Gwangju FC
vs
Jeju United FC
K League 1 prediction
The model makes it 35% Gwangju FC, 21% draw, 44% Jeju United FC — fair odds of 2.86, 4.76 and 2.27. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (8%).
Expected goals: Gwangju FC 1.92, Jeju United FC 2.14.
Both teams to score: 76%. Over 2.5 goals: 77%, under 2.5: 23%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Gwangju FC
- L0-1Incheon United23 August 2026
- L1-2Pohang Steelers15 August 2026
- D0-0away to Bucheon FC 19958 August 2026
- L0-2away to Daejeon Citizen2 August 2026
- L1-2Jeju United FC26 July 2026
Jeju United FC
- L1-2Pohang Steelers25 August 2026
- D0-0Gimcheon Sangmu FC22 August 2026
- W2-0FC Anyang15 August 2026
- W3-1away to Jeonbuk Motors8 August 2026
- D3-3Incheon United2 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
K League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Gwangju FC | 24 | 1 | 8 | 15 | 12 | 50 | -38 | 11 |
| 5 | Jeju United FC | 25 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 28 | 26 | +2 | 35 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
The two sides
Gwangju FC carry a model rating of 6.14 against 6.37 for Jeju United FC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Gwangju FC L-L-D-L-L; Jeju United FC D-W-W-D-L.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.92 goals for Gwangju FC and 2.14 for Jeju United FC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Gwangju FC rate 0.50 in attack and 2.07 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Jeju United FC rate 0.74 and 2.03.
That points to 77% for over two and a half goals and 76% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-2 (8%), 1-1 (7%), 2-2 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 601 correct results out of 1266 settled predictions (47%), with 115 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Jeju United FC the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.92 expected goals for Gwangju FC against 2.14 for Jeju United FC. Gwangju FC's attack/defence rating is 0.5/2.07 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.74/2.03 for Jeju United FC.