Instituto Cordoba
vs
Boca Juniors
Liga Profesional Argentina prediction
Our model says: Instituto Cordoba 1–0 Boca Juniors
The model makes it 34% Instituto Cordoba, 32% draw, 34% Boca Juniors — fair odds of 2.94, 3.13 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Instituto Cordoba 1.10, Boca Juniors 1.10.
Both teams to score: 45%. Over 2.5 goals: 38%, under 2.5: 62%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Instituto Cordoba and Boca Juniors are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Instituto Cordoba vs Boca Juniors
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Instituto Cordoba at 34% here. Across 2888 settled matches, 2241 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Instituto Cordoba vs Boca Juniors
Instituto Cordoba
- W3-1Talleres Cordoba20 September 2026
- W2-1Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto15 September 2026
- L2-3away to Union Santa Fe8 September 2026
- W1-0San Lorenzo1 September 2026
- D0-0away to Atletico Tucuman22 August 2026
Boca Juniors
- W2-0away to San Lorenzo20 September 2026
- W3-1Central Cordoba de Santiago12 September 2026
- D2-2away to Gimnasia Mendoza5 September 2026
- W1-0Lanus29 August 2026
- D1-1away to Racing Club24 August 2026
What these results say
- Instituto Cordoba scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Boca Juniors went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Boca Juniors scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Instituto Cordoba | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 7 | +6 | 22 |
| 5 | Boca Juniors | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 14 | 11 | +3 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Instituto Cordoba vs Boca Juniors
- 22 March 2026Boca Juniors 2–0 Instituto CordobaLiga Profesional Argentina
- 28 July 2024Instituto Cordoba 0–0 Boca JuniorsLiga Profesional Argentina
- 19 March 2023Boca Juniors 2–3 Instituto CordobaLiga Profesional Argentina
Leading scorers: Instituto Cordoba and Boca Juniors
Instituto Cordoba
No player in Liga Profesional Argentina's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.
Boca Juniors
- M. Merentiel7 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Instituto Cordoba carry a model rating of 6.69 against 6.84 for Boca Juniors. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.10 goals for Instituto Cordoba and 1.10 for Boca Juniors. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Instituto Cordoba rate 0.84 in attack and 1.15 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Boca Juniors rate 1.04 and 1.07.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Instituto Cordoba a 38.8% chance of the title and Boca Juniors 9.5%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1344 correct results out of 2888 settled predictions (47%), with 275 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Instituto Cordoba the highest probability at 34%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.1 expected goals for Instituto Cordoba against 1.1 for Boca Juniors. Instituto Cordoba's attack/defence rating is 0.84/1.15 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.04/1.07 for Boca Juniors.