Southampton
vs
Portsmouth
Championship prediction
Our model says: Southampton 2–0 Portsmouth
The model makes it 55% Southampton, 25% draw, 20% Portsmouth — fair odds of 1.82, 4.00 and 5.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (10%).
Expected goals: Southampton 2.28, Portsmouth 0.95.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 63%, under 2.5: 37%.
Model confidence: High.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Southampton vs Portsmouth
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Southampton at 55% here. Across 2888 settled matches, 682 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Southampton vs Portsmouth
Southampton
- L1-2away to Wrexham19 September 2026
- W4-1Bristol City12 September 2026
- W3-1Swansea8 September 2026
- D1-1away to Lincoln5 September 2026
- D1-1away to Birmingham1 September 2026
Portsmouth
- D2-2Blackburn19 September 2026
- D0-0away to Charlton12 September 2026
- W2-0Cardiff5 September 2026
- L0-2Derby1 September 2026
- L1-2away to Bristol City29 August 2026
What these results say
- Southampton scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Southampton conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Southampton.
- Portsmouth failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Southampton | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 10 | +9 | 10 |
| 19 | Portsmouth | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Southampton vs Portsmouth
- 25 January 2026Portsmouth 1–1 SouthamptonChampionship
- 14 September 2025Southampton 0–0 PortsmouthChampionship
- 24 September 2019Portsmouth 0–4 SouthamptonLeague Cup
- 7 April 2012Southampton 2–2 PortsmouthChampionship
- 18 December 2011Portsmouth 1–1 SouthamptonChampionship
Leading scorers: Southampton and Portsmouth
Southampton
- C. Larin7 goals
- F. Azaz3 goals4 assists
Portsmouth
No player in Championship's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Southampton carry a model rating of 6.79 against 6.47 for Portsmouth. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.28 goals for Southampton and 0.95 for Portsmouth. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Southampton rate 1.05 in attack and 1.20 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Portsmouth rate 0.67 and 1.44.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Southampton a 14.5% chance of the title and Portsmouth 0.2%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1344 correct results out of 2888 settled predictions (47%), with 275 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Southampton the highest probability at 55%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.28 expected goals for Southampton against 0.95 for Portsmouth. Southampton's attack/defence rating is 1.05/1.2 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.67/1.44 for Portsmouth.