Rapid
vs
Arges Pitesti
Liga I prediction
Our model says: Rapid 1–0 Arges Pitesti
The model makes it 49% Rapid, 30% draw, 21% Arges Pitesti — fair odds of 2.04, 3.33 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (15%).
Expected goals: Rapid 1.60, Arges Pitesti 0.70.
Both teams to score: 41%. Over 2.5 goals: 40%, under 2.5: 60%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Rapid vs Arges Pitesti
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 15 | 12 | 4 | |||
| 2 | 13 | 9 | 3 | |||
| 3 | 7 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 2 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Rapid wins, grey are draws, red are Arges Pitesti wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Rapid at 49% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Rapid vs Arges Pitesti
Rapid
- W2-1FC Voluntari12 September 2026
- W1-0away to Oțelul6 September 2026
- D1-1Universitatea Craiova31 August 2026
- W2-0away to Petrolul Ploiesti21 August 2026
- L0-1Dinamo Bucuresti15 August 2026
Arges Pitesti
- D1-1FC Botosani13 September 2026
- L0-1away to FC Voluntari7 September 2026
- L0-1Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe29 August 2026
- L0-1away to Oțelul24 August 2026
- D1-1Farul Constanta14 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Rapid | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 5 | +6 | 18 |
| 10 | Arges Pitesti | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Rapid vs Arges Pitesti
- 15 May 2026Arges Pitesti 2–2 RapidLiga I
- 13 April 2026Rapid 0–0 Arges PitestiLiga I
- 2 December 2025Arges Pitesti 2–1 RapidCupa României
- 8 November 2025Rapid 2–0 Arges PitestiLiga I
- 11 July 2025Arges Pitesti 0–2 RapidLiga I
- 4 December 2022Arges Pitesti 1–1 RapidLiga I
Leading scorers: Rapid and Arges Pitesti
Rapid
- A. Dobre3 goals
Arges Pitesti
- R. Moldoveanu3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Rapid carry a model rating of 6.56 against 6.3 for Arges Pitesti. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.60 goals for Rapid and 0.70 for Arges Pitesti. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Rapid rate 0.64 in attack and 1.16 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Arges Pitesti rate 0.50 and 1.54.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Rapid a 15.3% chance of the title and Arges Pitesti 0.2%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Rapid the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.6 expected goals for Rapid against 0.7 for Arges Pitesti. Rapid's attack/defence rating is 0.64/1.16 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.5/1.54 for Arges Pitesti.