Ulsan Hyundai FC
vs
Incheon United
K League 1 prediction & result
Final score: Ulsan Hyundai FC 2-1 Incheon United.
Before kick-off the model made it 45% Ulsan Hyundai FC, 29% draw, 26% Incheon United — fair odds of 2.22, 3.45 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.66, Incheon United 0.99.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Model insights: Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Incheon United
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Ulsan Hyundai FC at 45% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Incheon United
Ulsan Hyundai FC
- W1-0FC Seoul8 September 2026
- D0-0away to Jeju United FC5 September 2026
- W3-1Gimcheon Sangmu FC29 August 2026
- L1-2away to Daejeon Citizen26 August 2026
Incheon United
- W2-1Bucheon FC 19958 September 2026
- L0-1away to FC Seoul5 September 2026
- D1-1Jeonbuk Motors30 August 2026
- L1-2away to FC Anyang26 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
K League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Ulsan Hyundai FC | 29 | 14 | 5 | 10 | 44 | 38 | +6 | 47 |
| 7 | Incheon United | 28 | 10 | 7 | 11 | 35 | 32 | +3 | 37 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Ulsan Hyundai FC and Incheon United
Ulsan Hyundai FC
- Yago Cariello6 goals
- Lee Dong-Gyeong4 goals5 assists
Incheon United
- S. Mugoša9 goals
- M. Ferrier4 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Ulsan Hyundai FC carry a model rating of 6.55 against 6.44 for Incheon United. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.66 goals for Ulsan Hyundai FC and 0.99 for Incheon United. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Ulsan Hyundai FC rate 0.69 in attack and 1.26 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Incheon United rate 0.65 and 1.48.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Ulsan Hyundai FC the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Ulsan Hyundai FC against 0.99 for Incheon United. Ulsan Hyundai FC's attack/defence rating is 0.69/1.26 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.65/1.48 for Incheon United.