Lask Linz
vs
Rapid Vienna
Bundesliga prediction
Our model says: Lask Linz 2–1 Rapid Vienna
The model makes it 43% Lask Linz, 26% draw, 31% Rapid Vienna — fair odds of 2.33, 3.85 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Lask Linz 2.01, Rapid Vienna 1.51.
Both teams to score: 68%. Over 2.5 goals: 68%, under 2.5: 32%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Lask Linz at 43% here. Across 2888 settled matches, 1330 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna
Lask Linz
- D3-3away to TSV Hartberg20 September 2026
- L1-2away to Sturm Graz13 September 2026
- W3-1away to Wolfsberger AC1 September 2026
- W3-0SCR Altach29 August 2026
- W4-1Ried14 August 2026
Rapid Vienna
- W3-0WSG Wattens18 September 2026
- W3-0away to Wolfsberger AC12 September 2026
- L1-5away to Red Bull Salzburg2 September 2026
- W3-1Sturm Graz30 August 2026
- W8-0Grazer AK16 August 2026
What these results say
- Lask Linz scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Lask Linz had three goals or more.
- Lask Linz conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Rapid Vienna scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Rapid Vienna had three goals or more.
- Rapid Vienna won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Lask Linz | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 7 | +12 | 16 |
| 1 | Rapid Vienna | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 7 | +14 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna
- 4 May 2026Lask Linz 3–1 Rapid ViennaBundesliga
- 22 March 2026Rapid Vienna 4–2 Lask LinzBundesliga
- 30 November 2025Lask Linz 3–0 Rapid ViennaBundesliga
- 19 October 2025Rapid Vienna 0–2 Lask LinzBundesliga
- 1 June 2025Rapid Vienna 3–0 Lask LinzBundesliga
- 29 May 2025Lask Linz 3–1 Rapid ViennaBundesliga
Leading scorers: Lask Linz and Rapid Vienna
Lask Linz
- C. Lang5 goals
- S. Adeniran4 goals1 assists
- M. Usor2 goals3 assists
Rapid Vienna
- T. Adamsen4 goals2 assists
- E. Kara3 goals
- P. Dahl3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Lask Linz carry a model rating of 6.63 against 6.6 for Rapid Vienna. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.01 goals for Lask Linz and 1.51 for Rapid Vienna. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Lask Linz rate 0.91 in attack and 1.43 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Rapid Vienna rate 0.82 and 1.36.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Rapid Vienna, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Lask Linz a 8.2% chance of the title and Rapid Vienna 45.9%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1344 correct results out of 2888 settled predictions (47%), with 275 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Lask Linz the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.01 expected goals for Lask Linz against 1.51 for Rapid Vienna. Lask Linz's attack/defence rating is 0.91/1.43 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.82/1.36 for Rapid Vienna.