Smouha SC
vs
Ghazl El Mehalla
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Smouha SC 1–0 Ghazl El Mehalla
The model makes it 36% Smouha SC, 35% draw, 29% Ghazl El Mehalla — fair odds of 2.78, 2.86 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Smouha SC 0.93, Ghazl El Mehalla 0.76.
Both teams to score: 33%. Over 2.5 goals: 24%, under 2.5: 76%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Smouha SC are 16th on 4 points from 5 games; Ghazl El Mehalla are bottom on 1 point from 5 games — Premier League.
- Smouha SC have won 1 of their last 5, most recently a 1-0 win away to El Geish.
- Ghazl El Mehalla have not won in their last 5, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Zamalek SC.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 27 November 2025, ended Smouha SC 3–1 Ghazl El Mehalla.
All Egyptian Premier League predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Smouha SC vs Ghazl El Mehalla
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Smouha SC at 36% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 2,313 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Smouha SC vs Ghazl El Mehalla
Smouha SC
- W1-0away to El Geish14 September 2026
- L0-2Ceramica Cleopatra8 September 2026
- L0-1away to Al Ahly3 September 2026
- D0-0Asyut Petrol26 August 2026
- L0-1away to Al Masry22 August 2026
Ghazl El Mehalla
- L0-1Zamalek SC16 September 2026
- L1-3away to National Bank of Egypt7 September 2026
- D0-0Enppi1 September 2026
- L0-2away to Future FC27 August 2026
- L0-3Pyramids FC22 August 2026
What these results say
- Every one of these 5 matches for Smouha SC had two goals or fewer.
- Smouha SC failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Smouha SC failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Ghazl El Mehalla did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Ghazl El Mehalla failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Ghazl El Mehalla conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Smouha SC | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 4 |
| 20 | Ghazl El Mehalla | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 9 | -8 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Smouha SC vs Ghazl El Mehalla
- 27 November 2025Smouha SC 3–1 Ghazl El MehallaCup
- 16 August 2025Ghazl El Mehalla 0–0 Smouha SCPremier League
- 11 April 2025Ghazl El Mehalla 1–0 Smouha SCPremier League
- 26 December 2024Smouha SC 2–4 Ghazl El MehallaPremier League
- 2 May 2023Ghazl El Mehalla 0–2 Smouha SCPremier League
- 30 December 2022Smouha SC 0–0 Ghazl El MehallaPremier League
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Smouha SC carry a model rating of 6.28 against 6.19 for Ghazl El Mehalla. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 0.93 goals for Smouha SC and 0.76 for Ghazl El Mehalla. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Smouha SC rate 0.46 in attack and 1.49 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Ghazl El Mehalla rate 0.48 and 1.82.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Smouha SC the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Smouha SC against 0.76 for Ghazl El Mehalla. Smouha SC's attack/defence rating is 0.46/1.49 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.48/1.82 for Ghazl El Mehalla.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Smouha SC at home · Ghazl El Mehalla away
League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Smouha SC 5, Ghazl El Mehalla 5.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Smouha SC
- at El Gouna FC19 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 31%
- at Petrojet31 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 31%
- vs National Bank of Egypt24 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 32%
- at Abu Qair Semad10 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 37%
- vs Zamalek SC14 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 22%
Ghazl El Mehalla
- vs Al Ittihad Alexandria20 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 28%
- at Abu Qair Semad31 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 35%
- vs Petrojet25 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 30%
- vs Al Ahly10 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 21%
- at Al Masry16 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 29%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.