Le Havre
vs
Auxerre
Ligue 1 prediction
Our model says: Le Havre 1–0 Auxerre
The model makes it 38% Le Havre, 30% draw, 32% Auxerre — fair odds of 2.63, 3.33 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Le Havre 1.37, Auxerre 1.18.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published
Key facts
- Le Havre are bottom on 2 points from 5 games; Auxerre are 10th on 6 points from 5 games — Ligue 1.
- Le Havre have not won in their last 5, most recently a 2-3 defeat away to Toulouse.
- Auxerre have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Stade Brestois 29.
- Last 6 meetings: Le Havre 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 5 April 2026, ended Le Havre 1–1 Auxerre.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Le Havre vs Auxerre
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Le Havre at 38% here. Across 3,018 settled matches (as of 4 October 2026), 2,372 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Le Havre vs Auxerre
Le Havre
- L2-3away to Toulouse19 September 2026
- D0-0Angers12 September 2026
- L1-2Stade Brestois 295 September 2026
- D1-1away to Lyon29 August 2026
- L0-1Monaco23 August 2026
Auxerre
- W2-1Stade Brestois 2920 September 2026
- W1-0Nice12 September 2026
- L1-3away to Lyon4 September 2026
- L1-3Angers29 August 2026
- L2-5away to Lens22 August 2026
What these results say
- Le Havre did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Le Havre conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Auxerre scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Auxerre conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Auxerre had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Le Havre | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 2 |
| 10 | Auxerre | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Le Havre vs Auxerre
- 5 April 2026Le Havre 1–1 AuxerreLigue 1
- 26 October 2025Auxerre 0–1 Le HavreLigue 1
- 4 May 2025Auxerre 1–2 Le HavreLigue 1
- 1 September 2024Le Havre 3–1 AuxerreLigue 1
- 7 May 2022Le Havre 1–2 AuxerreLigue 2
- 21 December 2021Auxerre 2–3 Le HavreLigue 2
Leading scorers: Le Havre and Auxerre
Le Havre
- M. Samatta2 goals
Auxerre
- C. Archer3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Le Havre carry a model rating of 6.68 against 6.69 for Auxerre. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.37 goals for Le Havre and 1.18 for Auxerre. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Le Havre rate 0.69 in attack and 1.01 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Auxerre rate 0.85 and 1.18.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Auxerre, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,418 correct results out of 3,018 settled predictions (47%), with 294 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Le Havre the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Le Havre against 1.18 for Auxerre. Le Havre's attack/defence rating is 0.69/1.01 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.85/1.18 for Auxerre.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Le Havre at home · Auxerre away
League matches only, Ligue 1, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 1 matches this season: Le Havre 5, Auxerre 5.
Auxerre score most often in the 61–75 minute window (3 goals); Le Havre have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Le Havre
- at Marseille25 Oct · Ligue 1win 23%
- vs Paris Saint Germain30 Oct · Ligue 1win 21%
- vs Lorient8 Nov · Ligue 1win 34%
- at Estac Troyes20 Nov · Ligue 1win 36%
Auxerre
- vs Le Mans25 Oct · Ligue 1win 39%
- at Strasbourg1 Nov · Ligue 1win 26%
- vs Paris FC7 Nov · Ligue 1win 26%
- at Monaco21 Nov · Ligue 1win 20%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.