11 October 2026, 16:30 UTC

Rubin vs Dynamo Premier League prediction & result

Ak Bars Arena, Kazan
Referee: Ivan Abrosimov
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Rubin 0-1 Dynamo.

Before kick-off the model made it 31% Rubin, 29% draw, 40% Dynamo — fair odds of 3.23, 3.45 and 2.50.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Dynamo at 40%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

30'
⚽Jakhongir Urozov (OG)
•Ilya Samoshnikov
36'
Ilya Samoshnikov
37'
41'
Juan Caceres
45'
🔁Juan Caceresout: Leon Zaydenzal
Ignacio Saavedra
55'
🔁Ignacio Saavedraout: Ugochukwu Iwu
61'
🔁Nikita Lobovout: Ruslan Bezrukov
61'
64'
🔁Arthur Gomesout: Viktor Okishor
64'
🔁Yaroslav Gladyshevout: Josue Casimir
🔁Nazmi Gripshiout: Ulvi Babaev
78'
🔁Jacques Siweout: Eddie Salcedo
79'
82'
Rubens
82'
•Rubens
86'
🔁Bitelloout: Dmitriy Skopintsev
86'
🔁Konstantin Tyukavinout: Ivan Sergeev
🔁Ilya Rozhkovout: Daniil Kuznetsov
86'
Jakhongir Urozov
90+4'

Match stats — Rubin vs Dynamo

41%Possession59%
12Shots9
3On target1
3Corners3
0.87xG0.63

Goals against chances

Rubin0 from 0.87 xGless than the chances were worth
Dynamo1 from 0.63 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Rubin 5-4-1
  • 38E. StaverG
  • 12A. ArroyoD
  • 98N. LobovD
  • 5I. VujačićD
  • 13J. UrozovD
  • 51I. RozhkovD
  • 71I. SamoshnikovM
  • 22V. HodžaM
  • 14I. SaavedraM
  • 11N. GripshiM
  • 43J. SiweF
Substitutes
  • 23R. BezrukovD
  • 2E. TeslenkoD
  • 7U. BabaevF
  • 27A. GritsaenkoD
  • 18M. IgnatjevD
  • 6U. IwuM
  • 8B. JočićM
  • 86N. KoretsG
  • 44D. KuznetsovM
Coach: Franc Artiga
Dynamo 4-2-3-1
  • 99A. LunevG
  • 4J. CáceresD
  • 2N. MarichalD
  • 57David RicardoD
  • 8RubensD
  • 15D. GlebovM
  • 74D. FominM
  • 91Y. GladyshevM
  • 10BitelloM
  • 11Arthur GomesM
  • 70K. TyukavinF
Substitutes
  • 28M. GutiérrezF
  • 50A. KutitskiyM
  • 31I. LeshchukG
  • 60T. MarinkinM
  • 21A. MiranchukM
  • 88V. OkishorM
  • 1K. RasulovG
  • 33I. SergeevF
  • 7D. SkopintsevD
Coach: S. Schwarz

Form going into Rubin vs Dynamo

Rubin

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1away to Rodina Moskva16 September 2026
  • D1-1away to CSKA Moscow12 September 2026
  • D1-1Akhmat7 September 2026
  • W3-1Dinamo Makhachkala30 August 2026
  • D1-1away to Baltika24 August 2026

Dynamo

All competitions we cover

  • W3-0away to FC Rostov17 September 2026
  • W1-0FC Orenburg12 September 2026
  • W2-1Spartak Moscow6 September 2026
  • W1-0away to Lokomotiv29 August 2026
  • W3-1Rodina Moskva23 August 2026

What these results say

  • Rubin went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • Rubin scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Rubin conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Dynamo won every one of these 5 matches.
  • Dynamo scored in every one of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Russia Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8Rubin144641418-418
2Dynamo1410132313+1031

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Rubin vs Dynamo

  • 22 April 2026Dynamo 0–1 RubinPremier League
  • 1 November 2025Rubin 0–0 DynamoPremier League
  • 20 April 2025Dynamo 3–1 RubinPremier League
  • 20 October 2024Rubin 0–4 DynamoPremier League
  • 4 December 2023Dinamo Moscow 1–0 RubinPremier League

Leading scorers: Rubin and Dynamo

Rubin

No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.

Dynamo

GoalsAssists

  • K. Tyukavin71
  • V. Okishor32

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Dynamo won 1–0 at Rubin. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Dynamo at 40%. The goal: Jakhongir Urozov (own goal) 30' for Dynamo. Sent off: Ilya Samoshnikov (Rubin) 37', Rubens (Dynamo) 82'. On expected goals it finished 0.87–0.63.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Rubin a 7.3% chance to finish in the top four: 11.1% after a win, 5.5% after a draw, 4.4% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 4.4%, 2.9 points lower than before the match.

For Dynamo the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 76.7% going in: 81.9% after a win, 76.6% after a draw, 71.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 81.9%, 5.2 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Premier League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Rubin v Dynamo has moved

First published on 27 Sep at 33% / 30% / 37% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 31% / 29% / 40%: the biggest move is Dynamo's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Rubin win31%▼ −2
  2. Draw29%▼ −1
  3. Dynamo win40%▲ +3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.