Ujpest
vs
Zalaegerszegi TE
NB I prediction
Our model says: Ujpest 2–0 Zalaegerszegi TE
The model makes it 56% Ujpest, 25% draw, 19% Zalaegerszegi TE — fair odds of 1.79, 4.00 and 5.26. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (11%).
Expected goals: Ujpest 2.32, Zalaegerszegi TE 0.87.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%, under 2.5: 38%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Ujpest vs Zalaegerszegi TE
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 9 | 9 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 9 | 7 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 5 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 5 | 2 | 2 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Ujpest wins, grey are draws, red are Zalaegerszegi TE wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Ujpest at 56% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 630 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Ujpest vs Zalaegerszegi TE
Ujpest
- D2-2away to Ferencvarosi TC6 September 2026
- W3-1Vasas29 August 2026
- L0-2away to Paks21 August 2026
- D1-1MTK Budapest15 August 2026
- W4-2away to Kisvarda FC8 August 2026
Zalaegerszegi TE
- W1-0Puskas Academy6 September 2026
- L0-1away to Budapest Honved29 August 2026
- L0-3away to Gyori ETO FC23 August 2026
- L0-1Ferencvarosi TC17 August 2026
- L0-5away to Vasas8 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
NB I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Ujpest | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 12 | +3 | 11 |
| 12 | Zalaegerszegi TE | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 15 | -9 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Ujpest vs Zalaegerszegi TE
- 21 March 2026Zalaegerszegi TE 2–0 UjpestNB I
- 7 December 2025Ujpest 0–2 Zalaegerszegi TENB I
- 23 August 2025Zalaegerszegi TE 1–4 UjpestNB I
- 11 May 2025Zalaegerszegi TE 0–0 UjpestNB I
- 16 February 2025Ujpest 1–2 Zalaegerszegi TENB I
- 6 October 2024Zalaegerszegi TE 0–2 UjpestNB I
Leading scorers: Ujpest and Zalaegerszegi TE
Ujpest
- A. Matko4 goals2 assists
- E. Amenyido3 goals3 assists
- G. Vlijter2 goals1 assists
Zalaegerszegi TE
- Calderón2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Ujpest carry a model rating of 6.63 against 6.28 for Zalaegerszegi TE. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.32 goals for Ujpest and 0.87 for Zalaegerszegi TE. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Ujpest rate 0.95 in attack and 1.54 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Zalaegerszegi TE rate 0.47 and 1.50.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Ujpest a 26.3% chance of the title and Zalaegerszegi TE 0.1%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Ujpest the highest probability at 56%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.32 expected goals for Ujpest against 0.87 for Zalaegerszegi TE. Ujpest's attack/defence rating is 0.95/1.54 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.47/1.5 for Zalaegerszegi TE.