Southampton vs Portsmouth Championship prediction & result
Final score: Southampton 1-0 Portsmouth.
Before kick-off the model made it 61% Southampton, 22% draw, 17% Portsmouth — fair odds of 1.64, 4.55 and 5.88.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Championship predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Southampton at 61%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Southampton vs Portsmouth
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Daniel PeretzG
- 14J. BreeD
- 5J. StephensD
- 13K. SchlotterbeckD
- 3R. ManningD
- 4F. DownesM
- 30J. Ward-ProwseM
- 26Cameron BraggM
- 10F. AzazM
- 7Léo ScienzaM
- 9C. LarinF
- 28D. MubamaF
- 27K. MatsukiM
- 25G. LongG
- 8C. JanderM
- 18T. FellowsM
- 23S. EdozieM
- 11L. DobbinF
- 34WelingtonD
- 15N. Wood-GordonD
- 1N. SchmidG
- 22Z. SwansonD
- 5R. PooleD
- 55M. DiaD
- 16J. MeghomaD
- 7M. PackM
- 38E. AdamsM
- 25R. Kavuma McQueenM
- 11A. KamaraM
- 17T. ShadeM
- 9C. BishopF
- 19R. SheinM
- 21K. AndersonM
- 27O. BaileyM
- 31D. BielicaG
- 24T. DevlinM
- 32E. KennyM
- 29M. MilovanovićF
- 37I. MohamedM
- 10A. SegecicM
Form going into Southampton vs Portsmouth
Southampton
All competitions we cover
- L1-2away to Wrexham19 September 2026
- W4-1Bristol City12 September 2026
- W3-1Swansea8 September 2026
- D1-1away to Lincoln5 September 2026
- D1-1away to Birmingham1 September 2026
Portsmouth
All competitions we cover
- D2-2Blackburn19 September 2026
- D0-0away to Charlton12 September 2026
- W2-0Cardiff5 September 2026
- L0-2Derby1 September 2026
- L1-2away to Bristol City29 August 2026
What these results say
- Southampton scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Southampton conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Southampton.
- Portsmouth failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Southampton | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 29 | 15 | +14 | 24 |
| 11 | Portsmouth | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 20 | 18 | +2 | 22 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Southampton vs Portsmouth
- 25 January 2026Portsmouth 1–1 SouthamptonChampionship
- 14 September 2025Southampton 0–0 PortsmouthChampionship
- 24 September 2019Portsmouth 0–4 SouthamptonLeague Cup
- 7 April 2012Southampton 2–2 PortsmouthChampionship
- 18 December 2011Portsmouth 1–1 SouthamptonChampionship
Leading scorers: Southampton and Portsmouth
Southampton
GoalsAssists
- C. Larin70
Portsmouth
No player in Championship's leading scorers — 20 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Southampton beat Portsmouth 1–0. The model had made a win for Southampton its most likely outcome, at 61%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goal: James Bree 20' for Southampton. Sent off: Cameron Bragg (Southampton) 44'. On expected goals it finished 1.35–0.81.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Southampton a 52.6% chance to finish in the top four: 55.0% after a win, 49.8% after a draw, 45.2% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 55.0%, 2.4 points higher than before the match.
For Portsmouth the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 25.1% going in: 19.0% after a win, 22.7% after a draw, 26.9% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 26.9%, 1.8 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Championship season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Southampton v Portsmouth has moved
First published on 27 Sep at 55% / 25% / 20% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 61% / 22% / 17%: the biggest move is Southampton's chance of winning, up 6 points.
- Southampton win61%▲ +6
- Draw22%▼ −3
- Portsmouth win17%▼ −3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.