9 October 2026, 15:00 UTC

SJK vs Lahti Finnish Premier League prediction & result

OmaSp Stadion, Seinajoki
Referee: Amir Hajizadeh
Full time1 – 0

Final score: SJK 1-0 Lahti.

Before kick-off the model made it 36% SJK, 28% draw, 36% Lahti — fair odds of 2.78, 3.57 and 2.78.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

SJK at 36%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

SJK96%Draw4%Lahti0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽ Armaan Wilsonassist: Kelwin Souza do Nascimento
6'
Jeremiah Streng
34'
K. Nwanege
39'
62'
🔁Vaino Vehkonenout: José Müller
62'
🔁Aaron Lindholmout: Amir Belabid
62'
🔁Justus Ojanenout: Martim Ferreira
69'
🔁Otso Koskinenout: Erik Andersson
🔁Kelwin Souza do Nascimentoout: Elias Mastokangas
69'
79'
Nicolas Gianini Dantas
🔁 Armaan Wilsonout: Leon Vesterbacka
80'
86'
🔁Topias Inkinenout: Armend Kabashi
🔁Jeremiah Strengout: Aziz Cisse
87'
🔁Salim Giabo Yussifout: Souleimane Bagayogo
87'
89'
Momodou Sarr

Match stats — SJK vs Lahti

41%Possession59%
13Shots14
6On target3
3Corners9
1.86xG0.74

Goals against chances

SJK1 from 1.86 xGless than the chances were worth
Lahti0 from 0.74 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

SJK 5-3-2
  • 35J. ViitalaG
  • 6S. YussifD
  • 28K. NwanegeD
  • 2Facundo CostantiniD
  • 5O. VäistöD
  • 15E. MömmöD
  • 23A. WilsonM
  • 48A. TraoreM
  • 8A. BoströmM
  • 7KelwinF
  • 9J. StrengF
Substitutes
  • 51A. CisseF
  • 19E. MastokangasF
  • 31E. OnuohaM
  • 49E. UdomD
  • 43S. BagayogoD
  • 1R. PaunioG
  • 22L. VesterbackaM
Coach: J. Wiss
Lahti 4-3-3
  • 12A. HakalaG
  • 7D. HeikkinenD
  • 5NícolasD
  • 6V. VehkonenD
  • 25T. InkinenD
  • 8Tòfol MontielM
  • 18Y. CassubieM
  • 10O. KoskinenM
  • 77M. SarrF
  • 9A. LindholmF
  • 20J. OjanenF
Substitutes
  • 4J. MullerD
  • 41A. PaalanenF
  • 11Martim FerreiraF
  • 31O. MaukonenG
  • 17A. BelabidF
  • 14E. AnderssonM
  • 28A. KabashiM
Coach: Gonçalo Pereira

Form going into SJK vs Lahti

SJK

All competitions we cover

  • W2-1Mariehamn18 September 2026
  • D1-1away to FF Jaro12 September 2026
  • D0-0away to Turku PS8 September 2026
  • D0-0away to AC Oulu31 August 2026
  • L1-2Lahti21 August 2026

Lahti

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1FF Jaro18 September 2026
  • L1-3away to Ilves12 September 2026
  • W2-1Mariehamn8 September 2026
  • W1-0away to VPS31 August 2026
  • W2-1away to SJK21 August 2026

What these results say

  • SJK failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Lahti scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Lahti conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Lahti.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Head-to-head: SJK vs Lahti

  • 21 August 2026SJK 1–2 LahtiFinnish Premier League
  • 13 June 2026Lahti 2–3 SJKFinnish Premier League
  • 27 July 2024SJK 5–5 LahtiFinnish Premier League
  • 27 May 2024Lahti 0–4 SJKFinnish Premier League
  • 16 July 2023Lahti 1–1 SJKFinnish Premier League
  • 22 April 2023SJK 0–0 LahtiFinnish Premier League

Leading scorers: SJK and Lahti

SJK

No leading scorers listed yet.

Lahti

GoalsAssists

  • Martim Ferreira51
  • O. Koskinen32

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

SJK beat Lahti 1–0. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for SJK at 36%. The goal: Armaan Wilson 6' for SJK. On expected goals it finished 1.86–0.74.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Lahti a 59.3% chance to finish top of the Championship Group: 83.5% after a win, 50.8% after a draw, 40.6% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 40.6%, 18.7 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Finnish Premier League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.