Union Santa Fe
vs
Estudiantes La Plata
Liga Profesional Argentina prediction
Our model says: Union Santa Fe 0–1 Estudiantes La Plata
The model makes it 35% Union Santa Fe, 29% draw, 36% Estudiantes La Plata — fair odds of 2.86, 3.45 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Union Santa Fe 1.24, Estudiantes La Plata 1.27.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%, under 2.5: 54%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Union Santa Fe and Estudiantes La Plata are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
The full preview, with the complete head-to-head record →
Key facts
- Union Santa Fe are 11th on 13 points from 12 games; Estudiantes La Plata are 9th on 14 points from 12 games — Liga Profesional Argentina, Clausura - Group A.
- Union Santa Fe are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Defensa Y Justicia.
- Estudiantes La Plata have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-2 draw away to Central Cordoba de Santiago.
- Last 6 meetings: Estudiantes La Plata 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 11 April 2026, ended Estudiantes La Plata 2–1 Union Santa Fe.
More Liga Profesional Argentina predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Union Santa Fe vs Estudiantes La Plata
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Estudiantes La Plata at 36% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 2,861 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Union Santa Fe vs Estudiantes La Plata
Union Santa Fe
- L0-2Defensa Y Justicia10 October 2026
- L0-3away to Boca Juniors3 October 2026
- L1-2Independiente19 September 2026
- L1-2away to Talleres Cordoba12 September 2026
- W3-2Instituto Cordoba8 September 2026
Estudiantes La Plata
- D2-2away to Central Cordoba de Santiago10 October 2026
- W3-0Gimnasia Mendoza5 October 2026
- L1-2away to Lanus22 September 2026
- W2-1Platense12 September 2026
- L0-1away to Velez Sarsfield6 September 2026
What these results say
- Union Santa Fe conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Union Santa Fe failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Union Santa Fe had three goals or more.
- Estudiantes La Plata scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Estudiantes La Plata conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Estudiantes La Plata had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Union Santa Fe | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 17 | 21 | -4 | 13 |
| 9 | Estudiantes La Plata | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 15 | 13 | +2 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Union Santa Fe
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 22% today
Estudiantes La Plata
Chance to finish in the bottom three
From our Liga Profesional Argentina season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Union Santa Fe vs Estudiantes La Plata
- 11 April 2026Estudiantes La Plata 2–1 Union Santa FeLiga Profesional Argentina
- 15 July 2025Union Santa Fe 1–0 Estudiantes La PlataLiga Profesional Argentina
- 25 January 2025Estudiantes La Plata 3–1 Union Santa FeLiga Profesional Argentina
- 21 July 2024Estudiantes La Plata 0–0 Union Santa FeLiga Profesional Argentina
- 2 February 2024Union Santa Fe 0–1 Estudiantes La PlataCopa de la Liga Profesional
- 26 August 2023Estudiantes La Plata 1–3 Union Santa FeCopa de la Liga Profesional
Leading scorers: Union Santa Fe and Estudiantes La Plata
Union Santa Fe
GoalsAssists
- C. Tarragona141
Estudiantes La Plata
No player in Liga Profesional Argentina's leading scorers — 15 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Union Santa Fe carry a model rating of 6.6 against 6.74 for Estudiantes La Plata. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.24 goals for Union Santa Fe and 1.27 for Estudiantes La Plata. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Union Santa Fe rate 0.94 in attack and 1.62 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Estudiantes La Plata rate 0.85 and 1.07.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Estudiantes La Plata the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Union Santa Fe against 1.27 for Estudiantes La Plata. Union Santa Fe's attack/defence rating is 0.94/1.62 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.85/1.07 for Estudiantes La Plata.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Union Santa Fe at home · Estudiantes La Plata away
League matches only, Liga Profesional Argentina, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga Profesional Argentina matches this season: Union Santa Fe 30, Estudiantes La Plata 28.
Union Santa Fe score most often in the 61–75 minute window (10 goals); Estudiantes La Plata have let in 2 there.
Estudiantes La Plata score most often in the 76–90 minute window (11 goals); Union Santa Fe have let in 11 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Union Santa Fe
- at Newell's Old Boys1 Nov · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 28%
- vs Velez Sarsfield8 Nov · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 37%
Estudiantes La Plata
- vs Instituto Cordoba1 Nov · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 41%
- at Talleres Cordoba8 Nov · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 36%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.