Incheon United vs Bucheon FC 1995 K League 1 prediction & result
Final score: Incheon United 2-1 Bucheon FC 1995.
Before kick-off the model made it 39% Incheon United, 29% draw, 32% Bucheon FC 1995 — fair odds of 2.56, 3.45 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Incheon United at 39% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 2,861 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Incheon United vs Bucheon FC 1995
Line-ups
- 1Kim Dong-HeonG
- 39Kim Myung-soonD
- 28Kim Yeon-Soo
- 2IbizaD
- 32Lee Ju-YongD
- 10Lee Dong-RyulM
- 15Seo Jae-MinM
- 5Lee Myoung-JooM
- 70Leandro RibeiroM
- 9S. MugosaF
- 99M. FerrierF
- 21Lee Tae-HuiG
- 3Lee Sang-GiD
- 6Mun Ji-HwanM
- 13Choi Seung-guD
- 11GersoF
- 17Kim Seong-MinM
- 26Lee Min-HyukM
- 30Kim Young-whanM
- 72Lee Chung-YongM
- 1H. KimG
- 4S. Ye-Geon
- 3Patrick WilliamD
- 6Jeong Ho-JinD
- 26An Tae-HyunM
- 20Hong Sung-WookM
- 23K. TakahashiM
- 71Kim Seung-BinM
- 10Rodrigo BassaniF
- 99Gustavo NescauF
- 11GalegoF
- 31Lee Sang-hyeonG
- 29Baek Dong-GyuD
- 83Jo Seong-JunF
- 8Yoon Bit-GaramM
- 16Kim Sang-JunM
- 24Kim Dong-HyunM
- 25Yeo Bong-HunM
- 13Kim Min-JunM
- 18Lee Eui-HyeongF
Form going into Incheon United vs Bucheon FC 1995
Incheon United
- L0-1away to FC Seoul5 September 2026
- D1-1Jeonbuk Motors30 August 2026
- L1-2away to FC Anyang26 August 2026
- W1-0away to Gwangju FC23 August 2026
- D1-1Gimcheon Sangmu FC16 August 2026
Bucheon FC 1995
- L0-5Daejeon Citizen5 September 2026
What these results say
- Incheon United failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Incheon United scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Incheon United conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
K League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Incheon United | 31 | 11 | 9 | 11 | 39 | 33 | +6 | 42 |
| 11 | Bucheon FC 1995 | 31 | 7 | 11 | 13 | 31 | 42 | -11 | 32 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Incheon United and Bucheon FC 1995
Incheon United
GoalsAssists
- S. Mugoša100
- M. Ferrier50
Bucheon FC 1995
GoalsAssists
- Jefferson Galego41
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.