Başakşehir vs Gençlerbirliği S.K. Süper Lig prediction & result
Final score: Başakşehir 4-0 Gençlerbirliği S.K..
Before kick-off the model made it 50% Başakşehir, 26% draw, 24% Gençlerbirliği S.K. — fair odds of 2.00, 3.85 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Başakşehir at 50% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 1,294 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 57.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Başakşehir vs Gençlerbirliği S.K.
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 16Muhammed ŞengezerG
- 33Michał KarbownikD
- 23Emin BayramD
- 27Ousseynou BaD
- 38Saba KharebashviliD
- 70Andreas Skov OlsenM
- 8Olivier KemenM
- 20Umut GüneşM
- 77Ivan BrnićM
- 9Davie SelkeF
- 14Eldor ShomurodovF
- 4Onur ErgünM
- 18Jakub KałuzińskiM
- 91Bertuğ YıldırımF
- 19Berkay ÖzcanM
- 11Abbosbek FayzullaevM
- 98Deniz DilmenG
- 15Hamza GürelerD
- 6Onur BulutD
- 21Christopher OperiD
- 70İrfan Can EğribayatG
- 13Pedro PereiraD
- 6Dimitris GoutasD
- 2ThalissonD
- 77Abdurrahim DursunD
- 42Ousmane DiabateM
- 14Adama Malouda TraoréM
- 35Oğulcan ÜlgünM
- 10Franco TongyaM
- 7Tiago GouveiaM
- 9Pedro MendesF
- 83Rafael LuisM
- 20Sekou KoitaF
- 48Salih UçanM
- 23Gökhan AkkanG
- 90Metehan BaltacıD
- 88Fıratcan ÜzümD
- 53Ensar ÇavuşoğluD
- 3Yiğit Hamza AydarD
- 12Victor OrakpoF
Form going into Başakşehir vs Gençlerbirliği S.K.
Başakşehir
Süper Lig
- L0-5away to Amed13 September 2026
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
Süper Lig
- L1-2Kasımpaşa13 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Başakşehir | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 14 | -2 | 11 |
| 16 | Gençlerbirliği S.K. | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 18 | -11 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Başakşehir vs Gençlerbirliği S.K.
- 11 April 2026Başakşehir 3–0 Gençlerbirliği S.K.Süper Lig
- 7 November 2025Gençlerbirliği S.K. 2–1 BaşakşehirSüper Lig
- 7 March 2021Gençlerbirliği S.K. 0–1 BaşakşehirSüper Lig
- 8 November 2020Başakşehir 2–1 Gençlerbirliği S.K.Süper Lig
- 31 January 2020Başakşehir 3–1 Gençlerbirliği S.K.Süper Lig
Leading scorers: Başakşehir and Gençlerbirliği S.K.
Başakşehir
GoalsAssists
- E. Shomurodov71
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
No player in Süper Lig's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Başakşehir beat Gençlerbirliği S.K. 4–0. The model had made a win for Başakşehir its most likely outcome, at 50%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: A. Skov Olsen 9' for Başakşehir, E. Shomurodov 33' for Başakşehir, D. Selke (penalty) 53' for Başakşehir, E. Shomurodov 65' for Başakşehir. On expected goals it finished 2.71–0.37.
How the call on Başakşehir v Gençlerbirliği S.K. has moved
First published on 5 Sep at 47% / 26% / 27% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 8 updates, it read 50% / 26% / 24%: the biggest move is Başakşehir's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- Başakşehir win50%▲ +3
- Draw26%=
- Gençlerbirliği S.K. win24%▼ −3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.