Angers
vs
Marseille
Ligue 1 prediction
Our model says: Angers 0–1 Marseille
The model makes it 29% Angers, 29% draw, 42% Marseille — fair odds of 3.45, 3.45 and 2.38. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Angers 1.12, Marseille 1.58.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- Angers are 7th on 7 points from 5 games; Marseille are 17th on 3 points from 5 games — Ligue 1.
- Angers have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 2-0 win at home to Estac Troyes.
- Marseille are without a win in 4, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Paris Saint Germain.
- Last 6 meetings: Marseille 4 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 17 January 2026, ended Angers 2–5 Marseille.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Angers vs Marseille
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Marseille at 42% here. Across 3,018 settled matches (as of 4 October 2026), 1,401 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Angers vs Marseille
Angers
- W2-0Estac Troyes19 September 2026
- D0-0away to Le Havre12 September 2026
- L1-2Rennes6 September 2026
- W3-1away to Auxerre29 August 2026
- L0-2Lille23 August 2026
Marseille
- L1-2Paris Saint Germain20 September 2026
- L0-1away to Rennes11 September 2026
- L2-3Paris FC6 September 2026
- L0-2away to Monaco30 August 2026
- W4-0Strasbourg21 August 2026
What these results say
- Marseille failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Marseille conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Angers | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 7 |
| 17 | Marseille | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Angers vs Marseille
- 17 January 2026Angers 2–5 MarseilleLigue 1
- 29 October 2025Marseille 2–2 AngersLigue 1
- 9 February 2025Angers 0–2 MarseilleLigue 1
- 4 October 2024Marseille 1–1 AngersLigue 1
- 14 May 2023Marseille 3–1 AngersLigue 1
- 30 September 2022Angers 0–3 MarseilleLigue 1
Leading scorers: Angers and Marseille
Angers
No player in Ligue 1's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
Marseille
- A. Gouiri4 goals1 assist
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Angers carry a model rating of 6.66 against 6.92 for Marseille. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.12 goals for Angers and 1.58 for Marseille. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Angers rate 0.68 in attack and 1.03 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Marseille rate 1.12 and 0.98.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Angers, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,418 correct results out of 3,018 settled predictions (47%), with 294 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Marseille the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Angers against 1.58 for Marseille. Angers's attack/defence rating is 0.68/1.03 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.12/0.98 for Marseille.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Angers at home · Marseille away
League matches only, Ligue 1, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 1 matches this season: Angers 5, Marseille 5.
Angers score most often in the 31–45 minute window (2 goals); Marseille have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Angers
- vs Lorient25 Oct · Ligue 1win 34%
- at Lyon31 Oct · Ligue 1win 21%
- vs Nice8 Nov · Ligue 1win 38%
- at Paris FC22 Nov · Ligue 1win 19%
Marseille
- at Sturm Graz22 Oct · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 41%
- vs Le Havre25 Oct · Ligue 1win 50%
- vs Toulouse1 Nov · Ligue 1win 48%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.