Cusco
vs
Alianza Lima
Primera División prediction & result
Final score: Cusco 1-2 Alianza Lima.
Before kick-off the model made it 34% Cusco, 29% draw, 37% Alianza Lima — fair odds of 2.94, 3.45 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Cusco 1.22, Alianza Lima 1.31.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%, under 2.5: 54%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
More Primera División (Peru) predictions
Model insights: Cusco vs Alianza Lima
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Alianza Lima at 37% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 2,861 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Cusco vs Alianza Lima
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 28P. DíazG
- 21J. ZevallosD
- 8A. FuentesD
- 2C. GamarraD
- 3R. LagosD
- 55J. MontañoM
- 26N. SilvaM
- 14C. DiezM
- 10I. ColmanM
- 7J. ManzanedaM
- 9F. CallejoF
- 16O. ValenzuelaM
- 22L. ColittoM
- 6Á. AmpueroD
- 77J. HerreraM
- 24M. RuidíasD
- 99Miguel SilveiraM
- 88D. SotoM
- 11J. TévezF
- 13A. VidalG
- 1A. DuarteG
- 17L. AdvínculaD
- 6R. GarcésD
- 3M. AntoniD
- 13M. HuamánD
- 25G. GentileM
- 4G. ChávezM
- 7F. GaiborM
- 20J. VélezM
- 27K. QuevedoF
- 8E. CastilloF
- 31C. CarbajalD
- 15J. CastilloM
- 2N. DíazD
- 99F. GirottiF
- 14D´Alessandro MontenegroD
- 22C. NeiraM
- 9L. RamosF
- 29J. ArchimbaudM
- 12Á. de la CruzG
Form going into Cusco vs Alianza Lima
Cusco
- W2-1away to FC Cajamarca19 September 2026
- L0-1FBC Melgar12 September 2026
- W2-0UCV Moquegua5 September 2026
- W2-1away to Cienciano31 August 2026
Alianza Lima
- W2-0ADT19 September 2026
- L1-2Universitario13 September 2026
- D1-1away to Juan Pablo II College6 September 2026
- L0-1Deportivo Garcilaso30 August 2026
What these results say
- Cusco won 3 of these 4 matches.
- Cusco scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Cusco conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Alianza Lima failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Alianza Lima scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Alianza Lima conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Cusco | 28 | 14 | 3 | 11 | 41 | 40 | +1 | 45 |
| 1 | Alianza Lima | 28 | 17 | 8 | 3 | 46 | 19 | +27 | 59 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Cusco vs Alianza Lima
- 11 October 2026Cusco 1–2 Alianza LimaPrimera División
- 19 April 2026Alianza Lima 8–0 CuscoPrimera División
- 19 July 2025Cusco 2–0 Alianza LimaPrimera División
- 9 February 2025Alianza Lima 3–0 CuscoPrimera División
- 3 November 2024Alianza Lima 1–2 CuscoPrimera División
- 24 May 2024Cusco 3–0 Alianza LimaPrimera División
Leading scorers: Cusco and Alianza Lima
Cusco
GoalsAssists
- F. Callejo162
Alianza Lima
GoalsAssists
- E. Castillo175
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.22 goals for Cusco and 1.31 for Alianza Lima; the game produced 1 and 2.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Mateo Antoni Pavon 38' (Alianza Lima), Diego Soto 56' (Cusco), Alvaro Ampuero 75' (Alianza Lima).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Alianza Lima the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Cusco against 1.31 for Alianza Lima. Cusco's attack/defence rating is 0.67/1.6 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.68/1.12 for Alianza Lima.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.