Central Cordoba de Santiago
vs
Velez Sarsfield
Liga Profesional Argentina prediction
Our model says: Central Cordoba de Santiago 0–1 Velez Sarsfield
The model makes it 32% Central Cordoba de Santiago, 30% draw, 38% Velez Sarsfield — fair odds of 3.13, 3.33 and 2.63. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Central Cordoba de Santiago 1.04, Velez Sarsfield 1.19.
Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 39%, under 2.5: 61%.
Model confidence: Low.
Edge to Velez Sarsfield: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Match centre: line-ups, live score and match stats →
Key facts
- Central Cordoba de Santiago are 14th on 10 points from 12 games; Velez Sarsfield are 4th on 21 points from 12 games — Liga Profesional Argentina, Clausura - Group A.
- Central Cordoba de Santiago have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Estudiantes La Plata.
- Velez Sarsfield have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Lanus.
- Last 6 meetings: Velez Sarsfield 5 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 14 April 2026, ended Velez Sarsfield 1–0 Central Cordoba de Santiago.
More Liga Profesional Argentina predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Central Cordoba de Santiago vs Velez Sarsfield
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Velez Sarsfield at 38% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 2,861 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Central Cordoba de Santiago vs Velez Sarsfield
Central Cordoba de Santiago
- D2-2Estudiantes La Plata10 October 2026
- D1-1away to Deportivo Riestra5 October 2026
- D2-2Defensa Y Justicia18 September 2026
- L1-3away to Boca Juniors12 September 2026
- L0-1Independiente6 September 2026
Velez Sarsfield
- L0-2away to Lanus12 October 2026
- D2-2Platense5 October 2026
- W3-2Tigre21 September 2026
- D1-1away to Newell's Old Boys11 September 2026
- W1-0Estudiantes La Plata6 September 2026
What these results say
- Central Cordoba de Santiago did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Central Cordoba de Santiago conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Central Cordoba de Santiago scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Velez Sarsfield scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Velez Sarsfield conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Central Cordoba de Santiago | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 16 | -6 | 10 |
| 4 | Velez Sarsfield | 12 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 17 | 13 | +4 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Central Cordoba de Santiago
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 71% today
Velez Sarsfield
Chance to finish in the top four · 55% today
From our Liga Profesional Argentina season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Central Cordoba de Santiago vs Velez Sarsfield
Central Cordoba de Santiago and Velez Sarsfield have met 6 times in the records we hold, Velez Sarsfield has won 5 of them to Central Cordoba de Santiago's 1.
The record
Velez Sarsfield won the last one 1–0 on 14 Apr 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Central Cordoba de Santiago | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 12 |
| Velez Sarsfield | 5 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 2 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 14 goals, an average of 2.33 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 14 Apr 2026
Liga Profesional ArgentinaVelez Sarsfield 1–0 Central Cordoba de Santiago - 6 Sep 2025
Super CopaVelez Sarsfield 2–0 Central Cordoba de Santiago - 12 Dec 2024
Copa ArgentinaVelez Sarsfield 0–1 Central Cordoba de Santiago - 29 Jul 2024
Liga Profesional ArgentinaCentral Cordoba de Santiago 0–2 Velez Sarsfield - 22 Mar 2023
Liga Profesional ArgentinaVelez Sarsfield 4–0 Central Cordoba de Santiago - 25 Oct 2022
Liga Profesional ArgentinaVelez Sarsfield 3–1 Central Cordoba de Santiago
How the model rates them now
Attack and defence are multipliers on an average side: above 1.00 in attack means the club scores more than the average team in its competition, and below 1.00 in defence means it concedes fewer. The methodology sets out how they are derived, including where the model is known to be wrong.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Central Cordoba de Santiago | 0.70 | 1.45 |
| Velez Sarsfield | 0.89 | 1.21 |
Leading scorers: Central Cordoba de Santiago and Velez Sarsfield
Central Cordoba de Santiago
GoalsAssists
- M. Santos92
Velez Sarsfield
GoalsAssists
- R. Martínez101
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Central Cordoba de Santiago carry a model rating of 6.49 against 6.7 for Velez Sarsfield. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.04 goals for Central Cordoba de Santiago and 1.19 for Velez Sarsfield. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Central Cordoba de Santiago rate 0.70 in attack and 1.45 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Velez Sarsfield rate 0.89 and 1.21.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Central Cordoba de Santiago a 0% chance of the title and Velez Sarsfield 4.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,771 correct results out of 3,709 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Velez Sarsfield the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Central Cordoba de Santiago against 1.19 for Velez Sarsfield. Central Cordoba de Santiago's attack/defence rating is 0.7/1.45 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.89/1.21 for Velez Sarsfield.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Central Cordoba de Santiago at home · Velez Sarsfield away
League matches only, Liga Profesional Argentina, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga Profesional Argentina matches this season: Central Cordoba de Santiago 27, Velez Sarsfield 28.
Velez Sarsfield score most often in the 0–15 minute window (10 goals); Central Cordoba de Santiago have let in 8 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Central Cordoba de Santiago
- at Platense2 Nov · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 28%
- vs Lanus8 Nov · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 28%
Velez Sarsfield
- vs San Lorenzo31 Oct · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 48%
- at Union Santa Fe8 Nov · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 35%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.