Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna Bundesliga prediction & result
Final score: Lask Linz 0-2 Rapid Vienna.
Before kick-off the model made it 46% Lask Linz, 24% draw, 30% Rapid Vienna — fair odds of 2.17, 4.17 and 3.33.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Austrian Bundesliga predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Lask Linz at 46%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1L. JungwirthG
- 20K. JørgensenD
- 4X. MbuyambaD
- 43AlemãoD
- 16A. AndradeD
- 2G. BelloD
- 10R. LjubičićM
- 6M. BogardeM
- 30S. HorvathM
- 11S. KalajdzicF
- 27C. LangF
- 9K. DaněkM
- 18A. SchöpfM
- 25Y. DibangoD
- 3M. FreckletonD
- 29F. FleckerF
- 33T. SchützenauerG
- 8M. UsorF
- 23Daniel ElfadliM
- 7S. AdeniranF
- 1N. HedlG
- 77B. BollaD
- 55N. CvetkovićD
- 6S. Raux-YaoD
- 38J. HornD
- 18M. SeidlM
- 30N. BajliczM
- 22Y. DemirM
- 8T. AdamsenM
- 10P. DahlM
- 9E. KaraF
- 61F. DemirD
- 25P. GartlerG
- 71C. M'BuyiF
- 2Eaden RokaD
- 21L. SchaubM
- 7M. TilioF
- 15Nikolaus WurmbrandF
- 20K. AhoussouD
- 43M. HaïdaraF
Form going into Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna
Lask Linz
All competitions we cover
- D3-3away to TSV Hartberg20 September 2026
- L1-2away to Sturm Graz13 September 2026
- L0-1away to AEK Athens FC8 September 2026
- W3-1away to Wolfsberger AC1 September 2026
- W3-0SCR Altach29 August 2026
Rapid Vienna
All competitions we cover
- W3-0WSG Wattens18 September 2026
- W3-0away to Wolfsberger AC12 September 2026
- L1-5away to Red Bull Salzburg2 September 2026
- W3-1Sturm Graz30 August 2026
- D1-1Heart of Midlothian26 August 2026
What these results say
- Lask Linz scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Lask Linz conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Lask Linz had three goals or more.
- Rapid Vienna scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Rapid Vienna had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Austria Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Lask Linz | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 30 | 15 | +15 | 25 |
| 1 | Rapid Vienna | 12 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 39 | 9 | +30 | 33 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna
- 4 May 2026Lask Linz 3–1 Rapid ViennaBundesliga
- 22 March 2026Rapid Vienna 4–2 Lask LinzBundesliga
- 30 November 2025Lask Linz 3–0 Rapid ViennaBundesliga
- 19 October 2025Rapid Vienna 0–2 Lask LinzBundesliga
- 1 June 2025Rapid Vienna 3–0 Lask LinzBundesliga
Leading scorers: Lask Linz and Rapid Vienna
Lask Linz
GoalsAssists
- C. Lang80
- S. Adeniran62
- M. Usor33
Rapid Vienna
GoalsAssists
- E. Kara71
- P. Dahl71
- T. Adamsen55
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Rapid Vienna won 2–0 at Lask Linz. The model had leaned towards a win for Lask Linz at 46% and given a win for Rapid Vienna 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Ercan Kara 58' for Rapid Vienna, Claudy M'Buyi 82' for Rapid Vienna. On expected goals it finished 1.19–2.39.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Lask Linz a 27.7% chance to finish top of the regular season: 36.1% after a win, 22.9% after a draw, 15.3% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 15.3%, 12.4 points lower than before the match.
For Rapid Vienna the question was the chance to finish top of the regular season, 33.7% going in: 47.9% after a win, 35.4% after a draw, 24.4% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 47.9%, 14.2 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Bundesliga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Lask Linz v Rapid Vienna has moved
First published on 27 Sep at 43% / 26% / 31% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 46% / 24% / 30%: the biggest move is Lask Linz's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- Lask Linz win46%▲ +3
- Draw24%▼ −2
- Rapid Vienna win30%▼ −1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.