18 September 2026, 15:00 UTC

Lahti vs FF Jaro Finnish Premier League prediction & result

Lahden Stadion, Lahti
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Lahti 1-1 FF Jaro.

Before kick-off the model made it 52% Lahti, 27% draw, 21% FF Jaro — fair odds of 1.92, 3.70 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Lahti at 52% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 1,294 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 57.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Lahti6%Draw92%FF Jaro2%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Martim Ferreiraassist: Otso Koskinen
9'
Nicolas Gianini Dantas
35'
45'
🔁Abdi Sabriyeout: Jonathan Lawson
Romaric Yapi
67'
67'
Gergő Kocsis
71'
Jesper Svenungsen Skau
🔁Otso Koskinenout: Daniel Heikkinen
73'
77'
🔁Ville Vuorinenout: Valde Löfs
🔁Aaron Lindholmout: Amir Belabid
79'
🔁Tofol Montielout: Justus Ojanen
79'
🔁Martim Ferreiraout: Armend Kabashi
80'
85'
🔁Gergő Kocsisout: Kaius Hardén
86'
🔁Jim Myrevikout: Oliver Isak Kass Kawo
🔁Nicolas Gianini Dantasout: Vaino Vehkonen
86'
89'
⚽Valde Löfs
Romaric Yapi
90+1'

Match stats — Lahti vs FF Jaro

64%Possession36%
21Shots12
4On target4
7Corners6

Line-ups

Lahti 4-3-3
  • 31O. MaukonenG
  • 27R. YapiD
  • 5NícolasD
  • 4J. MullerD
  • 25T. InkinenD
  • 8Tòfol MontielM
  • 18Y. CassubieM
  • 10O. KoskinenM
  • 77M. SarrF
  • 9A. LindholmF
  • 11Martim FerreiraF
Substitutes
  • 17A. BelabidF
  • 12A. HakalaG
  • 7D. HeikkinenM
  • 28A. KabashiM
  • 41A. PaalanenF
  • 21M. VainionpääD
  • 6V. VehkonenD
  • 20J. OjanenF
Coach: Gonçalo Pereira
FF Jaro 5-4-1
  • 1S. VitsG
  • 5A. BjonbäckD
  • 21J. MyrevikD
  • 6J. BrunellD
  • 4M. OgungbaroD
  • 19F. Østigård NessD
  • 26M. PedersenM
  • 25G. KocsisM
  • 7J. SkauM
  • 77A. SabriyeM
  • 91V. VuorinenF
Substitutes
  • 16A. VidjeskogM
  • 20T. SoderstromD
  • 12Joas SnellmanG
  • 24V. LofsM
  • 2F. KassD
  • 22K. HardénM
  • 8Oliver Kass KawoM
  • 18E. HolmängF
  • 23Jonathan LawsonF
Coach: Jens Karlsson

Form going into Lahti vs FF Jaro

Lahti

All competitions we cover

  • L1-3away to Ilves12 September 2026
  • W2-1Mariehamn8 September 2026
  • W1-0away to VPS31 August 2026
  • W2-1away to SJK21 August 2026
  • L1-2KuPS16 August 2026

FF Jaro

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1SJK12 September 2026
  • L0-2away to Ilves8 September 2026
  • L0-2away to Mariehamn31 August 2026
  • L0-1AC Oulu22 August 2026
  • L0-3away to HJK Helsinki16 August 2026

What these results say

  • Lahti scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Lahti conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Lahti had three goals or more.
  • FF Jaro did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • FF Jaro conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • FF Jaro failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Lahti vs FF Jaro

  • 1 August 2026Lahti 2–0 FF JaroFinnish Premier League
  • 4 April 2026FF Jaro 0–1 LahtiFinnish Premier League
  • 27 October 2024Lahti 1–0 FF JaroFinnish Premier League
  • 23 October 2024FF Jaro 2–0 LahtiFinnish Premier League
  • 18 October 2015FF Jaro 1–1 LahtiFinnish Premier League

Leading scorers: Lahti and FF Jaro

Lahti

GoalsAssists

  • Martim Ferreira51
  • O. Koskinen32
  • A. Lindholm30

FF Jaro

No leading scorers listed yet.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Lahti and FF Jaro drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Lahti at 52% and given a draw 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Martim Ferreira 9' for Lahti, Valde Löfs 89' for FF Jaro. Sent off: Romaric Yapi (Lahti) 90+1'.

How the call on Lahti v FF Jaro has moved

First published on 4 Sep at 50% / 29% / 21% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 52% / 27% / 21%: the biggest move is Lahti's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Lahti win52%▲ +2
  2. Draw27%▼ −2
  3. FF Jaro win21%=

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.