Tigre
vs
Banfield
Liga Profesional Argentina prediction
Our model says: Tigre 1–0 Banfield
The model makes it 43% Tigre, 31% draw, 26% Banfield — fair odds of 2.33, 3.23 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (14%).
Expected goals: Tigre 1.41, Banfield 0.84.
Both teams to score: 44%. Over 2.5 goals: 39%, under 2.5: 61%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Tigre vs Banfield
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Tigre at 43% here. Across 2888 settled matches, 1330 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Tigre vs Banfield
Tigre
- L1-2away to Atletico Torque20 August 2026
- L0-1Atletico Torque12 August 2026
- L1-2Club Nacional28 July 2026
- W3-0away to Club Nacional21 July 2026
- W2-0Alianza Atletico29 May 2026
Banfield
- D2-2away to Gimnasia La Plata19 September 2026
- D1-1Barracas Central14 September 2026
- L1-3away to Aldosivi5 September 2026
- L2-3River Plate30 August 2026
- L1-2away to Newell's Old Boys23 August 2026
What these results say
- Tigre scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Banfield did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Banfield scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Banfield conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Head-to-head: Tigre vs Banfield
- 21 March 2026Banfield 1–0 TigreLiga Profesional Argentina
- 29 August 2025Banfield 1–0 TigreLiga Profesional Argentina
- 26 June 2025Tigre 2–0 BanfieldCopa Argentina
- 25 February 2025Tigre 1–0 BanfieldLiga Profesional Argentina
- 18 November 2024Banfield 0–1 TigreLiga Profesional Argentina
- 5 July 2023Tigre 1–2 BanfieldLiga Profesional Argentina
Leading scorers: Tigre and Banfield
Tigre
- I. Russo8 goals3 assists
- M. Méndez7 goals3 assists
- D. Romero7 goals2 assists
Banfield
No leading scorers listed yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Tigre carry a model rating of 6.64 against 6.53 for Banfield. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.41 goals for Tigre and 0.84 for Banfield. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Tigre rate 0.73 in attack and 1.13 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Banfield rate 0.81 and 1.57.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1344 correct results out of 2888 settled predictions (47%), with 275 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Tigre the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Tigre against 0.84 for Banfield. Tigre's attack/defence rating is 0.73/1.13 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.81/1.57 for Banfield.