Union Santa Fe vs Defensa Y Justicia Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result
Final score: Union Santa Fe 0-2 Defensa Y Justicia.
Before kick-off the model made it 43% Union Santa Fe, 26% draw, 31% Defensa Y Justicia — fair odds of 2.33, 3.85 and 3.23.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Liga Profesional Argentina predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Union Santa Fe at 43%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Union Santa Fe vs Defensa Y Justicia
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 21M. MansillaG
- 27T. RubioD
- 4M. RochaD
- 26J. LudueñaD
- 18L. AyalaD
- 11M. Luna DialeM
- 8E. GiacconeM
- 17J. MosqueiraM
- 10V. MalcorraM
- 25C. TarragonaF
- 43E. RamírezF
- 36M. AimarD
- 31M. AguirreF
- 38V. J. CerrudoF
- 22B. CuelloM
- 19M. EstigarribiaF
- 33I. IslaD
- 40L. MeuliG
- 20J. PalaciosM
- 34Mateo PeresuttiM
- 1M. BorgognoG
- 28V. LozaD
- 29D. FernándezD
- 21D. MartínezD
- 30D. DomínguezD
- 15S. SosaM
- 8C. PérezM
- 26J. LuccoM
- 19D. BarbonaM
- 24J. GutiérrezM
- 9L. FernándezF
- 40Maximo RodriguezM
- 7T. PérezF
- 16A. PortilloM
- 22M. PorcelM
- 11Tiziano PerrotaF
- 20N. PalavecinoM
- 5J. LópezM
- 17A. HauschF
- 6E. BurdinD
Form going into Union Santa Fe vs Defensa Y Justicia
Union Santa Fe
All competitions we cover
- L0-3away to Boca Juniors3 October 2026
- L1-2Independiente19 September 2026
- L1-2away to Talleres Cordoba12 September 2026
- W3-2Instituto Cordoba8 September 2026
- W4-1Sarmiento Junin28 August 2026
Defensa Y Justicia
All competitions we cover
- W3-0San Lorenzo3 October 2026
- D2-2away to Central Cordoba de Santiago18 September 2026
- W2-0Gimnasia Mendoza11 September 2026
- L0-1away to Lanus6 September 2026
- W1-0Platense31 August 2026
What these results say
- Union Santa Fe conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Union Santa Fe had three goals or more.
- Union Santa Fe scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Defensa Y Justicia scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Union Santa Fe | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 24 | 24 | 0 | 21 |
| 4 | Defensa Y Justicia | 16 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 21 | 15 | +6 | 28 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Union Santa Fe vs Defensa Y Justicia
- 21 March 2026Defensa Y Justicia 2–0 Union Santa FeLiga Profesional Argentina
- 21 October 2025Union Santa Fe 3–0 Defensa Y JusticiaLiga Profesional Argentina
- 14 April 2025Defensa Y Justicia 0–0 Union Santa FeLiga Profesional Argentina
- 15 December 2024Defensa Y Justicia 0–0 Union Santa FeLiga Profesional Argentina
- 10 March 2024Defensa Y Justicia 2–1 Union Santa FeCopa de la Liga Profesional
Leading scorers: Union Santa Fe and Defensa Y Justicia
Union Santa Fe
GoalsAssists
- C. Tarragona172
Defensa Y Justicia
No player in Liga Profesional Argentina's leading scorers — 21 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Defensa Y Justicia won 2–0 at Union Santa Fe. The model had leaned towards a win for Union Santa Fe at 43% and given a win for Defensa Y Justicia 31%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Juan Manuel Gutiérrez 43' for Defensa Y Justicia, César Pérez 45' for Defensa Y Justicia. Sent off: Santiago Sosa (Defensa Y Justicia) 76'. On expected goals it finished 2.38–2.09.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Union Santa Fe a 10.8% chance to finish in the bottom three: 2.4% after a win, 11.9% after a draw, 20.8% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 20.8%, 10 points higher than before the match.
For Defensa Y Justicia the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 58.4% going in: 80.3% after a win, 57.4% after a draw, 44.7% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 80.3%, 21.9 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Liga Profesional Argentina season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Union Santa Fe v Defensa Y Justicia has moved
First published on 27 Sep at 44% / 27% / 29% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 43% / 26% / 31%: the biggest move is Defensa Y Justicia's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Union Santa Fe win43%▼ −1
- Draw26%▼ −1
- Defensa Y Justicia win31%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.