SJK
vs
Lahti
Veikkausliiga prediction
Our model says: SJK 0–1 Lahti
The model makes it 35% SJK, 29% draw, 36% Lahti — fair odds of 2.86, 3.45 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: SJK 1.31, Lahti 1.34.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: SJK and Lahti are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: SJK vs Lahti
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Lahti at 36% here. Across 2823 settled matches, 2151 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into SJK vs Lahti
SJK
- W2-1Mariehamn18 September 2026
- D1-1away to FF Jaro12 September 2026
- D0-0away to Turku PS8 September 2026
- D0-0away to AC Oulu31 August 2026
- D0-0Lahti21 August 2026
Lahti
- D1-1FF Jaro18 September 2026
- L1-3away to Ilves12 September 2026
- W2-1Mariehamn8 September 2026
- W1-0away to VPS31 August 2026
- D0-0away to SJK21 August 2026
What these results say
- SJK went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- SJK failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for SJK had two goals or fewer.
- Lahti scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Head-to-head: SJK vs Lahti
- 21 August 2026SJK 1–2 LahtiVeikkausliiga
- 13 June 2026Lahti 2–3 SJKVeikkausliiga
- 27 July 2024SJK 5–5 LahtiVeikkausliiga
- 27 May 2024Lahti 0–4 SJKVeikkausliiga
- 16 July 2023Lahti 1–1 SJKVeikkausliiga
- 22 April 2023SJK 0–0 LahtiVeikkausliiga
Leading scorers: SJK and Lahti
SJK
- E. Mastokangas2 goals
Lahti
- Martim Ferreira4 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
SJK carry a model rating of 6.13 against 6.24 for Lahti. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.31 goals for SJK and 1.34 for Lahti. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
SJK rate 0.50 in attack and 2.11 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Lahti rate 0.45 and 1.57.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1320 correct results out of 2823 settled predictions (47%), with 270 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Lahti the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.31 expected goals for SJK against 1.34 for Lahti. SJK's attack/defence rating is 0.5/2.11 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.45/1.57 for Lahti.