TSV Hartberg
vs
Austria Lustenau
Bundesliga prediction
Our model says: TSV Hartberg 2–1 Austria Lustenau
The model makes it 46% TSV Hartberg, 28% draw, 26% Austria Lustenau — fair odds of 2.17, 3.57 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: TSV Hartberg 1.81, Austria Lustenau 1.06.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: TSV Hartberg vs Austria Lustenau
Has the model earned this number?
It puts TSV Hartberg at 46% here. Across 2888 settled matches, 1330 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into TSV Hartberg vs Austria Lustenau
TSV Hartberg
- D3-3Lask Linz20 September 2026
- D2-2away to WSG Wattens13 September 2026
- W3-2Ried30 August 2026
- W2-1away to SCR Altach22 August 2026
- L0-2Austria Vienna16 August 2026
Austria Lustenau
- W2-0SCR Altach19 September 2026
- L1-2away to Austria Vienna13 September 2026
- L0-4WSG Wattens28 August 2026
- D1-1away to Sturm Graz22 August 2026
- W2-1Wolfsberger AC15 August 2026
What these results say
- TSV Hartberg conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- TSV Hartberg scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for TSV Hartberg had three goals or more.
- Austria Lustenau scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Austria Lustenau conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | TSV Hartberg | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 8 |
| 8 | Austria Lustenau | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: TSV Hartberg vs Austria Lustenau
- 29 October 2024Austria Lustenau 0–3 TSV HartbergCup
- 29 October 2023Austria Lustenau 0–4 TSV HartbergBundesliga
- 29 July 2023TSV Hartberg 2–2 Austria LustenauBundesliga
- 2 June 2023Austria Lustenau 5–1 TSV HartbergBundesliga
- 31 March 2023TSV Hartberg 0–1 Austria LustenauBundesliga
- 5 November 2022TSV Hartberg 1–1 Austria LustenauBundesliga
Leading scorers: TSV Hartberg and Austria Lustenau
TSV Hartberg
- A. Radulović2 goals1 assists
Austria Lustenau
- D. Weixelbraun4 goals1 assists
- A. Verinac3 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
TSV Hartberg carry a model rating of 6.34 against 6.19 for Austria Lustenau. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.81 goals for TSV Hartberg and 1.06 for Austria Lustenau. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
TSV Hartberg rate 0.59 in attack and 1.65 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Austria Lustenau rate 0.50 and 1.89.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1344 correct results out of 2888 settled predictions (47%), with 275 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives TSV Hartberg the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.81 expected goals for TSV Hartberg against 1.06 for Austria Lustenau. TSV Hartberg's attack/defence rating is 0.59/1.65 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.5/1.89 for Austria Lustenau.