MSV Duisburg
vs
Stuttgart II
3. Liga prediction
Our model says: MSV Duisburg 2–1 Stuttgart II
The model makes it 62% MSV Duisburg, 21% draw, 17% Stuttgart II — fair odds of 1.61, 4.76 and 5.88. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (10%).
Expected goals: MSV Duisburg 2.43, Stuttgart II 1.06.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 68%, under 2.5: 32%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to MSV Duisburg: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- MSV Duisburg are top on 24 points from 9 games; Stuttgart II are 6th on 14 points from 10 games — 3. Liga.
- MSV Duisburg are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 4-2 win away to FC Saarbrücken.
- Stuttgart II are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to Fortuna Köln.
- Last 6 meetings: MSV Duisburg 3 wins to 0, 3 draws; the most recent, 18 January 2026, ended Stuttgart II 0–4 MSV Duisburg.
More 3. Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: MSV Duisburg vs Stuttgart II
Has the model earned this number?
It puts MSV Duisburg at 62% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 989 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into MSV Duisburg vs Stuttgart II
MSV Duisburg
- W4-2away to FC Saarbrücken13 October 2026
- W3-2Hoffenheim II10 October 2026
- W4-1away to SV Wehen20 September 2026
- W2-1Havelse15 September 2026
- L1-2away to Fortuna Düsseldorf12 September 2026
Stuttgart II
- W1-0away to Fortuna Köln16 October 2026
- W3-2Hoffenheim II13 October 2026
- D1-1away to SV Meppen10 October 2026
- D3-3SSV Jahn Regensburg19 September 2026
- L2-3away to Hansa Rostock16 September 2026
What these results say
- MSV Duisburg scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- MSV Duisburg conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for MSV Duisburg had three goals or more.
- Stuttgart II scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Stuttgart II conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Stuttgart II.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
3. Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MSV Duisburg | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 26 | 11 | +15 | 24 |
| 6 | Stuttgart II | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 17 | 18 | -1 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
MSV Duisburg
Chance to win the league · 58% today
Stuttgart II
Chance to finish in the top four · 8% today
From our 3. Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: MSV Duisburg vs Stuttgart II
- 18 January 2026Stuttgart II 0–4 MSV Duisburg3. Liga
- 2 August 2025MSV Duisburg 2–1 Stuttgart II3. Liga
- 12 April 2015Stuttgart II 1–2 MSV Duisburg3. Liga
- 4 October 2014MSV Duisburg 1–1 Stuttgart II3. Liga
- 4 April 2014MSV Duisburg 0–0 Stuttgart II3. Liga
- 26 October 2013Stuttgart II 1–1 MSV Duisburg3. Liga
Leading scorers: MSV Duisburg and Stuttgart II
MSV Duisburg
GoalsAssists
- P. Remmert30
- L. Lobinger12
- R. Bulić11
Stuttgart II
GoalsAssists
- L. Penna11
- E. Redzepi11
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
MSV Duisburg carry a model rating of 6.45 against 6.19 for Stuttgart II. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.43 goals for MSV Duisburg and 1.06 for Stuttgart II. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
MSV Duisburg rate 0.70 in attack and 1.57 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Stuttgart II rate 0.56 and 2.13.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives MSV Duisburg a 58.3% chance of the title and Stuttgart II 0.5%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives MSV Duisburg the highest probability at 62%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.43 expected goals for MSV Duisburg against 1.06 for Stuttgart II. MSV Duisburg's attack/defence rating is 0.7/1.57 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.56/2.13 for Stuttgart II.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
MSV Duisburg at home · Stuttgart II away
League matches only, 3. Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 3. Liga matches this season: MSV Duisburg 9, Stuttgart II 10.
MSV Duisburg score most often in the 61–75 minute window (9 goals); Stuttgart II have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
MSV Duisburg
- at Preußen Münster7 Nov · 3. Ligawin 34%
- vs Hansa Rostock22 Nov · 3. Ligawin 54%
- at SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach28 Nov · 3. Ligawin 49%
Stuttgart II
- vs Verl8 Nov · 3. Ligawin 38%
- vs FC Ingolstadt 0422 Nov · 3. Ligawin 41%
- at Waldhof Mannheim28 Nov · 3. Ligawin 31%
- vs SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach5 Dec · 3. Ligawin 52%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.