Başakşehir
vs
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
Süper Lig prediction
Our model says: Başakşehir 2–1 Gençlerbirliği S.K.
The model makes it 51% Başakşehir, 25% draw, 24% Gençlerbirliği S.K. — fair odds of 1.96, 4.00 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (10%).
Expected goals: Başakşehir 2.23, Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1.14.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 65%, under 2.5: 35%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Başakşehir vs Gençlerbirliği S.K.
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Başakşehir wins, grey are draws, red are Gençlerbirliği S.K. wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Başakşehir at 51% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 630 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Başakşehir vs Gençlerbirliği S.K.
Başakşehir
- L0-5away to Amed13 September 2026
- L2-3Galatasaray4 September 2026
- D1-1Kasımpaşa30 August 2026
- L1-2away to Trabzonspor23 August 2026
- W2-0Kocaelispor16 August 2026
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
- L1-2Kasımpaşa13 September 2026
- L0-5away to Trabzonspor6 September 2026
- D1-1Erzurumspor FK28 August 2026
- W1-0away to Göztepe23 August 2026
- W2-1Fenerbahçe15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Başakşehir | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 4 |
| 12 | Gençlerbirliği S.K. | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Başakşehir vs Gençlerbirliği S.K.
- 11 April 2026Başakşehir 3–0 Gençlerbirliği S.K.Süper Lig
- 7 November 2025Gençlerbirliği S.K. 2–1 BaşakşehirSüper Lig
- 7 March 2021Gençlerbirliği S.K. 0–1 BaşakşehirSüper Lig
- 8 November 2020Başakşehir 2–1 Gençlerbirliği S.K.Süper Lig
- 31 January 2020Başakşehir 3–1 Gençlerbirliği S.K.Süper Lig
- 1 September 2019Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1–2 BaşakşehirSüper Lig
Leading scorers: Başakşehir and Gençlerbirliği S.K.
Başakşehir
- E. Shomurodov4 goals
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
No player in Süper Lig's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Başakşehir carry a model rating of 6.72 against 6.54 for Gençlerbirliği S.K.. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.23 goals for Başakşehir and 1.14 for Gençlerbirliği S.K.. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Başakşehir rate 0.95 in attack and 1.23 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Gençlerbirliği S.K. rate 0.77 and 1.44.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Gençlerbirliği S.K., while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Başakşehir the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.23 expected goals for Başakşehir against 1.14 for Gençlerbirliği S.K.. Başakşehir's attack/defence rating is 0.95/1.23 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.77/1.44 for Gençlerbirliği S.K..