Tigre vs Banfield Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result
Final score: Tigre 1-2 Banfield.
Before kick-off the model made it 46% Tigre, 30% draw, 24% Banfield — fair odds of 2.17, 3.33 and 4.17.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Liga Profesional Argentina predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Tigre at 46%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Tigre vs Banfield
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 12F. ZenobioG
- 4V. MorenoD
- 2J. LasoD
- 20A. BarrionuevoD
- 24F. ÁlvarezD
- 10J. SaraleguiM
- 27S. GonzálezM
- 5B. LeyesM
- 22S. LópezM
- 30J. DóminaF
- 29I. RussoF
- 8M. GarayM
- 18M. FernándezF
- 47A. LezcanoM
- 40L. MinnitiD
- 26L. MoralesG
- 19A. OviedoF
- 50I. PeluffoF
- 23G. RequenaD
- 11T. SerragoM
- 50D. RodríguezG
- 4J. AlfaroD
- 2S. DanieleD
- 6N. MerianoD
- 27I. AbrahamD
- 5Santiago EsquivelM
- 20T. AdoryánM
- 18Federico MedinaM
- 7Lisandro PiñeroM
- 40D. ZalazarM
- 9A. BalboaF
- 30F. AnselmoF
- 19L. CanoD
- 28M. HernándezF
- 24S. LópezM
- 37R. MalancaD
- 13Brandon OviedoD
- 35I. PaisM
- 3N. PazD
- 77T. RodríguezF
Form going into Tigre vs Banfield
Tigre
All competitions we cover
- L1-2away to Argentinos Juniors4 October 2026
- L2-3away to Velez Sarsfield21 September 2026
- L0-1Rosario Central13 September 2026
- L1-2away to Gimnasia La Plata5 September 2026
- D0-0Barracas Central1 September 2026
Banfield
All competitions we cover
- D1-1Rosario Central6 October 2026
- D2-2away to Gimnasia La Plata19 September 2026
- D1-1Barracas Central14 September 2026
- L1-3away to Aldosivi5 September 2026
- L2-3River Plate30 August 2026
What these results say
- Tigre did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Tigre conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Banfield did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Banfield scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Banfield conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Tigre | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 16 | 16 | 0 | 19 |
| 12 | Banfield | 16 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 18 | 25 | -7 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Tigre vs Banfield
- 21 March 2026Banfield 1–0 TigreLiga Profesional Argentina
- 29 August 2025Banfield 1–0 TigreLiga Profesional Argentina
- 26 June 2025Tigre 2–0 BanfieldCopa Argentina
- 25 February 2025Tigre 1–0 BanfieldLiga Profesional Argentina
- 18 November 2024Banfield 0–1 TigreLiga Profesional Argentina
Leading scorers: Tigre and Banfield
Tigre
GoalsAssists
- I. Russo83
- M. Méndez73
- D. Romero72
Banfield
No player in Liga Profesional Argentina's leading scorers — 18 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Banfield won 2–1 at Tigre. The model had leaned towards a win for Tigre at 46% and given a win for Banfield 24%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Adrián Balboa 6' for Banfield, Jerónimo Domina 10' for Tigre, Tomas Adoryan 36' for Banfield. On expected goals it finished 2.46–0.67.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Tigre a 12.5% chance to finish in the bottom three: 3.0% after a win, 13.5% after a draw, 31.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 31.1%, 18.6 points higher than before the match.
For Banfield the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 59.8% going in: 31.2% after a win, 58.0% after a draw, 73.3% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 31.2%, 28.6 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Liga Profesional Argentina season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Tigre v Banfield has moved
First published on 27 Sep at 43% / 31% / 26% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 46% / 30% / 24%: the biggest move is Tigre's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- Tigre win46%▲ +3
- Draw30%▼ −1
- Banfield win24%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.