Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Incheon United K League 1 prediction & result
Final score: Ulsan Hyundai FC 2-1 Incheon United.
Before kick-off the model made it 48% Ulsan Hyundai FC, 27% draw, 25% Incheon United — fair odds of 2.08, 3.70 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Ulsan Hyundai FC at 48% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Incheon United
Line-ups
- 21Jo Hyeon-WooG
- 77Sim Sang-MinD
- 4Seo Myung-GuanD
- 15Jung Seung-HyunD
- 26Cho Hyun-TaekD
- 6D. BojanicM
- 55T. Oude KotteM
- 27PedrinhoM
- 10Lee Dong-GyeongM
- 14Lee Jin-HyunM
- 11Erick FariasF
- 13Ryu Seong-MinG
- 66M. TrojakD
- 19Kim Young-GwonD
- 16Park Woo-jinM
- 33Jang Si-YoungF
- 17Kang Sang-WooD
- 24Lee Gyu-SeongM
- 72Baek In-WooM
- 38Park Yong-Woo
- 1Kim Dong-HeonG
- 39Kim Myung-soonD
- 28Kim Yeon-SooD
- 2IbizaD
- 32Lee Ju-YongD
- 11GersoM
- 15Seo Jae-MinM
- 5Lee Myoung-JooM
- 70Leandro RibeiroM
- 72Lee Chung-YongF
- 9S. MugosaF
- 21Lee Tae-HuiG
- 3Lee Sang-GiD
- 6Mun Ji-HwanM
- 13Choi Seung-guD
- 10Lee Dong-RyulF
- 17Kim Seong-MinM
- 23Jeong Chi-InM
- 30Kim Young-whanM
- 99M. FerrierF
Form going into Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Incheon United
Ulsan Hyundai FC
All competitions we cover
- W1-0FC Seoul8 September 2026
- D0-0away to Jeju United FC5 September 2026
- W3-1Gimcheon Sangmu FC29 August 2026
- L1-2away to Daejeon Citizen26 August 2026
- L0-1away to Jeonbuk Motors22 August 2026
Incheon United
All competitions we cover
- W2-1Bucheon FC 19958 September 2026
- L0-1away to FC Seoul5 September 2026
- D1-1Jeonbuk Motors30 August 2026
- L1-2away to FC Anyang26 August 2026
- W1-0away to Gwangju FC23 August 2026
What these results say
- Incheon United scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Incheon United conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
K League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Ulsan Hyundai FC | 33 | 15 | 6 | 12 | 52 | 47 | +5 | 51 |
| 6 | Incheon United | 33 | 12 | 10 | 11 | 43 | 35 | +8 | 46 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Ulsan Hyundai FC and Incheon United
Ulsan Hyundai FC
GoalsAssists
- Yago Cariello101
- Lee Dong-Gyeong88
Incheon United
GoalsAssists
- S. Mugoša111
- M. Ferrier51
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Ulsan Hyundai FC beat Incheon United 2–1. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Ulsan Hyundai FC at 48%. The goals: Jung Seung-Hyun 53' for Ulsan Hyundai FC, Lee Dong-Gyeong 56' for Ulsan Hyundai FC, S. Mugosa (penalty) 73' for Incheon United.
How the call on Ulsan Hyundai FC v Incheon United has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 48% / 24% / 28% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 48% / 27% / 25%: the biggest move is Incheon United's chance of winning, down 3 points.
- Ulsan Hyundai FC win48%=
- Draw27%▲ +3
- Incheon United win25%▼ −3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often Ulsan Hyundai FC's most recent league matches and Incheon United's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.