10 October 2026, 14:00 UTC

Turku PS vs FF Jaro Finnish Premier League prediction & result

Veritas Stadion, Turku
Referee: Joni Hyytia
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Turku PS 0-1 FF Jaro.

Before kick-off the model made it 55% Turku PS, 25% draw, 20% FF Jaro — fair odds of 1.82, 4.00 and 5.00.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Turku PS at 55%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Turku PS0%Draw6%FF Jaro94%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

31'
Fabian Ostigard Ness
56'
Jesper Svenungsen Skau
🔁Joel Ahenout: Luke Ivanovic
62'
🔁Samuel Anini Jr.out: Nils Veinbergs
62'
63'
⚽Jim Myrevikassist: Ville Vuorinen
Matej Hradecky
66'
75'
Gergő Kocsis
🔁Matej Hradeckyout: Atte Sihvonen
76'
80'
🔁Jim Myrevikout: Adam Vidjeskog
Atte Sihvonen
90+1'
Timo Zaal
90+1'
90+1'
🔁Ville Vuorinenout: Valde Löfs

Match stats — Turku PS vs FF Jaro

64%Possession36%
21Shots19
6On target4
7Corners9
2.85xG1.86

Goals against chances

Turku PS0 from 2.85 xGless than the chances were worth
FF Jaro1 from 1.86 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Turku PS 4-2-3-1
  • 1E. HenrikssonG
  • 20M. KauppilaD
  • 14M. HrádeckýD
  • 25Abdoulie TambaD
  • 3E. TurkkiD
  • 22T. ZaalM
  • 45Joel AhenM
  • 10M. KönkköläM
  • 28T. VakipartaM
  • 29A. MuzaciM
  • 41S. AniniF
Substitutes
  • 15C. AzongnitodeD
  • 26L. IkonenM
  • 9L. IvanovicF
  • 77T. KarkulowskiD
  • 35D. LauriG
  • 17A. SihvonenD
  • 24N. TaloD
  • 44N. VeinbergsF
  • 99K. VisserF
Coach: Ivan Piñol
FF Jaro 4-4-2
  • 1S. VitsG
  • 5A. BjonbäckD
  • 6J. BrunellD
  • 4M. OgungbaroD
  • 19F. Østigård NessD
  • 21J. MyrevikM
  • 25G. KocsisM
  • 7J. SkauM
  • 22K. HardénM
  • 23Jonathan LawsonF
  • 91V. VuorinenF
Substitutes
  • 24V. LofsM
  • 77A. SabriyeF
  • 12Joas SnellmanG
  • 20T. SoderstromD
  • 16A. VidjeskogM
  • 27J. VikstromF
  • 9L. ZetterströmF
  • 8Oliver Kass KawoM
  • 2F. KassD
Coach: Jens Karlsson

Form going into Turku PS vs FF Jaro

Turku PS

All competitions we cover

  • L0-3Ilves19 September 2026
  • L0-1away to Mariehamn12 September 2026
  • D0-0SJK8 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Gnistan31 August 2026
  • D0-0Inter Turku23 August 2026

FF Jaro

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1away to Lahti18 September 2026
  • D1-1SJK12 September 2026
  • L0-2away to Ilves8 September 2026
  • L0-2away to Mariehamn31 August 2026
  • L0-1AC Oulu22 August 2026

What these results say

  • Turku PS did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • Turku PS failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Turku PS had two goals or fewer.
  • FF Jaro did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • FF Jaro conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Every one of these 5 matches for FF Jaro had two goals or fewer.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Turku PS vs FF Jaro

  • 27 June 2026Turku PS 3–2 FF JaroFinnish Premier League
  • 2 May 2026FF Jaro 2–2 Turku PSFinnish Premier League
  • 3 October 2024Turku PS 3–0 FF JaroYkkösliiga
  • 2 June 2024FF Jaro 0–1 Turku PSYkkösliiga
  • 13 April 2024Turku PS 0–2 FF JaroYkkösliiga

The result against the call

FF Jaro won 1–0 at Turku PS. The model had leaned towards a win for Turku PS at 55% and given a win for FF Jaro 20%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goal: Jim Myrevik 63' for FF Jaro. On expected goals it finished 2.85–1.86.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Turku PS a 5.3% chance to finish top of the Championship Group: 8.2% after a win, under 1% after a draw, 0.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 0.0%, 5.3 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Finnish Premier League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Turku PS v FF Jaro has moved

First published on 26 Sep at 49% / 28% / 23% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 55% / 25% / 20%: the biggest move is Turku PS's chance of winning, up 6 points.

  1. Turku PS win55%▲ +6
  2. Draw25%▼ −3
  3. FF Jaro win20%▼ −3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.