Çorum FK vs Alanyaspor Süper Lig prediction & result
Final score: Çorum FK 1-2 Alanyaspor.
Before kick-off the model made it 46% Çorum FK, 29% draw, 25% Alanyaspor — fair odds of 2.17, 3.45 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Çorum FK at 46% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Çorum FK vs Alanyaspor
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Marcos FelipeG
- 11Gökhan SazdağıD
- 4Serdar SaatçıD
- 6Hrvoje SmolčićD
- 24Andrei BorzaD
- 20Ylber RamadaniM
- 16FredyM
- 7Cengiz ÜnderM
- 10Mohammed DiomandeM
- 89Alexandros KyziridisM
- 19Jesús RamírezF
- 2Çağlar SöyüncüD
- 30Ahmed IldızM
- 14Youssoufa MoukokoF
- 26Ermin MahmićM
- 17Emircan GürlükF
- 18Erhan ErentürkG
- 5Alexandre PenetraD
- 15Arda ŞengülD
- 21Göktan GürpüzM
- 48Paulo VictorG
- 3Nuno LimaD
- 5Fidan AlitiD
- 20Fatih AksoyD
- 94Florent HadergjonajM
- 42Gaius MakoutaM
- 55Baran Ali GezekM
- 11Ruan Pereira DuarteM
- 22Paolo FernandesF
- 16Hwang Ui-JoF
- 19Iván CédricF
- 12Meschak EliaF
- 7Ibrahim KayaF
- 10Ianis HagiM
- 17Arda UsluoğluF
- 23Mert Furkan BayramG
- 4Bedirhan ÖzyurtD
- 88Yusuf ÖzdemirM
- 26İzzet ÇelikM
- 8Enes KeskinM
Form going into Çorum FK vs Alanyaspor
Çorum FK
Süper Lig
- W5-1away to Samsunspor12 September 2026
Alanyaspor
Süper Lig
- D2-2Göztepe12 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Çorum FK | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 18 | 15 | +3 | 13 |
| 11 | Alanyaspor | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Çorum FK vs Alanyaspor
- 4 December 2025Çorum FK 0–5 AlanyasporTürkiye Kupası
Leading scorers: Çorum FK and Alanyaspor
Çorum FK
GoalsAssists
- A. Kyziridis44
- C. Ramírez41
- C. Ünder41
Alanyaspor
No player in Süper Lig's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Alanyaspor won 2–1 at Çorum FK. The model had leaned towards a win for Çorum FK at 46% and given a win for Alanyaspor 25%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: G. Makouta 67' for Alanyaspor, J. Ramirez 76' for Çorum FK, A. Usluoglu 79' for Alanyaspor. On expected goals it finished 1.16–1.16.
How the call on Çorum FK v Alanyaspor has moved
First published on 5 Sep at 41% / 29% / 30% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 7 updates, it read 46% / 29% / 25%: the biggest move is Çorum FK's chance of winning, up 5 points.
- Çorum FK win46%▲ +5
- Draw29%=
- Alanyaspor win25%▼ −5
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.