VPS
vs
Gnistan
Veikkausliiga prediction
Our model says: VPS 2–1 Gnistan
The model makes it 37% VPS, 28% draw, 35% Gnistan — fair odds of 2.70, 3.57 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: VPS 1.61, Gnistan 1.51.
Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: VPS and Gnistan are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Key facts
- VPS are 5th on 36 points from 25 games; Gnistan are 4th on 41 points from 25 games — Veikkausliiga, Championship Group.
- VPS have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to KuPS.
- Gnistan are unbeaten in their last 5 (2 won), most recently a 1-1 draw at home to HJK Helsinki.
- Last 6 meetings: Gnistan 2 wins to 0, 4 draws; the most recent, 27 June 2026, ended Gnistan 1–1 VPS.
All Veikkausliiga predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: VPS vs Gnistan
Has the model earned this number?
It puts VPS at 37% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 2,313 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into VPS vs Gnistan
VPS
- L0-2KuPS19 September 2026
- L0-1away to Inter Turku14 September 2026
- W1-0AC Oulu8 September 2026
- L0-1Lahti31 August 2026
- W1-0away to Ilves22 August 2026
Gnistan
- D1-1HJK Helsinki18 September 2026
- W2-1away to AC Oulu12 September 2026
- D1-1KuPS8 September 2026
- D1-1Turku PS31 August 2026
- W3-2away to HJK Helsinki23 August 2026
What these results say
- Every one of these 5 matches for VPS had two goals or fewer.
- Gnistan went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Gnistan scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Gnistan conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Veikkausliiga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | VPS | 25 | 10 | 6 | 9 | 30 | 25 | +5 | 36 |
| 4 | Gnistan | 25 | 11 | 8 | 6 | 40 | 32 | +8 | 41 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: VPS vs Gnistan
- 27 June 2026Gnistan 1–1 VPSVeikkausliiga
- 9 May 2026VPS 1–1 GnistanVeikkausliiga
- 15 August 2025Gnistan 0–0 VPSVeikkausliiga
- 18 June 2025VPS 0–0 GnistanVeikkausliiga
- 23 October 2024VPS 0–1 GnistanVeikkausliiga
- 4 August 2024Gnistan 3–0 VPSVeikkausliiga
Leading scorers: VPS and Gnistan
VPS
- L. Smyth5 goals
Gnistan
- A. Akinyemi3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
VPS carry a model rating of 6.2 against 6.25 for Gnistan. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.61 goals for VPS and 1.51 for Gnistan. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
VPS rate 0.47 in attack and 1.75 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Gnistan rate 0.61 and 2.05.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Gnistan, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives VPS a 0% chance of the title and Gnistan 0.8%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives VPS the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.61 expected goals for VPS against 1.51 for Gnistan. VPS's attack/defence rating is 0.47/1.75 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.61/2.05 for Gnistan.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
VPS at home · Gnistan away
League matches only, Veikkausliiga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Veikkausliiga matches this season: VPS 25, Gnistan 25.
Gnistan score most often in the 61–75 minute window (8 goals); VPS have let in 6 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
VPS
- at KuPS18 Oct · Veikkausliigawin 24%
- vs Inter Turku24 Oct · Veikkausliigawin 28%
- at AC Oulu28 Oct · Veikkausliigawin 37%
- vs HJK Helsinki2 Nov · Veikkausliigawin 34%
Gnistan
- at HJK Helsinki17 Oct · Veikkausliigawin 30%
- vs AC Oulu24 Oct · Veikkausliigawin 47%
- at KuPS29 Oct · Veikkausliigawin 26%
- at Inter Turku2 Nov · Veikkausliigawin 24%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.