AIK Stockholm vs IF Brommapojkarna Allsvenskan prediction & result
Final score: AIK Stockholm 5-6 IF Brommapojkarna.
Before kick-off the model made it 44% AIK Stockholm, 26% draw, 30% IF Brommapojkarna — fair odds of 2.27, 3.85 and 3.33.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
AIK Stockholm at 44%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 11 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — AIK Stockholm vs IF Brommapojkarna
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 15K. NordfeldtG
- 17M. ThychosenD
- 20S. HausnerD
- 3H. MatthysD
- 2E. EdhD
- 18A. AliM
- 46Yannick GeigerM
- 8J. HoveM
- 10L. AssadiF
- 48A. KouameF
- 9L. CarlstrandF
- 45T. AyariM
- 5L. BergquistD
- 16Sixten GustafssonF
- 28L. JäretegM
- 30K. JoelssonG
- 7A. MujanićM
- 33D. TomasD
- 21S. WilsonM
- 34W. OlofssonD
- 1L. CavalliusG
- 27K. BarslundD
- 23J. SimpsonD
- 3A. TroelsenD
- 6O. ZandénD
- 9M. HansenM
- 20W. OdefalkM
- 21S. StrandM
- 17A. KurochkinM
- 14Kamilcan SeverF
- 10O. BergF
- 30L. BjörklundM
- 25D. BlaževićG
- 24W. DerbaliM
- 34David IssoF
- 7O. OkekeM
- 11R. ÖrqvistM
- 2P. VagićD
- 22R. BergvallD
- 12B. AmoleF
Form going into AIK Stockholm vs IF Brommapojkarna
AIK Stockholm
All competitions we cover
- L1-2away to Halmstad20 September 2026
- D1-1Mjallby AIF16 September 2026
- L1-4Vasteras SK FK12 September 2026
- D0-0away to Malmo FF7 September 2026
- W3-2Hammarby FF30 August 2026
IF Brommapojkarna
All competitions we cover
- L0-1IFK Goteborg19 September 2026
- L1-3away to Hammarby FF13 September 2026
- W2-1IF Elfsborg6 September 2026
- L0-4away to Gais31 August 2026
- W2-0Degerfors IF23 August 2026
What these results say
- AIK Stockholm failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- AIK Stockholm scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- AIK Stockholm conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- IF Brommapojkarna conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Allsvenskan table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | AIK Stockholm | 28 | 11 | 8 | 9 | 46 | 49 | -3 | 41 |
| 11 | IF Brommapojkarna | 28 | 9 | 8 | 11 | 39 | 44 | -5 | 35 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: AIK Stockholm vs IF Brommapojkarna
- 13 April 2026IF Brommapojkarna 2–2 AIK StockholmAllsvenskan
- 15 September 2025AIK Stockholm 2–1 IF BrommapojkarnaAllsvenskan
- 25 May 2025IF Brommapojkarna 0–1 AIK StockholmAllsvenskan
- 25 January 2025IF Brommapojkarna 3–0 AIK StockholmFriendlies Clubs
- 25 August 2024AIK Stockholm 2–1 IF BrommapojkarnaAllsvenskan
Leading scorers: AIK Stockholm and IF Brommapojkarna
AIK Stockholm
GoalsAssists
- J. Hove113
IF Brommapojkarna
GoalsAssists
- M. Hansen87
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
IF Brommapojkarna won 6–5 at AIK Stockholm. The model had leaned towards a win for AIK Stockholm at 44% and given a win for IF Brommapojkarna 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Simon Strand 48' for IF Brommapojkarna, Abdihakin Ali 55' for AIK Stockholm, Kamilcan Sever 59' for IF Brommapojkarna, Wilmer Odefalk 61' for IF Brommapojkarna, Kamilcan Sever 65' for IF Brommapojkarna, Anton Kurochkin 70' for IF Brommapojkarna, Taha Ayari 73' for AIK Stockholm, Sixten Gustafsson 81' for AIK Stockholm, Sixten Gustafsson 83' for AIK Stockholm, Johan Hove 90+7' for AIK Stockholm, Mads Hansen 90+9' for IF Brommapojkarna. On expected goals it finished 3.24–3.10.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave AIK Stockholm a 6.3% chance to finish in the top four: 9.1% after a win, 4.0% after a draw, 2.4% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 2.4%, 3.9 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Allsvenskan season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on AIK Stockholm v IF Brommapojkarna has moved
First published on 26 Sep at 42% / 28% / 30% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 44% / 26% / 30%: the biggest move is AIK Stockholm's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- AIK Stockholm win44%▲ +2
- Draw26%▼ −2
- IF Brommapojkarna win30%=
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.