Gwangju FC vs Jeju United FC K League 1 prediction & result
Final score: Gwangju FC 0-1 Jeju United FC.
Before kick-off the model made it 37% Gwangju FC, 27% draw, 36% Jeju United FC — fair odds of 2.70, 3.70 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Gwangju FC at 37% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 2,861 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Gwangju FC vs Jeju United FC
Line-ups
- 23Kim Dong-HwaG
- 22Kwon Sung-YunD
- 37Ri Yong-jikD
- 2Jang Seok-HwanD
- 17Joao PedroD
- 40Shin Chang-MooM
- 10Choi Kyoung-RokM
- 14Yu Je-HoM
- 9Ha Seung-UnM
- 50A. Ba LouaF
- 18J. IredaleF
- 1Kim Kyeong-minG
- 19Ahn Hyeok-JuF
- 39Min Sang-GiD
- 33Park Won-JaeD
- 7E. SaitoskiM
- 24Y. Kim
- 8Ju Se-JongM
- 16Joung Ji-hunM
- 11H. FridjonssonF
- 1Kim Dong-JunG
- 47Park Min-jaeD
- 2T. FigueiredoD
- 3J. CelestineD
- 13Jeong WoonD
- 33Park Su-binM
- 5ItaloM
- 20M. JangM
- 94Emerson NeguebaM
- 11Shin Sang-EunF
- 9Matheus AiasF
- 81J. HeoG
- 4Heo Kang-JunD
- 17Yu In-SooD
- 41Kim Jae-WooD
- 88Jo In-jungD
- 7Park Chang-JunF
- 24Choi Byung-wookM
- 39Kim Jae-minM
- 18Kim Shin-JinF
Form going into Gwangju FC vs Jeju United FC
Gwangju FC
- D2-2away to Gimcheon Sangmu FC6 September 2026
Jeju United FC
- D0-0Ulsan Hyundai FC5 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
K League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Gwangju FC | 31 | 2 | 12 | 17 | 25 | 66 | -41 | 18 |
| 4 | Jeju United FC | 31 | 12 | 10 | 9 | 36 | 31 | +5 | 46 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Gwangju FC and Jeju United FC
Gwangju FC
GoalsAssists
- J. Iredale40
Jeju United FC
GoalsAssists
- Lee Kun-Hee41
- Matheus Aiás32
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.