Union Santa Fe
vs
Defensa Y Justicia
Liga Profesional Argentina prediction
Our model says: Union Santa Fe 2–1 Defensa Y Justicia
The model makes it 44% Union Santa Fe, 27% draw, 29% Defensa Y Justicia — fair odds of 2.27, 3.70 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Union Santa Fe 1.84, Defensa Y Justicia 1.25.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Union Santa Fe vs Defensa Y Justicia
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Union Santa Fe at 44% here. Across 2888 settled matches, 1330 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Union Santa Fe vs Defensa Y Justicia
Union Santa Fe
- L1-2Independiente19 September 2026
- L1-2away to Talleres Cordoba12 September 2026
- W3-2Instituto Cordoba8 September 2026
- W4-1Sarmiento Junin28 August 2026
- W3-1away to Aldosivi21 August 2026
Defensa Y Justicia
- D2-2away to Central Cordoba de Santiago18 September 2026
- W2-0Gimnasia Mendoza11 September 2026
- L0-1away to Lanus6 September 2026
- W1-0Platense31 August 2026
- W2-1away to Belgrano Cordoba23 August 2026
What these results say
- Union Santa Fe scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Union Santa Fe conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Union Santa Fe had three goals or more.
- Defensa Y Justicia scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Union Santa Fe | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 17 | 16 | +1 | 13 |
| 3 | Defensa Y Justicia | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 11 | +2 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Union Santa Fe vs Defensa Y Justicia
- 21 March 2026Defensa Y Justicia 2–0 Union Santa FeLiga Profesional Argentina
- 21 October 2025Union Santa Fe 3–0 Defensa Y JusticiaLiga Profesional Argentina
- 14 April 2025Defensa Y Justicia 0–0 Union Santa FeLiga Profesional Argentina
- 15 December 2024Defensa Y Justicia 0–0 Union Santa FeLiga Profesional Argentina
- 10 March 2024Defensa Y Justicia 2–1 Union Santa FeCopa de la Liga Profesional
- 24 October 2023Union Santa Fe 0–0 Defensa Y JusticiaCopa de la Liga Profesional
Leading scorers: Union Santa Fe and Defensa Y Justicia
Union Santa Fe
- C. Tarragona14 goals1 assists
Defensa Y Justicia
No player in Liga Profesional Argentina's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Union Santa Fe carry a model rating of 6.67 against 6.6 for Defensa Y Justicia. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.84 goals for Union Santa Fe and 1.25 for Defensa Y Justicia. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Union Santa Fe rate 1.04 in attack and 1.57 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Defensa Y Justicia rate 0.87 and 1.44.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Defensa Y Justicia, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Union Santa Fe a 0.3% chance of the title and Defensa Y Justicia 5.6%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1344 correct results out of 2888 settled predictions (47%), with 275 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Union Santa Fe the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.84 expected goals for Union Santa Fe against 1.25 for Defensa Y Justicia. Union Santa Fe's attack/defence rating is 1.04/1.57 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.87/1.44 for Defensa Y Justicia.