Lahti
vs
FF Jaro
Veikkausliiga prediction
Our model says: Lahti 2–0 FF Jaro
The model makes it 52% Lahti, 27% draw, 21% FF Jaro — fair odds of 1.92, 3.70 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (11%).
Expected goals: Lahti 1.96, FF Jaro 0.86.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Lahti vs FF Jaro
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 11 | 11 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 7 | 6 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Lahti wins, grey are draws, red are FF Jaro wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Lahti at 52% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 630 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Lahti vs FF Jaro
Lahti
- L1-3away to Ilves12 September 2026
- W2-1Mariehamn8 September 2026
- W1-0away to VPS31 August 2026
- W2-1away to SJK21 August 2026
- L1-2KuPS16 August 2026
FF Jaro
- D1-1SJK12 September 2026
- L0-2away to Ilves8 September 2026
- L0-2away to Mariehamn31 August 2026
- L0-1AC Oulu22 August 2026
- L0-3away to HJK Helsinki16 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Veikkausliiga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Lahti | 22 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 26 | 19 | +7 | 32 |
| 11 | FF Jaro | 22 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 18 | 44 | -26 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Lahti vs FF Jaro
- 1 August 2026Lahti 2–0 FF JaroVeikkausliiga
- 4 April 2026FF Jaro 0–1 LahtiVeikkausliiga
- 27 October 2024Lahti 1–0 FF JaroVeikkausliiga
- 23 October 2024FF Jaro 2–0 LahtiVeikkausliiga
- 18 October 2015FF Jaro 1–1 LahtiVeikkausliiga
- 2 August 2015Lahti 1–1 FF JaroVeikkausliiga
Leading scorers: Lahti and FF Jaro
Lahti
- Martim Ferreira3 goals1 assists
FF Jaro
- H. Sjögrell5 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Lahti carry a model rating of 6.15 against 5.89 for FF Jaro. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.96 goals for Lahti and 0.86 for FF Jaro. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Lahti rate 0.49 in attack and 1.98 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FF Jaro rate 0.36 and 2.46.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Lahti the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.96 expected goals for Lahti against 0.86 for FF Jaro. Lahti's attack/defence rating is 0.49/1.98 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.36/2.46 for FF Jaro.