Instituto Cordoba vs Boca Juniors Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result
Final score: Instituto Cordoba 2-2 Boca Juniors.
Before kick-off the model made it 35% Instituto Cordoba, 31% draw, 34% Boca Juniors — fair odds of 2.86, 3.23 and 2.94.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Liga Profesional Argentina predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Instituto Cordoba at 35%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Instituto Cordoba vs Boca Juniors
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 29M. LedesmaG
- 30J. GalvánD
- 26L. MosevichD
- 6F. AlarcónD
- 44G. CeratoM
- 55G. AbregúM
- 15M. GallardoM
- 3D. SosaM
- 21J. LázaroM
- 10A. LunaM
- 17M. TisseraF
- 8J. AcevedoM
- 32A. BravoD
- 20J. CórdobaM
- 2H. De La FuenteD
- 11M. FonsecaF
- 7N. GuerraF
- 22A. MassaccesiD
- 23J. MeliD
- 13I. MéndezM
- 1Á. MonteroG
- 27M. BraidaD
- 2L. Di LolloD
- 26Marco PellegrinoD
- 3L. BlancoD
- 15W. AlarcónM
- 18M. DelgadoM
- 19L. FloresM
- 7C. PalaciosM
- 22S. VillaM
- 13E. ValenciaF
- 6R. BattagliaM
- 25S. AscacíbarM
- 12L. BreyG
- 32A. CostaD
- 4N. FigalD
- 9M. GiménezF
- 24D. GorositoD
- 42F. HerreraD
- 16M. MerentielF
Form going into Instituto Cordoba vs Boca Juniors
Instituto Cordoba
All competitions we cover
- W4-1away to Independiente2 October 2026
- W3-1Talleres Cordoba20 September 2026
- W2-1Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto15 September 2026
- L2-3away to Union Santa Fe8 September 2026
- W1-0San Lorenzo1 September 2026
Boca Juniors
All competitions we cover
- W3-0Union Santa Fe3 October 2026
- W2-0away to San Lorenzo20 September 2026
- W3-1Central Cordoba de Santiago12 September 2026
- D2-2away to Gimnasia Mendoza5 September 2026
- W1-0Lanus29 August 2026
What these results say
- Instituto Cordoba scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Instituto Cordoba won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Instituto Cordoba conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Boca Juniors went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Boca Juniors scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Boca Juniors won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Instituto Cordoba | 16 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 26 | 15 | +11 | 34 |
| 2 | Boca Juniors | 16 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 24 | 14 | +10 | 33 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Instituto Cordoba vs Boca Juniors
- 22 March 2026Boca Juniors 2–0 Instituto CordobaLiga Profesional Argentina
- 28 July 2024Instituto Cordoba 0–0 Boca JuniorsLiga Profesional Argentina
- 19 March 2023Boca Juniors 2–3 Instituto CordobaLiga Profesional Argentina
Leading scorers: Instituto Cordoba and Boca Juniors
Instituto Cordoba
No player in Liga Profesional Argentina's leading scorers — 26 league goals as a side.
Boca Juniors
GoalsAssists
- M. Merentiel92
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Instituto Cordoba and Boca Juniors drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Instituto Cordoba at 35% and given a draw 31%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Fernando Alarcon 14' for Instituto Cordoba, Enner Valencia 23' for Boca Juniors, Jonathan Galván 48' for Instituto Cordoba, Miguel Merentiel 56' for Boca Juniors. On expected goals it finished 0.75–1.74.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Instituto Cordoba a 55.3% chance to finish top of the Clausura Group A: 78.0% after a win, 55.1% after a draw, 34.4% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 55.1%.
For Boca Juniors the question was the chance to finish top of the Clausura Group A, 20.1% going in: 37.8% after a win, 15.0% after a draw, 3.8% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 15.0%, 5.1 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Liga Profesional Argentina season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.