Gangwon FC
vs
Jeonbuk Motors
K League 1 prediction
The model makes it 52% Gangwon FC, 25% draw, 23% Jeonbuk Motors — fair odds of 1.92, 4.00 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Gangwon FC 1.75, Jeonbuk Motors 1.09.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Gangwon FC
- L0-3away to Daejeon Citizen23 August 2026
- W3-2away to Ulsan Hyundai FC16 August 2026
- L0-3Bucheon FC 19951 August 2026
- L1-2away to FC Anyang26 July 2026
- D1-1away to Jeju United FC21 July 2026
Jeonbuk Motors
- D0-0away to Gimcheon Sangmu FC25 August 2026
- W1-0Ulsan Hyundai FC22 August 2026
- L2-3away to Bucheon FC 199516 August 2026
- L1-3Jeju United FC8 August 2026
- D0-0FC Seoul1 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
K League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Gangwon FC | 23 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 28 | 22 | +6 | 35 |
| 2 | Jeonbuk Motors | 25 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 31 | 22 | +9 | 38 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Gangwon FC
- A. Halaihal3 goals
Jeonbuk Motors
- Lee Seung-Woo3 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Gangwon FC carry a model rating of 6.58 against 6.52 for Jeonbuk Motors. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Gangwon FC D-L-L-W-L; Jeonbuk Motors D-L-L-W-D.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.75 goals for Gangwon FC and 1.09 for Jeonbuk Motors. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Gangwon FC rate 0.84 in attack and 1.47 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Jeonbuk Motors rate 0.53 and 1.10.
That points to 54% for over two and a half goals and 55% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (10%), 1-0 (10%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Jeonbuk Motors, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 601 correct results out of 1266 settled predictions (47%), with 115 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Gangwon FC the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Gangwon FC against 1.09 for Jeonbuk Motors. Gangwon FC's attack/defence rating is 0.84/1.47 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.53/1.1 for Jeonbuk Motors.