Pakhtakor
vs
Al-Qadisiyah FC
AFC Champions League Elite prediction
Our model says: Pakhtakor 1–2 Al-Qadisiyah FC
The model makes it 21% Pakhtakor, 25% draw, 54% Al-Qadisiyah FC — fair odds of 4.76, 4.00 and 1.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (10%).
Expected goals: Pakhtakor 1.10, Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.44.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 69%, under 2.5: 31%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Pakhtakor are 9th on 1 point from 1 game; Al-Qadisiyah FC are 3rd on 3 points from 1 game — AFC Champions League Elite, West Region.
- Al-Qadisiyah FC are unbeaten in their last 5 (4 won), most recently a 3-3 draw at home to Al-Ettifaq.
All AFC Champions League Elite predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Pakhtakor vs Al-Qadisiyah FC
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Al-Qadisiyah FC at 54% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 691 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Pakhtakor vs Al-Qadisiyah FC
Pakhtakor
- D1-1away to Al-Ahli Jeddah14 September 2026
- W3-0Al Hussein11 August 2026
Al-Qadisiyah FC
- W2-1Al-Wasl FC14 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
AFC Champions League Elite table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Pakhtakor | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 3 | Al-Qadisiyah FC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
A clear gap in the ratings
Pakhtakor carry a model rating of 6.29 against 6.9 for Al-Qadisiyah FC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.10 goals for Pakhtakor and 2.44 for Al-Qadisiyah FC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Pakhtakor rate 0.55 in attack and 1.69 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Al-Qadisiyah FC rate 1.19 and 1.09.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Al-Qadisiyah FC the highest probability at 54%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Pakhtakor against 2.44 for Al-Qadisiyah FC. Pakhtakor's attack/defence rating is 0.55/1.69 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.19/1.09 for Al-Qadisiyah FC.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Pakhtakor
- at Al Quwa Al Jawiya26 Oct · AFC Champions League Elitewin 37%
- vs Al-Nassr2 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 21%
- at Al-Ittihad23 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 16%
- vs Tractor Sazi7 Dec · AFC Champions League Elitewin 41%
- vs Esteghlal FC8 Feb · AFC Champions League Elitewin 36%
Al-Qadisiyah FC
- vs Abha16 Oct · Pro Leaguewin 64%
- at Al Taawon20 Oct · Pro Leaguewin 53%
- vs Al-Hilal23 Oct · Pro Leaguewin 32%
- vs Al Sadd26 Oct · AFC Champions League Elitewin 63%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.