11 September 2026, 17:30 UTC

Ried vs Red Bull Salzburg Bundesliga prediction & result

Innviertel Arena, Ried
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Ried 1-1 Red Bull Salzburg.

Before kick-off the model made it 34% Ried, 27% draw, 39% Red Bull Salzburg — fair odds of 2.94, 3.70 and 2.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Red Bull Salzburg at 39% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Ried4%Draw91%Red Bull Salzburg5%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

🔁Niama Sissokoout: Joris Boguo
54'
58'
🔁Yorbe Vertessenout: Jesper Lindstrom
64'
Sota Kitano
66'
Abubakr Barry
Stefan Schwab
66'
🔁Jussef Nasraweout: J. Rhodes
72'
73'
🔁Sota Kitanoout: Karim Konate
73'
🔁Edmund Baidooout: Damir Redzic
🔁Martin Rasnerout: Lukas Malicsek
74'
M. Despotović
79'
84'
⚽Karim Konate
⚽Philipp Pomerassist: Moegamat Yusuf Maart
86'
🔁J. Rhodesout: Evan Eghosa Aisowieren
90+2'
90+3'
Nikolas Veratschnig
Joris Boguo
90+3'

Match stats — Ried vs Red Bull Salzburg

32%Possession68%
8Shots24
2On target6
5Corners7

Line-ups

Ried 5-3-2
  • 1A. LeitnerG
  • 12A. BajićD
  • 5D. RadonjicD
  • 28S. ChukwudiD
  • 30O. SteurerD
  • 17P. PomerD
  • 22S. SchwabM
  • 6Y. MaartM
  • 8M. RasnerM
  • 9N. SissokoF
  • 10J. NasraweF
Substitutes
  • 47Evan Eghosa AisowierenM
  • 29L. CapanD
  • 21T. KusanovicF
  • 19T. Lund JensenM
  • 4L. MalicsekD
  • 11J. RhodesM
  • 7O. SorgD
  • 77F. WimmerG
  • 15J. BoguoF
Coach: M. Despotović
Red Bull Salzburg 4-2-3-1
  • 52Christian ZawieschitzkyG
  • 18N. VeratschnigD
  • 44K. BomaD
  • 47Valentin ZabranskyD
  • 31D. SchmidD
  • 32A. BarryM
  • 15B. MazurekM
  • 20E. BaidooM
  • 8S. KitanoM
  • 11Y. VertessenM
  • 9H. TabakovićF
Substitutes
  • 7U. TohumcuM
  • 23D. RedzicF
  • 39L. MorgallaD
  • 35J. LindstrømM
  • 13F. KrätzigD
  • 19K. KonatéF
  • 92T. HupfaufG
  • 21T. DrexlerD
  • 33A. CamaraM
Coach: D. Röhl

Form going into Ried vs Red Bull Salzburg

Ried

All competitions we cover

  • L2-3away to TSV Hartberg30 August 2026
  • W1-0Grazer AK21 August 2026
  • L1-4away to Lask Linz14 August 2026
  • L1-2Rapid Vienna9 August 2026
  • D1-1away to Austria Lustenau2 August 2026

Red Bull Salzburg

All competitions we cover

  • W5-1Rapid Vienna2 September 2026
  • W4-1Austria Vienna30 August 2026
  • W3-0Mjallby AIF27 August 2026
  • W1-0away to Mjallby AIF20 August 2026
  • W3-0away to WSG Wattens16 August 2026

What these results say

  • Ried scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Ried failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Ried conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Red Bull Salzburg won every one of these 5 matches.
  • Red Bull Salzburg scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Red Bull Salzburg had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Bundesliga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5Ried104331817+115
2Red Bull Salzburg10730245+1924

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Ried vs Red Bull Salzburg

  • 2 November 2025Red Bull Salzburg 4–1 RiedBundesliga
  • 2 August 2025Ried 2–2 Red Bull SalzburgBundesliga
  • 12 October 2023Red Bull Salzburg 1–0 RiedFriendlies Clubs
  • 26 February 2023Red Bull Salzburg 2–0 RiedBundesliga
  • 10 September 2022Ried 0–3 Red Bull SalzburgBundesliga

Leading scorers: Ried and Red Bull Salzburg

Ried

GoalsAssists

  • P. Pomer41
  • S. Schwab41

Red Bull Salzburg

GoalsAssists

  • H. Tabaković70
  • K. Konaté40

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Ried and Red Bull Salzburg drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Red Bull Salzburg at 39% and given a draw 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Karim Konate 84' for Red Bull Salzburg, Philipp Pomer 86' for Ried.

How the call on Ried v Red Bull Salzburg has moved

First published on 1 Sep at 37% / 28% / 35% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 34% / 27% / 39%: the biggest move is Red Bull Salzburg's chance of winning, up 4 points.

  1. Ried win34%▼ −3
  2. Draw27%▼ −1
  3. Red Bull Salzburg win39%▲ +4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.