Turku PS
vs
FF Jaro
Veikkausliiga prediction
Our model says: Turku PS 1–0 FF Jaro
The model makes it 49% Turku PS, 28% draw, 23% FF Jaro — fair odds of 2.04, 3.57 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (12%).
Expected goals: Turku PS 1.83, FF Jaro 0.87.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Turku PS vs FF Jaro
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Turku PS at 49% here. Across 2837 settled matches, 1308 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Turku PS vs FF Jaro
Turku PS
- L0-3Ilves19 September 2026
- L0-1away to Mariehamn12 September 2026
- D0-0SJK8 September 2026
- D1-1away to Gnistan31 August 2026
- D0-0Inter Turku23 August 2026
FF Jaro
- D1-1away to Lahti18 September 2026
- D1-1SJK12 September 2026
- L0-2away to Ilves8 September 2026
- L0-2away to Mariehamn31 August 2026
- L0-1AC Oulu22 August 2026
What these results say
- Turku PS did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Turku PS failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Turku PS had two goals or fewer.
- FF Jaro did not win any of these 5 matches.
- FF Jaro conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for FF Jaro had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Head-to-head: Turku PS vs FF Jaro
- 27 June 2026Turku PS 3–2 FF JaroVeikkausliiga
- 2 May 2026FF Jaro 2–2 Turku PSVeikkausliiga
- 3 October 2024Turku PS 3–0 FF JaroYkkösliiga
- 2 June 2024FF Jaro 0–1 Turku PSYkkösliiga
- 13 April 2024Turku PS 0–2 FF JaroYkkösliiga
- 3 February 2024Turku PS 0–3 FF JaroYkköscup
Leading scorers: Turku PS and FF Jaro
Turku PS
- A. Muzaci3 goals
FF Jaro
No leading scorers listed yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Turku PS carry a model rating of 6.16 against 5.86 for FF Jaro. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.83 goals for Turku PS and 0.87 for FF Jaro. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Turku PS rate 0.42 in attack and 1.71 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FF Jaro rate 0.36 and 2.61.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1326 correct results out of 2837 settled predictions (47%), with 271 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Turku PS the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Turku PS against 0.87 for FF Jaro. Turku PS's attack/defence rating is 0.42/1.71 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.36/2.61 for FF Jaro.