Rubin
vs
Dynamo
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Rubin 0–1 Dynamo
The model makes it 33% Rubin, 30% draw, 37% Dynamo — fair odds of 3.03, 3.33 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Rubin 1.16, Dynamo 1.34.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%, under 2.5: 54%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Rubin vs Dynamo
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Dynamo at 37% here. Across 2888 settled matches, 2241 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Rubin vs Dynamo
Rubin
- D1-1away to Rodina Moskva16 September 2026
- D1-1away to CSKA Moscow12 September 2026
- D1-1Akhmat7 September 2026
- W3-1Dinamo Makhachkala30 August 2026
- D1-1away to Baltika24 August 2026
Dynamo
- W3-0away to FC Rostov17 September 2026
- W1-0FC Orenburg12 September 2026
- W2-1Spartak Moscow6 September 2026
- W1-0away to Lokomotiv29 August 2026
- W3-1Rodina Moskva23 August 2026
What these results say
- Rubin went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Rubin scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Rubin conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Dynamo won every one of these 5 matches.
- Dynamo scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Rubin | 9 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 12 |
| 2 | Dynamo | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Rubin vs Dynamo
- 22 April 2026Dynamo 0–1 RubinPremier League
- 1 November 2025Rubin 0–0 DynamoPremier League
- 20 April 2025Dynamo 3–1 RubinPremier League
- 20 October 2024Rubin 0–4 DynamoPremier League
- 4 December 2023Dinamo Moscow 1–0 RubinPremier League
- 26 August 2023Rubin 2–2 Dinamo MoscowPremier League
Leading scorers: Rubin and Dynamo
Rubin
- A. Arroyo3 goals1 assists
- J. Siwe3 goals
Dynamo
- K. Tyukavin4 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Rubin carry a model rating of 6.3 against 6.47 for Dynamo. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.16 goals for Rubin and 1.34 for Dynamo. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Rubin rate 0.50 in attack and 1.53 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Dynamo rate 0.71 and 1.51.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Rubin a 0.5% chance of the title and Dynamo 16.7%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1344 correct results out of 2888 settled predictions (47%), with 275 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Dynamo the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Rubin against 1.34 for Dynamo. Rubin's attack/defence rating is 0.5/1.53 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.71/1.51 for Dynamo.