Pohang Steelers
vs
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
K League 1 prediction
The model makes it 19% Pohang Steelers, 34% draw, 47% Gimcheon Sangmu FC — fair odds of 5.26, 2.94 and 2.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1 (20%).
Expected goals: Pohang Steelers 0.57, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.06.
Both teams to score: 29%. Over 2.5 goals: 22%, under 2.5: 78%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Pohang Steelers
- W2-1away to Jeju United FC25 August 2026
- L0-3away to Bucheon FC 199522 August 2026
- W2-1away to Gwangju FC15 August 2026
- L0-2Ulsan Hyundai FC8 August 2026
- L0-1Gimcheon Sangmu FC1 August 2026
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
- D0-0Jeonbuk Motors25 August 2026
- D0-0away to Jeju United FC22 August 2026
- D1-1away to Incheon United16 August 2026
- D0-0FC Seoul8 August 2026
- W1-0away to Pohang Steelers1 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
K League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Pohang Steelers | 25 | 10 | 4 | 11 | 24 | 29 | -5 | 34 |
| 11 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC | 25 | 4 | 15 | 6 | 23 | 29 | -6 | 27 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Pohang Steelers
- Lee Ho-Jae4 goals
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
- Go Jae-Hyeon3 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
A clear gap in the ratings
Pohang Steelers carry a model rating of 6.06 against 6.65 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Pohang Steelers L-L-W-L-W; Gimcheon Sangmu FC W-D-D-D-D.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 0.57 goals for Pohang Steelers and 1.06 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Pohang Steelers rate 0.37 in attack and 1.85 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Gimcheon Sangmu FC rate 0.41 and 0.81.
That points to 22% for over two and a half goals and 29% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 0-1 (20%), 0-0 (20%), 1-1 (12%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Pohang Steelers, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 601 correct results out of 1266 settled predictions (47%), with 115 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Gimcheon Sangmu FC the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.57 expected goals for Pohang Steelers against 1.06 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC. Pohang Steelers's attack/defence rating is 0.37/1.85 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.41/0.81 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC.