8 September 2026, 00:15 UTC

Union Santa Fe vs Instituto Cordoba Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result

Estadio 15 de Abril, Santa Fe
Full time3 – 2

Final score: Union Santa Fe 3-2 Instituto Cordoba.

Before kick-off the model made it 34% Union Santa Fe, 30% draw, 36% Instituto Cordoba — fair odds of 2.94, 3.33 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Instituto Cordoba at 36% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Union Santa Fe96%Draw4%Instituto Cordoba0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals, and a card each of the 2 sendings-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

13'
⚽Leonel Mosevichassist: Alex Luna
⚽Brahian Cuelloassist: Juan Pintado
25'
Emilio Giaccone
28'
37'
Fernando Alarcon
44'
Matías Gallardo
⚽Cristian Tarragonaassist: Brahian Cuello
48'
58'
🔁Jhon Córdobaout: Jeremías Ezequiel Lázaro
58'
🔁Matías Tisseraout: Nicolás Guerra
🔁Emilio Giacconeout: Joaquin Mosqueira
62'
🔁Brahian Cuelloout: Misael Aguirre
70'
🔁Marcelo Estigarribaout: Erik Ramirez
70'
73'
🔁Jonathan Galvánout: Hernán De La Fuente
73'
🔁Gustavo Abregúout: Juan Ignacio Méndez
73'
🔁Giuliano Ceratoout: Facundo Ezquel Suarez
⚽Misael Aguirreassist: Lucas Menossi
74'
83'
Alex Luna
87'
⚽Hernán De La Fuenteassist: Alex Luna
•Cristian Tarragona
89'
Cristian Tarragona
90'
🔁Juan Pintadoout: Nazareno Garcia Fazzi
90+1'
🔁Lucas Menossiout: Mateo Peresutti
90+1'
90+6'
Matías Gallardo
90+8'
Facundo Ezquel Suarez

Match stats — Union Santa Fe vs Instituto Cordoba

43%Possession57%
9Shots11
4On target2
2Corners7

Line-ups

Union Santa Fe 4-4-2
  • 21M. MansillaG
  • 15J. PintadoD
  • 44T. FagioliD
  • 26J. LudueñaD
  • 18L. AyalaD
  • 22B. CuelloM
  • 5L. MenossiM
  • 8E. GiacconeM
  • 10V. MalcorraM
  • 25C. TarragonaF
  • 19M. EstigarribiaF
Substitutes
  • 36M. AimarD
  • 38V. J. CerrudoF
  • 32N. GarciaD
  • 46S. GrellaM
  • 40L. MeuliG
  • 17J. MosqueiraM
  • 34M. PeresuttiM
  • 12B. PittónD
  • 43E. RamírezF
Coach: Leonardo Madelon
Instituto Cordoba 3-4-3
  • 29M. LedesmaG
  • 26L. MosevichD
  • 30J. GalvánD
  • 6F. AlarcónD
  • 44G. CeratoM
  • 10A. LunaM
  • 55G. AbregúM
  • 3D. SosaM
  • 20J. CórdobaF
  • 17M. TisseraF
  • 15M. GallardoF
Substitutes
  • 32A. BravoD
  • 8J. AcevedoM
  • 2H. De La FuenteD
  • 11M. FonsecaF
  • 7N. GuerraF
  • 21J. LázaroM
  • 22A. MassaccesiD
  • 23J. MeliD
  • 13I. MéndezM
Coach: Diego Flores

Form going into Union Santa Fe vs Instituto Cordoba

Union Santa Fe

All competitions we cover

  • W4-1Sarmiento Junin28 August 2026
  • W3-1away to Aldosivi21 August 2026
  • L0-1away to San Lorenzo15 August 2026
  • L1-2Central Cordoba de Santiago11 August 2026
  • W2-1Lanus6 August 2026

Instituto Cordoba

All competitions we cover

  • W1-0San Lorenzo1 September 2026
  • D0-0away to Atletico Tucuman22 August 2026
  • W1-0away to Central Cordoba de Santiago16 August 2026
  • W1-0Gimnasia Mendoza9 August 2026
  • W1-0away to Lanus3 August 2026

What these results say

  • Union Santa Fe conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Union Santa Fe scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Union Santa Fe had three goals or more.
  • Instituto Cordoba went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • Instituto Cordoba kept a clean sheet in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Every one of these 5 matches for Instituto Cordoba had two goals or fewer.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Liga Profesional Argentina table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10Union Santa Fe145272123-217
1Instituto Cordoba1410222110+1132

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Union Santa Fe vs Instituto Cordoba

  • 1 March 2026Instituto Cordoba 1–2 Union Santa FeLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 15 August 2025Instituto Cordoba 0–4 Union Santa FeLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 14 February 2025Union Santa Fe 0–0 Instituto CordobaLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 18 May 2024Instituto Cordoba 1–1 Union Santa FeLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 6 February 2023Union Santa Fe 0–2 Instituto CordobaLiga Profesional Argentina

The full Union Santa Fe vs Instituto Cordoba record →

Leading scorers: Union Santa Fe and Instituto Cordoba

Union Santa Fe

GoalsAssists

  • C. Tarragona152

Instituto Cordoba

GoalsAssists

  • A. Luna73

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Union Santa Fe beat Instituto Cordoba 3–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Instituto Cordoba at 36% and given a win for Union Santa Fe 34%. The goals: Leonel Mosevich 13' for Instituto Cordoba, Brahian Cuello 25' for Union Santa Fe, Cristian Tarragona 48' for Union Santa Fe, Misael Aguirre 74' for Union Santa Fe, Hernán De La Fuente 87' for Instituto Cordoba. Sent off: Cristian Tarragona (Union Santa Fe) 90', Matías Gallardo (Instituto Cordoba) 90+6'.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.