Incheon United
vs
Bucheon FC 1995
K League 1 prediction
The model makes it 53% Incheon United, 22% draw, 25% Bucheon FC 1995 — fair odds of 1.89, 4.55 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Incheon United 2.11, Bucheon FC 1995 1.43.
Both teams to score: 67%. Over 2.5 goals: 68%, under 2.5: 32%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Incheon United
- W1-0away to Gwangju FC23 August 2026
- D1-1Gimcheon Sangmu FC16 August 2026
- D3-3away to Jeju United FC2 August 2026
- D1-1Bucheon FC 199526 July 2026
- W2-1away to Ulsan Hyundai FC21 July 2026
Bucheon FC 1995
- W3-0Pohang Steelers22 August 2026
- W3-2Jeonbuk Motors16 August 2026
- D0-0Gwangju FC8 August 2026
- W3-0away to Gangwon FC1 August 2026
- D1-1away to Incheon United26 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
K League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Incheon United | 23 | 9 | 6 | 8 | 30 | 25 | +5 | 33 |
| 9 | Bucheon FC 1995 | 24 | 7 | 9 | 8 | 27 | 27 | 0 | 30 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Incheon United
- S. Mugoša7 goals
- M. Ferrier4 goals
Bucheon FC 1995
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Incheon United carry a model rating of 6.72 against 6.68 for Bucheon FC 1995. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Incheon United W-D-D-D-W; Bucheon FC 1995 D-W-D-W-W.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.11 goals for Incheon United and 1.43 for Bucheon FC 1995. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Incheon United rate 0.79 in attack and 1.04 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Bucheon FC 1995 rate 0.98 and 1.41.
That points to 68% for over two and a half goals and 67% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (9%), 1-1 (9%), 2-2 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 595 correct results out of 1255 settled predictions (47%), with 114 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Incheon United the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.11 expected goals for Incheon United against 1.43 for Bucheon FC 1995. Incheon United's attack/defence rating is 0.79/1.04 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.98/1.41 for Bucheon FC 1995.