10 October 2026, 13:00 UTC

Gais vs Sirius Allsvenskan prediction & result

Gamla Ullevi, Gothenburg
Referee: Victor Wolf, Sweden
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Gais 0-1 Sirius.

Before kick-off the model made it 40% Gais, 27% draw, 33% Sirius — fair odds of 2.50, 3.70 and 3.03.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Gais at 40%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Gais0%Draw5%Sirius95%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

56'
🔁Zalán Vancsaout: Joakim Persson
🔁Nikola·Vasicout: Samuel Salter
62'
🔁Simon Jørgensenout: Christos Gravius
63'
72'
🔁Ake Anderssonout: N. Jönsson
🔁Melvin Anderssonout: Oscar Pettersson
72'
72'
🔁Victor Svenssonout: Adam Vikman
🔁Joackim Abergout: Jonas Lindberg
73'
August Wangberg
77'
78'
⚽Isak Bjerkeboassist: Joakim Persson
🔁Matteo de Brienneout: Robin Wendin Thomasson
85'
88'
🔁Isak Bjerkeboout: Mohamed Soumah
Jonas Lindberg
90+2'

Match stats — Gais vs Sirius

55%Possession45%
16Shots10
1On target3
8Corners8
1.25xG1.86

Goals against chances

Gais0 from 1.25 xGless than the chances were worth
Sirius1 from 1.86 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Gais 4-3-3
  • 1M. KrasniqiG
  • 6A. WängbergD
  • 4O. ÅgrenD
  • 24F. BeckmanD
  • 2M. de BrienneD
  • 10H. SletsjøeM
  • 7J. ÅbergM
  • 14S. JørgensenM
  • 16M. AnderssonF
  • 21N. VasićF
  • 11R. NiklassonF
Substitutes
  • 5R. ThomassonD
  • 22A. CardaklijaD
  • 12R. FrejD
  • 31C. GraviusM
  • 28L. HedlundF
  • 33A. HermansenG
  • 25Jonas LindbergM
  • 32O. PetterssonF
  • 20S. SalterF
Coach: F. Holmberg
Sirius 4-3-3
  • 34D. CelicG
  • 5H. CastegrenD
  • 15S. SandbergD
  • 4T. AnkerD
  • 22O. KrusnellD
  • 24V. SvenssonM
  • 10M. HeierM
  • 21C. NildénM
  • 30Z. VancsaF
  • 29Ake AnderssonF
  • 11I. BjerkeboF
Substitutes
  • 1I. DiawaraG
  • 20V. EkströmD
  • 35E. EldD
  • 17N. JönssonF
  • 8Matthias NarteyM
  • 7J. PerssonF
  • 2Mohamed SoumahD
  • 18A. WikmanM
  • 25O. AdinduF
Coach: Andreas Engelmark

Form going into Gais vs Sirius

Gais

All competitions we cover

  • W3-0away to Mjallby AIF20 September 2026
  • L0-2away to Djurgardens IF14 September 2026
  • D0-0BK Hacken5 September 2026
  • W4-0IF Brommapojkarna31 August 2026
  • L0-2away to Hammarby FF23 August 2026

Sirius

All competitions we cover

  • W2-1away to Orgryte IS19 September 2026
  • W2-0Degerfors IF14 September 2026
  • W1-0away to Vasteras SK FK5 September 2026
  • L0-1Malmo FF31 August 2026
  • L0-3BK Hacken21 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Allsvenskan table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9Gais28117103628+840
2Sirius2818465835+2358

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Gais vs Sirius

  • 24 May 2026Sirius 2–1 GaisAllsvenskan
  • 14 September 2025Sirius 3–0 GaisAllsvenskan
  • 24 May 2025Gais 2–1 SiriusAllsvenskan
  • 10 November 2024Gais 2–1 SiriusAllsvenskan
  • 13 July 2024Sirius 3–1 GaisAllsvenskan

Leading scorers: Gais and Sirius

Gais

No player in Allsvenskan's leading scorers — 36 league goals as a side.

Sirius

GoalsAssists

  • I. Bjerkebo157
  • R. Ure152

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Sirius won 1–0 at Gais. The model had leaned towards a win for Gais at 40% and given a win for Sirius 33%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goal: Isak Bjerkebo 78' for Sirius. On expected goals it finished 1.25–1.86.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Gais a 6.9% chance to finish in the top four: 10.5% after a win, 4.6% after a draw, 2.4% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 2.4%, 4.5 points lower than before the match.

For Sirius the question was the chance to finish top of the regular season, 73.8% going in: 85.0% after a win, 73.1% after a draw, 66.3% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 85.0%, 11.2 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Allsvenskan season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Gais v Sirius has moved

First published on 26 Sep at 38% / 29% / 33% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 40% / 27% / 33%: the biggest move is Gais's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Gais win40%▲ +2
  2. Draw27%▼ −2
  3. Sirius win33%=

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.