Ried vs Red Bull Salzburg Bundesliga prediction & result
Final score: Ried 1-1 Red Bull Salzburg.
Before kick-off the model made it 34% Ried, 27% draw, 39% Red Bull Salzburg — fair odds of 2.94, 3.70 and 2.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Red Bull Salzburg at 39% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Ried vs Red Bull Salzburg
Line-ups
- 1A. LeitnerG
- 12A. BajićD
- 5D. RadonjicD
- 28S. ChukwudiD
- 30O. SteurerD
- 17P. PomerD
- 22S. SchwabM
- 6Y. MaartM
- 8M. RasnerM
- 9N. SissokoF
- 10J. NasraweF
- 47Evan Eghosa AisowierenM
- 29L. CapanD
- 21T. KusanovicF
- 19T. Lund JensenM
- 4L. MalicsekD
- 11J. RhodesM
- 7O. SorgD
- 77F. WimmerG
- 15J. BoguoF
- 52Christian ZawieschitzkyG
- 18N. VeratschnigD
- 44K. BomaD
- 47Valentin ZabranskyD
- 31D. SchmidD
- 32A. BarryM
- 15B. MazurekM
- 20E. BaidooM
- 8S. KitanoM
- 11Y. VertessenM
- 9H. TabakovićF
- 7U. TohumcuM
- 23D. RedzicF
- 39L. MorgallaD
- 35J. LindstrømM
- 13F. KrätzigD
- 19K. KonatéF
- 92T. HupfaufG
- 21T. DrexlerD
- 33A. CamaraM
Form going into Ried vs Red Bull Salzburg
Ried
- L2-3away to TSV Hartberg30 August 2026
- W1-0Grazer AK21 August 2026
- L1-4away to Lask Linz14 August 2026
- L1-2Rapid Vienna9 August 2026
Red Bull Salzburg
- W5-1Rapid Vienna2 September 2026
- W4-1Austria Vienna30 August 2026
- W3-0away to WSG Wattens16 August 2026
- D1-1away to Wolfsberger AC9 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Ried | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 5 |
| 3 | Red Bull Salzburg | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 15 | 4 | +11 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Ried vs Red Bull Salzburg
- 11 September 2026Ried 1–1 Red Bull SalzburgBundesliga
- 2 November 2025Red Bull Salzburg 4–1 RiedBundesliga
- 2 August 2025Ried 2–2 Red Bull SalzburgBundesliga
- 12 October 2023Red Bull Salzburg 1–0 RiedFriendlies Clubs
- 26 February 2023Red Bull Salzburg 2–0 RiedBundesliga
- 10 September 2022Ried 0–3 Red Bull SalzburgBundesliga
Leading scorers: Ried and Red Bull Salzburg
Ried
No player in Bundesliga's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
Red Bull Salzburg
- K. Konaté4 goals
- H. Tabaković3 goals
- Y. Vertessen2 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.