair odds of 2.70, 4.17 and 2.56.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Danish Superliga predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
AC Horsens at 39%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Silkeborg vs AC Horsens
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1A. AndrésenG
- 6M. de GevigneyD
- 3R. ØstrømD
- 24A. MadsenD
- 7V. WesthM
- 20M. LarsenM
- 33M. FreundlichM
- 19J. GammelbyM
- 21L. RiisgaardM
- 11O. RossM
- 22R. Al HajjF
- 42Kristian Bloch BøgildF
- 14S. BergerM
- 36J. NielsenM
- 27W. KirkM
- 10K. KirkegaardM
- 30T. MikkelsenG
- 4Pedro GanchasD
- 2A. PoulsenD
- 23M. HansenF
- 1M. DelačG
- 26V. PálssonD
- 35M. KupijbidaD
- 28A. SaineD
- 7I. MiličevićD
- 16A. MoroM
- 20K. LusavecM
- 27Y. OuorouM
- 6J. BondeM
- 15A. JustinussenM
- 41Kingsley BimpongF
- 22J. BatigiF
- 40Ismaila CeesayF
- 19Jimi Weikko TauriainenM
- 12Diomande Valassina SoloD
- 30S. DouaD
- 17A. HerdonssonM
- 18J. KörkköF
- 31A. HoffG
- 25Fallou SeneF
Form going into Silkeborg vs AC Horsens
Silkeborg
All competitions we cover
- W4-0away to Lyngby18 September 2026
- D1-1Viborg13 September 2026
- D2-2away to Aarhus5 September 2026
- D1-1FC Midtjylland30 August 2026
- L1-3away to Brondby24 August 2026
AC Horsens
All competitions we cover
- D2-2Aarhus20 September 2026
- L0-2away to FC Copenhagen11 September 2026
- W5-2away to Sonderjyske6 September 2026
- L2-3Viborg28 August 2026
- W2-1Lyngby23 August 2026
What these results say
- Silkeborg scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Silkeborg failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Silkeborg conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- AC Horsens conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- AC Horsens scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for AC Horsens had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Superliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Silkeborg | 14 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 18 | 24 | -6 | 15 |
| 7 | AC Horsens | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 23 | 23 | 0 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Silkeborg vs AC Horsens
- 19 May 2023AC Horsens 0–1 SilkeborgSuperliga
- 11 April 2023Silkeborg 1–2 AC HorsensSuperliga
- 23 October 2022AC Horsens 3–2 SilkeborgSuperliga
- 2 October 2022Silkeborg 2–1 AC HorsensSuperliga
- 23 September 2021AC Horsens 3–2 SilkeborgDBU Pokalen
Leading scorers: Silkeborg and AC Horsens
Silkeborg
GoalsAssists
- O. Ross72
AC Horsens
GoalsAssists
- K. Ehibhatiomhan40
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Silkeborg and AC Horsens drew 3–3. The model had leaned towards a win for AC Horsens at 39% and given a draw 24%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Alagie Saine 8' for AC Horsens, Jakob Bonde Jensen 23' for AC Horsens, Oliver Ross (penalty) 48' for Silkeborg, Oliver Ross 63' for Silkeborg, Oliver Ross 71' for Silkeborg, Alagie Saine 90+5' for AC Horsens. On expected goals it finished 2.22–3.39.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Silkeborg a 24.5% chance to finish in the bottom three: 15.1% after a win, 27.0% after a draw, 31.2% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 27.0%, 2.5 points higher than before the match.
For AC Horsens the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 20.1% going in: 27.0% after a win, 18.0% after a draw, 12.3% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 18.0%, 2.1 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Superliga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Silkeborg v AC Horsens has moved
First published on 27 Sep at 36% / 26% / 38% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 37% / 24% / 39%: the biggest move is the draw, down 2 points.
- Silkeborg win37%▲ +1
- Draw24%▼ −2
- AC Horsens win39%▲ +1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.