TSV Hartberg vs Austria Lustenau Bundesliga prediction & result
Final score: TSV Hartberg 4-3 Austria Lustenau.
Before kick-off the model made it 50% TSV Hartberg, 26% draw, 24% Austria Lustenau — fair odds of 2.00, 3.85 and 4.17.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Austrian Bundesliga predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
TSV Hartberg at 50%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 7 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — TSV Hartberg vs Austria Lustenau
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 91Á. PécsiG
- 16M. DalpiazD
- 27K. SchoppD
- 14P. KomposchD
- 12M. PfeiferD
- 11J. DrewM
- 5Y. DiarraM
- 4B. MarkušM
- 95Nikolaus FeldhoferM
- 7A. GattermayerF
- 22M. HoffmanF
- 6Habib CoulibalyD
- 23T. KainzM
- 17J. KarnerM
- 77D. KorherrF
- 10O. LukicM
- 21L. MarićG
- 49A. RadulovićF
- 19L. SpendlhoferD
- 70C. OnuohaF
- 27D. SchierlG
- 7F. GmeinerD
- 18R. VoisineD
- 29N. PertlwieserD
- 3Danilo SoaresD
- 8D. KacuriM
- 11D. WeixelbraunM
- 20L. AfrifaM
- 17A. GashiM
- 24S. DiarraM
- 39A. VerinacF
- 21AnilsonD
- 14P. BenjaminF
- 30P. BöhmG
- 10Alieu ConatehF
- 23P. GrabherM
- 26L. IbertsbergerD
- 61H. IsmailcebiogluM
- 9L. JastremskiF
- 31M. MaakD
Form going into TSV Hartberg vs Austria Lustenau
TSV Hartberg
All competitions we cover
- D3-3Lask Linz20 September 2026
- D2-2away to WSG Wattens13 September 2026
- W3-2Ried30 August 2026
- W2-1away to SCR Altach22 August 2026
- L0-2Austria Vienna16 August 2026
Austria Lustenau
All competitions we cover
- W2-0SCR Altach19 September 2026
- L1-2away to Austria Vienna13 September 2026
- L0-4WSG Wattens28 August 2026
- D1-1away to Sturm Graz22 August 2026
- W2-1Wolfsberger AC15 August 2026
What these results say
- TSV Hartberg conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- TSV Hartberg scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for TSV Hartberg had three goals or more.
- Austria Lustenau scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Austria Lustenau conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Austria Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | TSV Hartberg | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 23 | 19 | +4 | 20 |
| 8 | Austria Lustenau | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 15 | 30 | -15 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: TSV Hartberg vs Austria Lustenau
- 29 October 2024Austria Lustenau 0–3 TSV HartbergCup
- 29 October 2023Austria Lustenau 0–4 TSV HartbergBundesliga
- 29 July 2023TSV Hartberg 2–2 Austria LustenauBundesliga
- 2 June 2023Austria Lustenau 5–1 TSV HartbergBundesliga
- 31 March 2023TSV Hartberg 0–1 Austria LustenauBundesliga
Leading scorers: TSV Hartberg and Austria Lustenau
TSV Hartberg
GoalsAssists
- C. Hoffmann61
- M. Hoffman40
Austria Lustenau
GoalsAssists
- D. Weixelbraun61
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
TSV Hartberg beat Austria Lustenau 4–3. The model had made a win for TSV Hartberg its most likely outcome, at 50%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Marco Hoffmann 8' for TSV Hartberg, Albin Gashi 11' for Austria Lustenau, Dominik Weixelbraun 43' for Austria Lustenau, Marco Hoffmann 55' for TSV Hartberg, Nikolaus Feldhofer 60' for TSV Hartberg, Marco Hoffmann 86' for TSV Hartberg, Dominik Weixelbraun 90+3' for Austria Lustenau. On expected goals it finished 3.64–1.40.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave TSV Hartberg a 14.7% chance to finish in the bottom three: 9.3% after a win, 16.6% after a draw, 23.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 9.3%, 5.4 points lower than before the match.
For Austria Lustenau the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 49.8% going in: 33.5% after a win, 48.7% after a draw, 56.6% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 56.6%, 6.8 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Bundesliga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on TSV Hartberg v Austria Lustenau has moved
First published on 27 Sep at 46% / 28% / 26% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 50% / 26% / 24%: the biggest move is TSV Hartberg's chance of winning, up 4 points.
- TSV Hartberg win50%▲ +4
- Draw26%▼ −2
- Austria Lustenau win24%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.