11 September 2026, 16:30 UTC

SV Darmstadt 98 vs Arminia Bielefeld 2. Bundesliga prediction & result

Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor, Darmstadt
Full time2 1

Final score: SV Darmstadt 98 2-1 Arminia Bielefeld.

Before kick-off the model made it 39% SV Darmstadt 98, 29% draw, 32% Arminia Bielefeld — fair odds of 2.56, 3.45 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts SV Darmstadt 98 at 39% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

SV Darmstadt 9896%Draw4%Arminia Bielefeld0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Lee Ho-Jaeassist: Noah Weisshaupt
3'
33'
monju thaddaus momuluh
Raoul Petretta
35'
Noah Weisshaupt
45+2'
Kai Klefisch
48'
57'
🔁Marvin Mehlemout: David Min
🔁Marco Richterout: Lance Duijvestijn
57'
59'
Marius Worl
66'
Henri Koudossou
75'
🔁monju thaddaus momuluhout: Leon Jensen
🔁Lee Ho-Jaeout: Nicolas Verkooijen
76'
🔁Noah Weisshauptout: Yosuke Furukawa
82'
🔁Carlo Sickingerout: Ibrahim El Kadiri
82'
🔁Raoul Petrettaout: William Mikelbrencis
82'
84'
🔁Marius Worlout: Joel Felix
Milan Smit (pen)
86'

Match stats — SV Darmstadt 98 vs Arminia Bielefeld

48%Possession52%
12Shots16
6On target4
4Corners8

Line-ups

SV Darmstadt 98 4-4-2
  • 1M. SchuhenG
  • 28C. LannertD
  • 49Y. LührsD
  • 6P. PfeifferD
  • 18R. PetrettaD
  • 5M. RichterM
  • 17K. KlefischM
  • 23C. SickingerM
  • 7N. WeißhauptM
  • 9Lee Ho-JaeF
  • 36M. SmitF
Substitutes
  • 24Benedikt BörnerG
  • 4Grayson DettoniD
  • 41L. DuijvestijnM
  • 11I. El KadiriF
  • 44Y. FurukawaF
  • 22L. KehlM
  • 3F. KleinhanslD
  • 25W. MikelbrencisD
  • 10N. VerkooijenM
Coach: F. Kohfeldt
Arminia Bielefeld 4-3-3
  • 1J. KerskenG
  • 7H. KoudossouD
  • 5M. BauerD
  • 19M. GroßerD
  • 17A. SickerD
  • 6M. MehlemM
  • 21S. RussoM
  • 38M. WörlM
  • 14M. MomuluhF
  • 11J. GrodowskiF
  • 10J. RocheltF
Substitutes
  • 27Benjamin Bediako BoakyeF
  • 3J. FelixD
  • 29T. HandwerkerD
  • 31L. JensenM
  • 9D. MinF
  • 18L. OppermannG
  • 8S. SchreckM
  • 42T. WegenerM
  • 30I. YoungF
Coach: Oliver Kirch

Form going into SV Darmstadt 98 vs Arminia Bielefeld

SV Darmstadt 98

  • L0-3away to 1. FC Kaiserslautern5 September 2026
  • L0-1Hannover 9630 August 2026
  • L0-1away to Dynamo Dresden16 August 2026
  • D2-2Holstein Kiel8 August 2026

Arminia Bielefeld

  • D2-2FC St. Pauli4 September 2026
  • L1-4away to 1. FC Nürnberg29 August 2026
  • W3-0Energie Cottbus16 August 2026
  • L1-2away to Karlsruher SC8 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

2. Bundesliga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
16SV Darmstadt 98511348-44
14Arminia Bielefeld5113810-24

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: SV Darmstadt 98 vs Arminia Bielefeld

  • 4 April 2026Arminia Bielefeld 2–1 SV Darmstadt 982. Bundesliga
  • 1 November 2025SV Darmstadt 98 2–2 Arminia Bielefeld2. Bundesliga
  • 11 March 2023Arminia Bielefeld 3–1 SV Darmstadt 982. Bundesliga
  • 4 September 2022SV Darmstadt 98 1–1 Arminia Bielefeld2. Bundesliga
  • 18 June 2020Arminia Bielefeld 1–0 SV Darmstadt 982. Bundesliga
  • 1 December 2019SV Darmstadt 98 1–3 Arminia Bielefeld2. Bundesliga

Leading scorers: SV Darmstadt 98 and Arminia Bielefeld

SV Darmstadt 98

No player in 2. Bundesliga's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.

Arminia Bielefeld

  • J. Grodowski4 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.